North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Discuss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 WB 6z EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6z EURO Looks better, especially orientation and being a bit further north. Pair this with the NAM and it’s a decent morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Discuss. This may actually work. Someone like you starting it, and right as the storm looks turrrrrible, this might bring it back. Pulling for you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Anything that gets Winchester near the bullseye will be met with thunderous applause Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6z EURO Now this will not get it done with the temperature profile we have for Friday and Saturday... This is just white rain here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 GFS has trended towards the Euro at h5, with more of a NS vorticity lobe rather than an elongated, sharper shortwave more conducive for a phase with the southern vort, which would result in a sharper, deeper trough allowing for a bigger event. Instead we are seeing the depiction of a broader trough with the vorticity disjointed and strung out, and little to no impact from the coastal low, which is too far east. 12z yesterday that produced a significant event- 6z run this morning- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Interstate said: Now this will not get it done with the temperature profile we have for Friday and Saturday... This is just white rain here. Agreed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: GFS has trended towards the Euro at h5, with more of a NS vorticity lobe rather than an elongated, sharper shortwave more conducive for a phase with the southern vort, which would result in a sharper, deeper trough allowing for a bigger event. Instead we are seeing the depiction of a broader trough with the vorticity disjointed and strung out, and little to no impact from the coastal low, which is too far east. 12z yesterday that produced a significant event- 6z run this morning- The further west we can get this broad trough, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The further west we can get this broad trough, the better. If we want to see any impacts from the coastal yes. As it stands the southern vort sliding up on the east side of the developing trough is the focus for any snow we get as depicted. That also induces the coastal low, but too late. Shift that all west some and well.. maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: If we want to see any impacts from the coastal yes. As it stands the southern vort sliding up on the east side of the developing trough is the focus for any snow we get as depicted. That also induces the coastal low, but too late. Shift that all west some and well.. maybe. That ns piece seems to be the wild card. Gonna be interested to see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6z EPS is slightly west with the trough, and mean low position is slightly closer to the coast. Trough still positively tilted and results in the same general outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Discuss. 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 44 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Anything that gets Winchester near the bullseye will be met with thunderous applause Meteorological Impossibility. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Throw out the NAM, which is a complete outlier, (and should almost always be thrown out on principle) the preponderance of guidance suggests a minor event on the order of an inch to maybe as much as 3 in a few places. Any changes that occur going forward would probably be minor, with a better chance of it going the wrong way given the overall fast/progressive nature of the pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 A coating of snow on SB Sunday following a Spring-like Saturday would be lovely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Meteorological Impossibility. Consult with DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I know the 06z GFS was posted in the LR thread but adding it here. I'd pay about $200 for it to be right, at least. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Meanwhile, the 06z GEFS ticked back up the snow totals but has the jackpot area essentially the same. Looks closer to yesterday's 06z but still work to do. See a GIF of the last 4 runs below: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I know the 06z GFS was posted in the LR thread but adding it here. I'd pay about $200 for it to be right, at least. I’ll chip in a few ducketts for that! Lol. Hoping we can keep that look or juice it up a smidge more throughout today’s future runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I know the 06z GFS was posted in the LR thread but adding it here. I'd pay about $200 for it to be right, at least. I wouldn't mind that either, but the GFS has been a bit unsteady lately. Still think 1-3 seems reasonable, maybe a bit more down your way if the GFS has a clue. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I know the 06z GFS was posted in the LR thread but adding it here. I'd pay about $200 for it to be right, at least. Shows the typical screw zones, so lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I know the 06z GFS was posted in the LR thread but adding it here. I'd pay about $200 for it to be right, at least. It’s gonna go north. You might get an inch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Another potential issue with the GFS (again) is that it is more aggressive with the cold. It is significantly colder than other guidance while precip is falling. CMC and Euro are marginal at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Another potential issue with the GFS (again) is that it is more aggressive with the cold. It is significantly colder than other guidance while precip is falling. CMC and Euro are marginal at the surface. I'd bet the 06z NAM must have been the same then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I know the 06z GFS was posted in the LR thread but adding it here. I'd pay about $200 for it to be right, at least. 1 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wtkidz Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 This was gleaned from th 3:50 Am disco from Sterling. Quote Most likely snowfall amounts are currently projected at less than 2 inches for most areas, but both a low end scenario of little to no snow /and/ a high end scenario of several inches are still on the table. Just sayin’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 "high end scenario of several inches" what we do best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: Another potential issue with the GFS (again) is that it is more aggressive with the cold. It is significantly colder than other guidance while precip is falling. CMC and Euro are marginal at the surface. 33-34F temps with light daytime snow ain’t gonna do it in mid February. So need it to snow more at night or thump for a few hours. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now