aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said: Concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: You mean shifting an insignificant jet streak induced 1-3” band around a few miles. That is not a significant synoptic change. There isn’t even really a synoptic setup to shift as around 100 hours guidance converged on the fact the coastal would be a total non factor and the NS and SS would stay un phased. Now we’re just praying to get lucky with a meso scale feature to get a minor snowfall. Agree, but this has been the goal for this thread since the beginning. Tracking the small scale features, and hoping for a modest event vs smoking cirrus for places further north. Trends have been good for that. The larger scale stuff has been baked in for days. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 The quest is for blues rather than purples for a reason. The quest's objective is doable. QUEST! ETA: What CAPE said. My expectations in starting this thread were in the title. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You mean shifting an insignificant jet streak induced 1-3” band around a few miles. That is not a significant synoptic change. There isn’t even really a synoptic setup to shift as around 100 hours guidance converged on the fact the coastal would be a total non factor and the NS and SS would stay un phased. Now we’re just praying to get lucky with a meso scale feature to get a minor snowfall. Ok stick to your narrative that inside 100 we don’t see significant shifts. I never doubted it. But most here would agree we do. Adios 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: The quest is for blues rather than purples for a reason. The quest's objective is doable. QUEST! You had a vision of this quest when you made the thread. Some call it a………….Vision Quest. I’ll see myself out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3K looks nice up here 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok stick to your narrative that inside 100 we don’t see significant shifts. I never doubted it. But most here would agree we do. Adios clearly the only significant shift would mean going from a 1-3" storm to a 12-18" storm. I'm certain he realizes at this point his posts are no better than that osfan chick. I recall him mentioning that since he isn't getting what he wants he was stepping away....guess that's changed...of course i said i've lost interest in this winter and yet here I am. Snow is an incredible drug 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok stick to your narrative that inside 100 we don’t see significant shifts. I never doubted it. But most here would agree we do. Adios The changes have been pretty subtle though, and all small in scale. Mostly it's minor shifts in the location/duration/strength of the jet streak on the front side of the trough that are going to make the difference between a coating, and maybe 2-3 inches. That works for most here given how things have played out this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I put more weight in the NAM nest vs. the NAM12, but accums could ended being splotchy (as depicted in the NAM12) since those areas that aren't beneath a heavier band will end up having their temps stay a bit elevated, which will only work to further reduce their accums. If the banding occurs where currently depicted in the CAMs, folks N/W and in higher elevations will do better with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, mappy said: 3K looks nice up here I am listening... (1.5" to get to 10 on the season for me) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I am listening... (1.5" to get to 10 on the season for me) Oops, I posted hrrr and not the nam, here’s 3K 2-3 for us 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: 1-2 for us, but going to depend on where banding sets up That's 2-3" around my hood....sold!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 That would absolutely make this a successful quest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Just now, leesburg 04 said: That's 2-3" around my hood....sold!! That was the hrrr, I shared the wrong pic. Nam looks good for you too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Might as well look at all the Mesos at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Oops, I posted hrrr and not the nam, here’s 3K I like this one even better! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Oops, I posted hrrr and not the nam, here’s 3K 2-3 for us Annapolis jackpot again! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I like this one even better! Ha I bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Just now, ThePhotoGuy said: Annapolis jackpot again! Sure is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, mappy said: Oops, I posted hrrr and not the nam, here’s 3K 2-3 for us 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, H2O said: You will probably start as rain, but temp drops to 32 after a couple hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: Agree, but this has been the goal for this thread since the beginning. Tracking the small scale features, and hoping for a modest event vs smoking cirrus for places further north. Trends have been good for that. The larger scale stuff has been baked in for days. I know…but I probably should have been more clear when I made my 100 hours comment (although I did say meso scale features aren’t resolved until inside 24) that I was talking about major synoptic events. A 1-3” snow can pop up out of almost nothing at the last minute so long as there is cold around. We get lucky with some discreet vort or in this case a jet enhanced banding feature disassociated from any significant synoptic event. But I don’t waste time tracking those from range. Partly because their not really my cup of tea but also because it’s not realistic to pin that stuff down at range. So it’s a waste of time Imo. Once the 100 hour guidance convergence made it clear a significant synoptic event was off the table I checked out for the most part and I’ve only made a few random comments mostly just to add levity (and I did go off on that one political post sorry @mappy) but I’ve tried to stay off to the side and allow those that wanted to track this their fun without my debbing. I’m paying attention now because we’re within 24 hours so it’s worth it (in my opinion) to look at these discreet features that could give some of us a minor snowfall. That and I’m stuck at home with a sick kid so why not. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know…but I probably should have been more clear when I made my 100 hours comment (although I did say meso scale features aren’t resolved until inside 24) that I was talking about major synoptic events. A 1-3” snow can pop up out of almost nothing at the last minute so long as there is cold around. We get lucky with some discreet virt or in this case a jet enhanced banding feature disassociated from any significant synoptic event. But I don’t waste time teaching those from range. Partly because their not really my cup of tea but also because it’s not realistic to pin that stuff down at range. So it’s a waste of time. Once the 100 hour guidance convergence made it clear a significant synoptic event was off the table I checked out for the most part and I’ve only made a few random comments mostly just to add levity (and I did go off on that one political post sorry @mappy) but I’ve tried to stay off to the side and allow those that wanted to track this their fun without my debbing. I’m paying attention now because we’re within 24 hours so it’s worth it (in my opinion) to look at these discreet features that could give some of us a minor snowfall. That and I’m stuck at home with a sick kid so why not. Hope your child feels better, important stuff…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: That would absolutely make this a successful quest! Since this quest has apparently been a success, can the next quest be in search of the Holy Grail? I'm quite certain this group can do better than Monty Python......then again, maybe not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: You will probably start as rain, but temp drops to 32 after a couple hours Snow maps never lie. I'm holding this 3.5" as verbatim. Solid plan on my part if I do say so myself. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 42 minutes ago, H2O said: I’m going with a general 1-1.5” for me. Temps and not a ton of precip will be the issues. And I should have added a /s to my post for sarcasm. I’m happy with whatever falls. I think most knew it was in jest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 30 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: clearly the only significant shift would mean going from a 1-3" storm to a 12-18" storm. I'm certain he realizes at this point his posts are no better than that osfan chick. I recall him mentioning that since he isn't getting what he wants he was stepping away....guess that's changed...of course i said i've lost interest in this winter and yet here I am. Snow is an incredible drug 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 WWA issued for my location 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: WWA issued for my location 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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