Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-504-506-508-VAZ037>039-050>054-502- 132100- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.220213T0600Z-220213T2100Z/ District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges- Anne Arundel-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Albemarle-Greene- Madison-Orange-Culpeper-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Southern Fauquier- 1000 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with up to 4 inches locally. * WHERE...The District of Columbia, portions of central, northeast and northern Maryland and central, northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 1 AM to 4 PM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest accumulations will be on non- paved surfaces. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. When venturing outside, watch your first few steps taken on steps, sidewalks, and driveways, which could be icy and slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury. && 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Loudoun left out of WWA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1-2” locally up to 4” for the WWA up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Loudoun left out of WWA? No….just not written in…but map has it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Loudoun left out of WWA? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 MDZ004>006-503-505-507-VAZ027>031-040-501-505-506-131800- /O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0015.220213T0300Z-220213T1800Z/ Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Northwest Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page- Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun- 1000 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches, with up to 4 inches locally. * WHERE...Portions of central, north central and northern Maryland and northern and northwest Virginia. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST S 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Loudoun left out of WWA? Eastern Loudoun is WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 @mappy’s been GRAF’d 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 For those further SW... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 VAZ025-508-132100- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0004.220213T0600Z-220213T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0004.220213T0300Z-220213T2100Z/ Augusta-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- 1000 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with up to 8 inches locally. * WHERE...Augusta County and the Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Sunday. (snip) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok stick to your narrative that inside 100 we don’t see significant shifts. I never doubted it. But most here would agree we do. Adios 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: clearly the only significant shift would mean going from a 1-3" storm to a 12-18" storm. I'm certain he realizes at this point his posts are no better than that osfan chick. I recall him mentioning that since he isn't getting what he wants he was stepping away....guess that's changed...of course i said i've lost interest in this winter and yet here I am. Snow is an incredible drug We’re talking about two different things. Remember when I made that comment the GFS and UKMET were showing a 6-10” snowstorm across our area by digging a NS feature and partially phasing. It was a significant synoptic event. I said unfortunately given the pattern the more progressive solutions on other guidance was more likely. My point was we would likely see convergence on the correct synoptic solution around 100 hours and after that only minor adjustments. I think at one point I even said “if we want a SIGNIFICANT snowstorm we do not want to see the Gfs/uk to trend toward the euro around 100 because then that idea is likely off the table. I was talking about the 6-10” major synoptic event that involved some steam phasing and the multiple vort interactions they were showing at that time. IMO we did see that. The uk and Gfs lost the phasing idea and fell in line. And that is still the correct synoptic setup. The coastal is really a non factor. I know we can see minor changes inside 100. A lot of my 1-3” snows up here aren’t even on the radar until inside 48. I got 1” in December and it wasn’t even talked about and didn’t pop up on guidance until inside 24 hours. The thought it could was there earlier but nothing actually had it. But I’m not here to try to track some discreet vort that squeezes out an unexpected 2” or some jet streak induced meso band from medium or long range. Imo that’s kinda a waste of time. I think my comment 3 days ago was misunderstood. I don’t hate a 1-3” snow. I post pics of minor events here all the time. I just am not tracking it. Even in the absolute worst dreg years the lowest snow total we can get up here is about 10”. We will get several 1-3” storms every winter no matter how bad. They just happen. Often without much advance notice. And I enjoy them in the moment. But I’m not spending 10 days watching every model run for them. But that’s just me. I have no issue if others want to try to track a minor meso scale event! Go for it! If they have success they are better at this then I am! Can we see major synoptic changes inside 100. Sure. But it’s rare. Looking back over the last 7 years since the resolution upgrades started happening on the global systems, we just don’t see them go off on major tangents inside 100 much anymore. It’s like 10% or less. The Gfs was still prone to crazy runs in close but the recent upgrades seem to have helped it also. Yea we see one run each cycle go off sometime. A single uk run. A single Gfs. The ggem. And that trips some up sometimes. They see one outlier and think “here comes the trend”. But if you know to ignore the outlier fluke each cycle the consensus forecast for major synoptic features has been amazingly accurate inside 100 hours lately. I’m sure eventually there will be a huge bust again but the odds seem low enough that watching every run with baited breath in anticipation of said change seems pretty emotionally draining to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @mappy’s been GRAF’d I like this one better 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 And to the west... