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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022


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After being socked in convective debris all morning, it has finally mixed out around noon with clear skies & full sun.

Today's record high is 101*F, which (unless mixing overachieves big time as the HRRR indicates) should be safe.

Saturday's record high for DFW is 103*F  which (based on current model projections) is in jeopardy of being broken.

 

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As one last weak shortwave track around the periphery of the ridge, some convection has developed this morning in SE Oklahoma and SW Arkansas along with mid-level cloud cover, moving SSE.

Although it shouldn't have a huge impact on the overall forecast, it may help to keep temps a bit cooler than expected in areas affected by the cloud debris & outflow boundaries, depending on how widespread the activity becomes.

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If DFW makes it to at least 105°F today, it would be the earliest Dallas has seen a temp this warm in 95 years, only beat by 5/27/1927 with a high of 107°F. It would also be the earliest Dallas has ever seen a daily average this warm on record (92°F)

 

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The ridge on the Euro keeps the vorticity in the Caribbean far enough S it runs into Central America without developing, op GFS takes it near MX/Belize border near major hurricane strength, but keeps what remains deep in the BoC.  I wouldn't mind a TS, I'm watering the foundation.  Even a Cat 2, and I'm 50 miles inland, kills power, and that would be bad.  I'm fat, 58, and w/o CPAP, I'd be sleeping on my side, snoring, and waking up with a sore throat.  In a hot bedroom.  But a TS, if it doesn't Allison (my house, water right up to the door, but wife's primos and abuelos, carpet ripping and dry well stripping, not fun.  And I was a lot younger then.  1st ETOH beverage into NASCAR race.

 

Hurricane Dolly, in the day, landfall in SPI and still nice rains here.  Not sure how to break the drought this late in June w/o a TC.  Sea breeze is not overcoming the ridge so far this year.

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

I think when all is said and done this summer makes 2011 look tame. 

Way too early to make that call, IMO.

We certainly won't be seeing the consecutive weeks of widespread 100*F+ highs that we did in 2011, and what seems to be persistent -NAO blocking will also throw a wrench into how the pattern evolves

That said, it is certainly looking like this Summer will be on the hotter / drier end for the Central and SW part of the country.

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21 hours ago, Powerball said:

Way too early to make that call, IMO.

We certainly won't be seeing the consecutive weeks of widespread 100*F+ highs that we did in 2011, and what seems to be persistent -NAO blocking will also throw a wrench into how the pattern evolves

That said, it is certainly looking like this Summer will be on the hotter / drier end for the Central and SW part of the country.

Exactly. In 2011, Tyler, TX had:

  • 81 total days of 100F+ temperatures.
  • 46 straight days of 100F+ temperatures.
  • 28 days of 105F+ temperatures.
  • And only received about 60% of normal precipitation for a 22-month rainfall deficit that reached -33.61".

We're not looking at anything quite that bad yet.

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