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Texas/Oklahoma Discussion & Obs Thread 2022


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An article yesterday from CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling into question whether  "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name...

An article on CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling to question whether  "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name...

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/31/weather/march-tornado-record-climate/index.html

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

An article yesterday from CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling into question whether  "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name...

An article on CNN also acknowledged what has been a shift in the location where tornadoes seem to be occuring more frequently as a late (Dixie Alley), even calling to question whether  "Tornado Alley" still lives up to its name...

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/31/weather/march-tornado-record-climate/index.html

The drought feedback here is preventing storms from blowing up here, & it's going off to the East.

 

Don't believe Tornado Alley lives up to it's name? Just wait 3 months & ask again.

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13 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

The drought feedback here is preventing storms from blowing up here, & it's going off to the East.

 

Don't believe Tornado Alley lives up to it's name? Just wait 3 months & ask again.

 

Jokes aside with the bolded, there has definitely been a steady statistical decrease in the frequency of tornadoes over the past several decades in the current area known of "Tornado Alley," as well as a shift SE in the statistical center of activity.

https://earthsky.org/earth/tornado-alley-dixie-climate-change/#:~:text=We found a notable decrease,and Kentucky into southern Indiana.

https://theweatherstationexperts.com/is-tornado-alley-shifting-east/

 

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Those studies do suggest the drying out of the atmosphere is part of the reason, but I also suspect it has to do with the wind currents becoming progressively faster.

Systems get shoved off to the east so fast when they blow off the Rockies that it limits the amount of time for atmospheric recovery to support significant severe weather outbreaks, with the window for moisture return being limited the further west you get and updrafts getting sheared apart.

That's probably the same reason it's so difficult to get a storm system like the 1978 Blizzatd today.

 

 

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Supposed to fly out of DFS Monday around 6:30 pm. How big is this upcoming Monday even going to be? Looking at proactively moving my flight as I have a feeling it’ll be a disaster trying to fly out of Dallas 

It might, there's severe storms expected. I strongly recommend getting out earlier, maybe before 4 PM?

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4 minutes ago, Iceresistance said:

It might, there's severe storms expected. I strongly recommend getting out earlier, maybe before 4 PM?

If it’s spotty I’m not worried - can’t tell if it’ll be a slow moving line or just pop up stuff as the trough progresses (and I’m not sure how much moisture will be available). 

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

If it’s spotty I’m not worried - can’t tell if it’ll be a slow moving line or just pop up stuff as the trough progresses (and I’m not sure how much moisture will be available). 

There's also the DFW dry slot, so maybe that might do the trick? :lol:

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Supposed to fly out of DFW Monday around 6:30 pm. How big is this upcoming Monday event going to be? Looking at proactively moving my flight as I have a feeling it’ll be a disaster trying to fly out of Dallas 

Even if the strong/severe storms don't hit DFW directly, there seems to be good model consensus that a thunderstorm complex will develop close enough to DFW's flight paths, which might cause delays merely due to the turbulence while flying through the storm clouds.

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Wednesday - Friday will be a test to see if DFW can continue its 70*F+ streak.

Forecasts highs right now are 71*F Wednesday, and 69*F Thursday/Friday.

If we can survive these 3 days without breaking the streak, it should continue into at least mid-next week.

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

Actually, now that I've taken a deeper look, the record high of 89*F has been shattered for today.

94*F now. Currently ties for the warmest day of the year.

It did help that the fog/stratus this morning stayed away from the Metroplex, so we've had full insolation all day.

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1 hour ago, Powerball said:

94*F now. Currently ties for the warmest day of the year.

It did help that the fog/stratus this morning stayed away from the Metroplex, so we've had full insolation all day.

Now it's 95*F, officially the warmest day of the year.

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