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1000 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 Rockingham-Western Highland-Eastern Highland- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 1000 AM EST Sat Feb 12 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches, with up to 6 inches locally. * WHERE...Portions of northwest and western Virginia and eastern West Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I like this one better Lol widespread 3 to 6 ftw 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Never seen this before. Warning for 3-6” with 8” lollis. I will believe it when I see it, but hoping to get a couple inches otg for the Super Bowl. I hope everyone’s backyard overperforms! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 It has been awhile since we had an overperformer, i'm game 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It has been awhile since we had an overperformer, i'm game Would be nice for it to over perform for all and not some 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Frankly Im absolutely amazed at how good the guidance has gotten. The waves last week are a perfect example. Yea exactly where the ice would be shifted some because pinning down if the surface would be 30 v 35 from several days is crazy to expect. But the globals converged on the rain snow line running somewhere through southern VT from 7 days out then never wavered at all. I was paying attention because I was planning to ski up there. They absolutely nailed the major Synoptics of a progressive wave from 7 days! That would have been unheard of just 5-10 years ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I like this one better 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, mappy said: Would be nice for it to over perform for all and not some Yes. Just blanket the whole area with a nice snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I like this one better Actually kinda surprised the snow-conservative Tasselmeyer tweeted the more robust model...maybe it's happening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Little love for northern areas - axis remains farther south when compared to the NAM3km, etc... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It has been awhile since we had an overperformer, i'm game QUEST!!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: Little love for northern areas - axis remains farther south when compared to the NAM3km, etc... The GFS has been pretty consistent. We are like 12 hours to onset. Either going to score a coup or go down with the ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Beware, of the 10-1 ratio snow plots, The GFS has DCA with over 4" but the GFS never gets the 2m temp below freezing. In this case the pivotwx snow depth product is likely to be better. Of course, the models haven't yet converged on where the heaviest precip band will be located. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 We know this ends for us up north. What the GFS is showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 The Gfs is way too broad with that band. It’s a function of its lack of resolution compared to some other guidance. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong wrt where it places it. But it won’t be as broad and uniform. The high res are right in their interpretation of what that will look like regardless of where it ends up. Placing a banding feature like this isn’t something that’s high confidence. In a more typical situation we don’t even try until nowcast. Unfortunately that’s the whole deal here so… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 The Gfs is way too broad with that band. It’s a function of its lack of resolution compared to some other guidance. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong wrt where it places it. But it won’t be as broad and uniform. The high res are right in their interpretation of what that will look like regardless of where it ends up. Placing a banding feature like this isn’t something that’s high confidence. In a more typical situation we don’t even try until nowcast. Unfortunately that’s the whole deal here so…The output on the GFS is reminding me of last week’s ‘ice storm.’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Thanks PSU for telling us how great the models are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The Gfs is way too broad with that band. It’s a function of its lack of resolution compared to some other guidance. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong wrt where it places it. But it won’t be as broad and uniform. The high res are right in their interpretation of what that will look like regardless of where it ends up. Placing a banding feature like this isn’t something that’s high confidence. In a more typical situation we don’t even try until nowcast. Unfortunately that’s the whole deal here so… It has been off for the past few storms on important details, even inside 36 hours. The storm 2 weeks ago it still had my yard getting 10-12" just before game time, while every other model was 5-6 with the heavier snow east. In this case it has been persistent with high end advisory/low end warning snowfall across this area. No other model shows that, and, IT'S NOT HAPPENING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: It has been off for the past few storms on important details, even inside 36 hours. The storm 2 weeks ago it still had my yard getting 10-12" just before game time, while every other model was 5-6 with the heavier snow east. In this case it has been persistent with high end advisory/low end warning snowfall across this area. No other model shows that, and, IT'S NOT HAPPENING! It was funny that people were giving the GFS king status so often, when in reality it was just the euro being non-king like altering their perception. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: It has been off for the past few storms on important details, even inside 36 hours. The storm 2 weeks ago it still had my yard getting 10-12" just before game time, while every other model was 5-6 with the heavier snow east. In this case it has been persistent with high end advisory/low end warning snowfall across this area. No other model shows that, and, IT'S NOT HAPPENING! One thing we've fought consistently ever since things got going in early Jan is extremely small areas good lift and qpf. It's all little frontogen, jet streaks, or upglide stuff in very small target zones. Drilling down 2+ days in advance is just an exercise in watching noise and letting your brain fill in trends and blanks when there may not be any. I'm done tracking 50mi wide swaths until nowcast time. ROI sucks otherwise. Lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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