CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: It was funny that people were giving the GFS king status so often, when in reality it was just the euro being non-king like altering their perception. The tendency for some to anoint king status to one model over another is just silly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: One thing we've fought consistently ever since things got going in early Jan is extremely small areas good lift and qpf. It's all little frontogen, jet streaks, or upglide stuff in very small target zones. Drilling down 2+ days in advance is just an exercise in watching noise and letting your brain fill in trends and blanks when there may not be any. I'm done tracking 50mi wide swaths until nowcast time. ROI sucks otherwise. Lol This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: The tendency for some to anoint king status to one model over another is just silly. Agreed. I’d argue the CMC has actually performed very well as of late. Never really bought into the ice storm either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Btw, I consider the widespread WWA for our forum an absolute win for this thread. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Btw, I consider the widespread WWA for our forum an absolute win for this thread. No one was expecting this a few days ago…win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Just now, North Balti Zen said: Btw, I consider the widespread WWA for our forum an absolute win for this thread. I’ll recommend making a thread for every threat going forward #GoodJuJu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 12z RGEM and 15z RAP look good to me... 12z ggem isn't bad either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 HRRR looks good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 HRDPS looks good still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Expecting about 2” up here with some help from elevation and colder temps. Same for PSUland mappyland and clskinsland. I’m sure local 3+“ reports will pop up, but I like a general 2” for our general tier. Someone is going to see a very localized QPF max, as has been the trend all season (as Bob chill referred to above) Models have struggled to pin down that area all season long, but they appear to be honing in on the general area between CHO and Staunton this go around. We won’t know until game time. The biggest question mark for me is the immediate metros (UHI areas) How do temps fare? Do they see heavy enough returns to overcome some of the temp issues that come with a marginal setup where precip and cold are in a foot race? Biggest upside and downside potential exists in this area IMO, especially DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eaglesrck63 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Balmy 56 degrees here in North East, MD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 State College and Blacksburg have added WWAs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 58 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Btw, I consider the widespread WWA for our forum an absolute win for this thread. Not completely widespread . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 34 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: All aboard team derpy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Not completely widespread . It’s a WWA for like 75% of the forum? Pretty widespread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Model time over and obs satellite radar and wv on Several areas of precip want to merge around mid Atlantic. it’s incorrect to suggest that 32/33 vs 31/32 is going to make a difference at 3/4am in the morning. I think most of DC will be like 27-30 anyway come crunch time and rise very little until precip shuts off Super Sunday afternoon. Thought when I posted first forecast that 1-2” was solid and 3-5” a 10-15% chance and have to upgrade that now to 50/50 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Model time over and obs satellite radar and wv on Several areas of precip want to merge around mid Atlantic. it’s incorrect to suggest that 32/33 vs 31/32 is going to make a difference at 3/4am in the morning. I think most of DC will be like 27-30 anyway come crunch time and rise very little until precip shuts off Super Sunday afternoon. Thought when I posted first forecast that 1-2” was solid and 3-5” a 10-15% chance and have to upgrade that now to 50/50 I’m gonna need a water vapor update at some point. Please and thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 60.4/42. ground burning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 WB 12Z EURO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Euro for those interested 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, H2O said: 60.4/42. ground burning I hit 60 earlier, but it has backed off to 55. This must mean something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2m temps don’t equal ground temps. I have very low expectations of accumulation on roads, etc, after a week of late March weather, but I suppose there might be some slick sidewalks if it comes down moderately. Maybe I’m thinking I still live in Bethesda, but we shall see. I’m certainly rooting for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Model time over and obs satellite radar and wv on Several areas of precip want to merge around mid Atlantic. it’s incorrect to suggest that 32/33 vs 31/32 is going to make a difference at 3/4am in the morning. I think most of DC will be like 27-30 anyway come crunch time and rise very little until precip shuts off Super Sunday afternoon. Thought when I posted first forecast that 1-2” was solid and 3-5” a 10-15% chance and have to upgrade that now to 50/50 Good forecast. But not sure in this case how useful current satellite/radar/obs are. There is no real synoptic feature we are tracking. No surface low of consequence. I’m not sure how we use current anything (including models) to pin down a very localized meso scale band of precip associated with a jet streak. I suppose it we really want to get deep in the weeds we could compare upper levels wind observations with guidance but I’m good. Frankly without the nwp this is the kind of discreet thing that probably went totally un forecasted 50 years ago. Not that missing a very localized 1-3” event was some kind of catastrophic problem. Somehow we survived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, mappy said: Euro for those interested I like your map better even if it says the same thing. Pretty blues!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Looks like the euro was another slight bump nw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I hit 60 earlier, but it has backed off to 55. This must mean something. It means it dropped 5°. Where’s my red tag? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: I hit 60 earlier, but it has backed off to 55. This must mean something. That It’s Happening?? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 HRRR another bump NW 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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