Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 Tuesday afternoon- warm sector doesn't quite get to MBY just N of Houston in Harris County (Zero SBCape), but S of I-10 and E of I-45 (not a big area, mostly just Galveston and Brazoria counties) does get into the warm sector, and while CAPE in the warm sector is only about 500 J/Kg ahead of the line, 700 (m/s)^2 and 80 knots shear produces an STP of 4. Despite IAH and DFW being cold sectored 3km and 12km NAM, sim radar shows impressive looking thunderstorms for DFW early afternoon and IAH late afternoon. Only take a small bump N of the surface low to put IAH on the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 On 1/22/2023 at 1:20 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Tuesday afternoon- warm sector doesn't quite get to MBY just N of Houston in Harris County (Zero SBCape), but S of I-10 and E of I-45 (not a big area, mostly just Galveston and Brazoria counties) does get into the warm sector, and while CAPE in the warm sector is only about 500 J/Kg ahead of the line, 700 (m/s)^2 and 80 knots shear produces an STP of 4. Despite IAH and DFW being cold sectored 3km and 12km NAM, sim radar shows impressive looking thunderstorms for DFW early afternoon and IAH late afternoon. Only take a small bump N of the surface low to put IAH on the warm front. Not much has changed, SPC has enhanced for tornado for S. Houston metro. Alvin, TX 18Z forecast sounding. Enhanced risk, from just S. of Houston, extends NE to Pensacola area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Watching Twitter for the 1 km nest- I wouldn't know where to find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Pretty unusual to have such strong deep layer and low level shear coincident with enlarged low level instability, even if deeper layer CAPE profiles appear to be modest at best. A few point forecast soundings showed 0-3km CAPE in excess of 200 J/kg… Looks like a narrow warm sector “wedge” will be conditionally favorable for supercells near and just SW of the Houston area. Storms along the cold front could initially start as semi discrete supercells. As SPC said, watch the triple point and along the warm front. Low level shear looks very impressive, but I do wonder if storm interactions will lead to a sloppy mess. Also, does anyone have a read on SSTs just offshore? The low level jet goes bonkers Tuesday night, via models, with the NAM popping a maximum of 90 knots at 850mb. Could see a nighttime severe surge for areas farther NE toward the central Gulf Coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 NAMs coming closer, but still only the HRRR that is getting actual downtown Houston into the warm sector. 13Z HRRR actually has the warm sector a smidge farther S than earlier runs. I-10 and S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Some north of I-20 will see heavy snow today. Most likely near Red River East West of I35. Flurries down to I-20 east of I35, West of I35 snow could fall south of I35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 WWUS40 KWNS 241647 WWP7 TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0027 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1045 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2023 WT 0027 PROBABILITY TABLE: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60% PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /EF2-EF5/ TORNADOES : 40% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 40% PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 20% PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 40% PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20% PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 70% && ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 1.5 MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60 MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500 MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 23040 PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO && FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH AND WATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU7. $$ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Warm front got from VIC to SGR in two hours, I think the tornado warnings so far around Houston have been in cells too far into the cold sector to produce, but warm front is now near I-10 in Harris County, or real tornadoes, not just warned tornadoes, seem possible. The cell near Tomball was 20 miles into the cold sector, but the tornadic signal on TIAH radar was real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Warm front got from VIC to SGR in two hours, I think the tornado warnings so far around Houston have been in cells too far into the cold sector to produce, but warm front is now near I-10 in Harris County, or real tornadoes, not just warned tornadoes, seem possible. The cell near Tomball was 20 miles into the cold sector, but the tornadic signal on TIAH radar was real. There's a severe-warned storm along the US 59 corridor NE of Victoria and SW of Houston (near Edna) that looks ready to take advantage of the warm sector. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 Don't know where to post this, but there's a tornado emergency east of Houston. Massive debris ball with it as it passed on the eastern side of Deer Park. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I am at Alliance airport in NW Ft Worth and it is snowing hard. 35 degrees though so not accumulating much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, radarman said: I am at Alliance airport in NW Ft Worth and it is snowing hard. 35 degrees though so not accumulating much. Still 40 and raining out at DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Snowing in Saginaw now. Pretty even if its falling after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Snow starting to mix in with rain at DFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Feb 1st starting to look a bit interesting for NTX again. GFS is joining CMC today but still look a bit too warm. Plenty of time left for changes of course! Edit 0z 1/27 - Canadian is really ramping up for next week and now shows NTX basically under ice for two straight days. The 2m temps for most of that period has a significant divergence (15-20F) between CMC and GFS, which makes all the difference in this case. I don't recall I ever seen that divergence at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 12 km NAM says no classes at UT on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 DFW and points west looking like a skating rink most of this week. NE TX is more borderline given the Ouachita Mountain shadow but I think they will also join the party by Monday night and especially late Tuesday into Wednesday. Some snow possible Thu if surface stays in mid 30s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Here on the NW side of the metroplex the temperature has already fallen to 34. Cold has come in faster than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 National Weather Service office in Fort Worth is issuing Winter Storm Watch this afternon for pretty much all of North Texas, including the DFW Metroplex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Austin has ice on the ground Tuesday into Wednesday on all the high res except the FV3, and College Station, while no ice verbatim, gets w/i a couple of degrees of freezing on NAM. DFW is certainly cold enough, the issue would seem to be how much precip. NAMs setting up the icing boundary near I-35 in C. Texas, No ice in Houston, but 2 to 3 inches more rain, mainly N of I-10, near where DW Hooks (very near TIAH doppler) has had just over 3 inches the last six hours. Interesting week ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 The fact models usually struggle with these shallow cold air masses and they're trending with icing now up to the edge of the Escarpment in Bexar County is getting concerning. Austin and nearby could be in some big trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Was shocked to see the winter storm watch. Guess I'll be needing to change up some plans this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 This is starting to spark memories of 12/2013. Not good at all. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 I'm not sure I understand EWX's justifications for reluctantly including Travis County in the WS Watch, that the higher elevations in the W. part of the county might be cold enough for freezing rain. The new AUS airport at Bergstrom gets colder than the old Mueller site does, because cold air drains to the lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 2 hours ago, aggiegeog said: This is starting to spark memories of 12/2013. Not good at all. definitely jugged my memory on that one. but i think the forecasted ice accu was a lot higher back then. this one shouldn't be too bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 hours ago, vwgrrc said: definitely jugged my memory on that one. but i think the forecasted ice accu was a lot higher back then. this one shouldn't be too bad! Qpf of 1 to 2 inches is plenty to cause huge ice problems with temps in upper 20s as it appears DFW will see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I'm not sure I understand EWX's justifications for reluctantly including Travis County in the WS Watch, that the higher elevations in the W. part of the county might be cold enough for freezing rain. The new AUS airport at Bergstrom gets colder than the old Mueller site does, because cold air drains to the lower elevations. The ASOS moved a few years ago at a lower part of the AUS property and the office in New Braunfels has mentioned that with all the record lows seen lately at Bergstrom versus Mabry. Part of it is also the county is a singular zone versus say some in Florida put as "inland" versus "coastal." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 0z HRRR almost 2x the FR amount for DFW. This one can be a storm goes down the history. On the bright side, 0z NAM is not joining that bandwagon. It's much drier than HRRR for the metro. But I'm not sure how's HRRR compared to NAM in set up like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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