WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: The one place that has a better chance for heavier snow is the higher terrain of western VA. Most of the guidance has it, and it seems the upper jet streak, localized vorticity/ terrain effects all coincide there. The favorable location of the right rear quadrant(entrance) of the upper jet is really the key element for producing a period of snow for our area. Was reading last night that the most divergence occurs in the right entrance and left exit regions of a jet stream with the highest divergence on the north side. That would be the left exit region in this case would it not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Just now, Anyweather said: Short Pump thinks you should take the day off. Haha, can’t help short pump. Need an I66-I70 max strip this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Haha, can’t help short pump. Need an I66-I70 max strip this time That certainly looks like how it’s setting up. If I get 2” at my house with snow during the day, I’ll be thrilled. Good luck up there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Missed that Sterling set some very localized WSWs in Augusta and Nelson counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, The Ole Bucket said: Missed that Sterling set some very localized WSWs in Augusta and Nelson counties. Gonna be north of there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Was reading last night that the most divergence occurs in the right entrance and left exit regions of a jet stream with the highest divergence on the north side. That would be the left exit region in this case would it not? You have to visualize it from the perspective of an air parcel entering the jet. Might help to go to 250 mb wind and hit play or scroll back and forth. Then flip to the precip panels and see what's happening at the surface and when. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Good morning to everyone on #TeamHerpderp!! 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m up. Time to get back to work before the 12z runs. How far north you guys want it? couple ticks and a few tads will do for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 10 hours ago, Ji said: 10 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: SREFS are wetter and …. wait for it …. farther …… wait …… NW!! You probably didnt even check No need to, they perform the same hype fail just prior to every single winter event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Looking good for mby and Augusta county in general: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAYAFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches is expected, with locally up to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Augusta and Nelson Counties, and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From late tonight through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on hazardous travel due to the potential for accumulating snow on roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation arrives before midnight as a rain/snow mix before becoming all snow during the overnight hours. Snow could become heavy at times Sunday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 @WinterWxLuvr I will use the 6z 12km NAM as an example- It is snowing pretty good in your area at this point. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: couple ticks and a few tads will do for me On it. Working to merge all of the southern precip into the band as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 8 hours ago, CAPE said: It is stubborn with expanding the blues. We will just have to give it a few more runs. So what you're saying is that we really just can't know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Looking good for mby and Augusta county in general: ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAYAFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches is expected, with locally up to 8 inches possible. * WHERE...Augusta and Nelson Counties, and Central Virginia Blue Ridge. * WHEN...From late tonight through Sunday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on hazardous travel due to the potential for accumulating snow on roadways. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation arrives before midnight as a rain/snow mix before becoming all snow during the overnight hours. Snow could become heavy at times Sunday morning. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && Bring 50-75 miles west for us in WV (Snowshoe) maybe with that Jet Streak + Elevation we can all get into the game ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Yes it is the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: @WinterWxLuvr I will use the 6z 12km NAM as an example- It is snowing pretty good in your area at this point. I wasn’t saying you were wrong. Actually last night I was thinking about how sometimes on the backside of systems you get these impressive deform bands and then was looking at your comment on the jet streak. So I started reading and what I read in several places was that the two regions that have the best lift are the right entrance and left exit. It also said the best lift was in the left exit and I thought that might explain those deforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6z euro anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: 6z euro anyone? They’re still asleep 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 It takes time to cobble together multiple posts with one image on each one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 6z euro anyone? Similar to last run, maybe a tad north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: 6z euro anyone? I ran out of upload bandwidth. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6z Euro is a nice 2 inch strip along 95, 1-2 NW of 95, trace-1 SE of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Where do I initial? Full signature at the bottom I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks a little better overall I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 My local forecast is for a max of 2", which aligns with my thoughts yesterday for my yard, despite what the GFS still shows lol. An inch will get me over 20 for the season. I'll gladly take that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 seems like a real possibility for most. I bet someone scores a surprise 4” in NOVA. Regardless, I miss my January snowpack so looking to get some back here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: 2 seems like a real possibility for most. I bet someone scores a surprise 4” in NOVA. Regardless, I miss my January snowpack so looking to get some back here. Sneaky storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 HRRR 12z looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Cold front blasting through here. Big wind shift, gusty 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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