aggiegeog Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 For Tyler area the NAM has us bullseyed. HRRR is all rain here. NAM is typically too dry but solid on temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 3 km NAM is now icing on NW part of HGX's CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Austin now in a Winter Storm warning from tomorrow morning until Wednesday morning. I think temps falling faster than expected. Lows tomorrow night from NWS above freezing, although the warning may have been a priority over the zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 40 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: For Tyler area the NAM has us bullseyed. HRRR is all rain here. NAM is typically too dry but solid on temps. Also I was too focus on Tuesday the entire time and just now realized 0z NAM has FR even on Thursday?? That's insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Also I was too focus on Tuesday the entire time and just now realized 0z NAM has FR even on Thursday?? That's insane. Yep, though I am still on the bandwagon of Thursday being more of a snow event. If that upper low stays closed than I am hopeful that we can end this mess with a couple inches of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 We’re definitely getting a bit worried out here in the Permian Basin. Persistent fzdz prior to the incoming ZR on Tuesday will ice things up decently here with temps generally 27° or lower from tonight through Wednesday AM. RAP and other hi-res have us at a paltry 22° mid-afternoon on Tuesday. NBM is up around 0.25” on the FRAM for these parts by Thursday AM, and that’s with it running a solid 6-8° above current and previous conditions. Hopefully you guys further east don’t get slammed like guidance is saying. Nothing pointing to historic, but certainly no slouch in terms of general impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-302000- /O.EXT.KFWD.WS.W.0001.230130T1200Z-230201T1200Z/ Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill- Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls- Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson- Including the cities of Bowie, Nocona, Gainesville, Sherman, Denison, Bonham, Paris, Graham, Olney, Jacksboro, Decatur, Bridgeport, Carrollton, Denton, Lewisville, Flower Mound, Plano, McKinney, Allen, Frisco, Greenville, Commerce, Cooper, Sulphur Springs, Breckenridge, Mineral Wells, Weatherford, Briar, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath, Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van, Edgewood, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Cisco, Eastland, Ranger, Gorman, Stephenville, Dublin, Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson, Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Comanche, De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Clifton, Meridian, Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, Fairfield, Wortham, Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Killeen, Temple, Fort Hood, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville, Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin, and Calvert 558 AM CST Mon Jan 30 2023 ...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation, primarily in the form of freezing rain and/or sleet is expected. Total ice or sleet accumulations between one tenth and one half of an inch are possible. * WHERE...All of North Texas and western Central Texas. * WHEN...Until 6 AM CST Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Significant impacts to travel may begin as early as Monday afternoon and continue through at least Tuesday night. Elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses will likely be the first to become icy, slick, and hazardous as temperatures hover around or below freezing. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, slow down and use extreme caution particularly when approaching bridges and overpasses. Keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Texas can be found at drivetexas.org. && $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Its bad out there this morning. Elevated surfaces are ice covered across much of the state. Freeze line from Austin to College Station to south of Tyler to Texarkana. This is significantly further south than even the cold models had. SHV likely needs to add a tier of advisories another row of counties south of the warnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 I stayed home today with the kids. Not driving into downtown Fort Worth today from Saginaw. The early release that happens is going to be a disaster. I busted rying to walk from my door to my car. Report from the TCCD NW campus with water icing over quickly enough that if you stood there your shoes would try to stick to the sidewalk. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Why is NAM and HRRR DFW area ice accumulations so different? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 I imagine we will end up somewhere between the two. I've been wondering why the models are struggling so much as well. I thought that the cold air would arrive faster and stronger than what the models advertised but the difference in precipitation is more extreme than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Thundersleet in Tulsa right now! