wawarriors4 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 67 in Spotsylvania, awaiting an inch of Snow……….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 27 minutes ago, H2O said: I like your map better even if it says the same thing. Pretty blues!! More for you! Yay! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 53/33, was a rather cloudy morning but sun has been out for an hour or so now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Good forecast. But not sure in this case how useful current satellite/radar/obs are. There is no real synoptic feature we are tracking. No surface low of consequence. I’m not sure how we use current anything (including models) to pin down a very localized meso scale band of precip associated with a jet streak. I suppose it we really want to get deep in the weeds we could compare upper levels wind observations with guidance but I’m good. Frankly without the nwp this is the kind of discreet thing that probably went totally un forecasted 50 years ago. Not that missing a very localized 1-3” event was some kind of catastrophic problem. Somehow we survived. Right. We try now to find tune too much, using microscopes instead of binoculars. Trying to pinpoint streaks is mostly useless. Is it 15 miles “wide” or 50. I disagree in that for the rest of the way one can look at satellite. Wv, radar and compare in about 90 minute intervals of how things are progressing and forecast from that and not model depictions Do not need a defined low /synoptic feature to be able to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, mappy said: 53/33, was a rather cloudy morning but sun has been out for an hour or so now. Max sun right now. One key will be temps about 10pm. 45 and we gotta wait about 6 more hours but 35-38 we will be snowing in 2-3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhode Islander in Balto Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Beautiful day, 58 degrees. Brisket is in the smoker, baked beans in the oven. BBQ today, snow TV tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 On to the 18z models... first up HRRRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 55/33 partly sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 53/31 cloudy here nw of Staunton 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: 53/31 cloudy here nw of Staunton 61/34 on Grounds at UVA. Hope you enjoy this one -- it's my dream to be in a storm where I'm in the one (okay, two) county(ies) that has a WSW while all the others watch. Live out my dream for me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 The NAM places two realistic patches of 2 to 3. Could be grassy areas only with these warm roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Got to throw out the obligatory it’s too warm for snow. But then we get 2-4” anyway and people act surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Got to throw out the obligatory it’s too warm for snow. But then we get 2-4” anyway and people act surprised. I'm Reisterstown-Glyndon. If we get 1 1/2', you get 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: 61/34 on Grounds at UVA. Hope you enjoy this one -- it's my dream to be in a storm where I'm in the one (okay, two) county(ies) that has a WSW while all the others watch. Live out my dream for me! Dude, I went to UVa for undergrad and my doctorate. Someday we should meet for a beer at Basic City or Pro Re Nata or some place in Cville. Never had a snowstorm that specifically targeted my county before, and I am 46 years old and I grew up in upstate NY. Counting myself super lucky with this one (IF it verifies lol). I will definitely post a few pics of my property and the river from my atv if it pans out. Like Jebman says, I hope everyone gets absolutely demolished with heavy snow. eta: I actually am feeling pressure to stay up all night and report live, but I am not sure if I am young enough to do that anymore lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Hrrr is better up here @North Balti Zen 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Hrrr is better up here @North Balti Zen 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Here comes the NAM in SE lol. Love these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Here comes the NAM in SE lol. Love these models. Not sure if it’s SE — just looks a lot wetter. edit. NAM’d 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, mappy said: This really steams my carpet. I have no clue what that means other than it’s the worst NW trend in the history of NW trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks like the euro was another slight bump nw Are these incremental bumps NW yielding more snow at this point? Its not like there is a cutoff with a bunch of moisture available just to the SE. Discounting the GFS which looks off its rocker, the disparity between models at this point is really specifically where the best lift ends up for the longest duration, before it wanes as the trough shifts east and the coastal gets going. Moisture is pretty limited, so it's all about maximizing it by being in the right place wrt to the upper jet streak/ localized vorticity max, and ofc cold enough temps. Mostly small scale stuff that there won't be complete agreement on, so probably won't know until its happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, mappy said: I like dark blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not sure if it’s SE — just looks a lot wetter. Not everywhere. Went from 6” to 3” here. It’s bing ponging the banding around every run. Useless model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I like the NAM 12k again. Bunnies of eastern HoCo rejoice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Are these incremental bumps NW yielding more snow at this point? Its not like there is a cutoff with a bunch of moisture available just to the SE. Discounting the GFS which looks off its rocker, the disparity between models at this point is really specifically where the best lift ends up for the longest duration, before it wanes as the trough shifts east and the coastal gets going. Moisture is pretty limited, so it's all about maximizing it by being in the right place wrt to the upper jet streak/ localized vorticity max, and ofc cold enough temps. Mostly small scale stuff that there won't be complete agreement on, so probably won't know until its happening. Every incremental shift matters when you started on the 0” precip line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Looks like the NAM has given up on its shotgun pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 BTW y’all, where has Yoda been? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 DP in Winchester is 28. Will drop like a rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 NAM nest is close to a best possible outcome. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Nam is a ripper 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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