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 4 hours ago, aggiegeog said: Its bad out there this morning. Elevated surfaces are ice covered across much of the state. Freeze line from Austin to College Station to south of Tyler to Texarkana. This is significantly further south than even the cold models had. SHV likely needs to add a tier of advisories another row of counties south of the warnings. true. but i wonder if the colder than forecasted temp will mean more sleet than FR for DFW, which is a better outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, vwgrrc said: true. but i wonder if the colder than forecasted temp will mean more sleet than FR for DFW, which is a better outcome. Per Twitter, heavier showers/t-storms W side of Metroplex are sleet. I think the depth of the cold air in just a light rain/drizzle situation determines if it sleet or snow. P-type seems to be one of the more difficult things to forecast. I wonder if FWD would do a 18Z sounding for p-type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Not much precip wise at DFW yet but Denton getting quite the weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Tyler still has not rose above 32 today. Fell to 32 around midnight and won't likely reach 33 until Wed maybe even Thu. All of that while now under a Flood Watch in addition to the winter storm warning. Not sure I have seen that combo before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Looks like the middle of DFW isn't getting much. It has been more West Dallas/Fort Worth/Denton) and some of the east locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 44 minutes ago, weatherextreme said: Looks like the middle of DFW isn't getting much. It has been more West Dallas/Fort Worth/Denton) and some of the east locations. Fwiw FWD thinks we get the bulk of our precip after midnight and throughout the day tomorrow. Getting some very light wintry mix now also EDIT: Now getting proper lught snow, already accumulating on elevated surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 hour ago, cheese007 said: Fwiw FWD thinks we get the bulk of our precip after midnight and throughout the day tomorrow. Getting some very light wintry mix now also EDIT: Now getting proper lught snow, already accumulating on elevated surfaces Agree. Monday is supposed to be light. 18z RDPS is showing even more FR for the metro now. I'm not familiar with this model but that's concerning if other 18z come in similarly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 24 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: Agree. Monday is supposed to be light. 18z RDPS is showing even more FR for the metro now. I'm not familiar with this model but that's concerning if other 18z come in similarly. Rdps has been my go to for many years for winter storms. Its the hi Res Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 18z NAM 3K 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, SWineman said: 18z NAM 3K On the flip side, 0z HRRR seems lowered the amount of ice in Dfw by a lot. At least for tomorrow! I find it hard to understand why models are so struggling with this at close range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, vwgrrc said: On the flip side, 0z HRRR seems lowered the amount of ice in Dfw by a lot. At least for tomorrow! I find it hard to understand why models are so struggling with this at close range. We are dealing with ripples in the jet coming through Mexico. We have no upper air data for the models to initialize on down there. I would still bet on Pacific moisture producing though there be winner and losers as always. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 hours ago, SWineman said: 18z NAM 3K 0z NAM 3K shows even more ice for Dallas Ct. wth...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 00z model runs were depressing all around. First of all, models are still completely clueless with respect to surface temps, by several degrees. All of DFW has fallen into the mid 20s as of 1am. But more concerning, they've all trended stronger with the 3rd & final wave Wednesday/Thursday while holding temps at/below freezing. It's plausible that could be the most significant round of icing for DFW. It would also mean FWD's current temp forecast is too high and the Winter Storm Warning would need to be extended again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 4 hours ago, Powerball said: 00z model runs were depressing all around. First of all, models are still completely clueless with respect to surface temps, by several degrees. All of DFW has fallen into the mid 20s as of 1am. But more concerning, they've all trended stronger with the 3rd & final wave Wednesday/Thursday while holding temps at/below freezing. It's plausible that could be the most significant round of icing for DFW. It would also mean FWD's current temp forecast is too high and the Winter Storm Warning would need to be extended again. Guess what got extended until 6:00 AM Thursday? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Upper 20s and thunder freezing rain in Lindale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 10 minutes ago, aggiegeog said: Upper 20s and thunder freezing rain in Lindale. Any live storm chasers that are covering the storm right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 I've got thunder in Saginaw, half sleet/half raindrop pouring from the sky. Edit: I'm concerned that the current mix might accrete faster than either of the p-types alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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