Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 SPC this morning promoted Houston from Marginal to Slight. 2% tornado, just missing the 5%, 15% wind. 45 minute conference, I can only check so many models, especially if I was working the first 25 minutes. Coastal front not far, HOU and IAH DPs mid 60s, low 70s just S of here, and morning coastal convection is moving out. No insolation to speak of, but 70s DP last weekend of November isn't shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 28, 2022 Share Posted October 28, 2022 Back to marginal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Gotta "love" Joe Q. Public... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted November 4, 2022 Share Posted November 4, 2022 While a tropical airmass with convection is ongoing across DFW into Eastern Texas, it's currentlt 34*F and snowing in Amarillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 We turn wet and cold for the second half of this month. Plenty of highs in 40s and 50s with a chance or two for frozen precip likely mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 85F in Houston area, and warmer inland. That'll make the weekend cold snap feel even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 Getting a light sleet shower by the airport. Peaceful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 I live in South Central Texas, in Buda. I know this area is a hell of a lot drier than where I moved here from, N Virginia. Buda is lucky as heck to eke out 30 inches of rain in 365 days' time. But this so-called upper level low is a heartbreaker. We have eked out a ten thousandth of an inch from it so far. We had a 90 percent chance of rain last night. No rain. We had a 90 percent chance of rain today. Okay, I got three hundred light drops of rain, tho they were so damn small, I had to use a scanning electron microscope to see them. I have a 90 percent chance of rain tonight. I dont think so. We need rain bad in south central Texas. Everyone from all over is moving to south central Texas and we are absolutely sucking the Ogallala Aquifer dry. We need good rains BAD, but we are S.O.L., shoot out of luck. We are in a drought and we arent getting out of it for years to come. Every time we have a categorical chance of rain - I refuse to believe in it. We do better when we have a 10 percent chance of rain. Tomorrow, clearing skies, wall to wall Texas sunshine and back to our regularly scheduled drought. It's a MIRACLE! We got 2 inches of rain late last night after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 25, 2022 Share Posted November 25, 2022 On 10/28/2022 at 9:58 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: SPC this morning promoted Houston from Marginal to Slight. 2% tornado, just missing the 5%, 15% wind. 45 minute conference, I can only check so many models, especially if I was working the first 25 minutes. Coastal front not far, HOU and IAH DPs mid 60s, low 70s just S of here, and morning coastal convection is moving out. No insolation to speak of, but 70s DP last weekend of November isn't shabby. Love them dewpoints! 87/71 is my favorite weather down here in Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Everything is on the table for a memorable second half of December with many days of subfreezing highs and several snow chances. Upper level forecasts look insane while models have yet to resolve surface weather. One of the best analogs for this pattern is 2/21 as well as 12/83, for sure two of the most severe Arctic outbreaks but it's on the table. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted December 11, 2022 Share Posted December 11, 2022 Indeed for those wanting a White Christmas, chances are higher than normal this year for much of the area for sure. While 200+ hours is still fantasy land forecasting, the GFS has been consistently showing something happening that week. See the current 06z run valid for Christmas Eve. One thing that is for sure is the cold air WILL be in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 13 hours ago, stormdragonwx said: Indeed for those wanting a White Christmas, chances are higher than normal this year for much of the area for sure. While 200+ hours is still fantasy land forecasting, the GFS has been consistently showing something happening that week. See the current 06z run valid for Christmas Eve. One thing that is for sure is the cold air WILL be in place. Agreed, and considering models are always too far north with Arctic boundaries at low latitudes then south trends can be expected in the storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 On 12/11/2022 at 6:18 AM, aggiegeog said: Everything is on the table for a memorable second half of December with many days of subfreezing highs and several snow chances. Upper level forecasts look insane while models have yet to resolve surface weather. One of the best analogs for this pattern is 2/21 as well as 12/83, for sure two of the most severe Arctic outbreaks but it's on the table. Very much agree with you on this. Seems all the teleconnections are pointing to an Arctic outbreak. How severe will it be and will it affect Texas directly like in the two years you mentioned are the questions? With a higher than usual chance of snow or ice in our around Christmas this year, we may be looking at temps as cold as 10 or colder before all said and done at DFW. I don't think we will get as cold as Febrary 2021, nor do I think this will be as protracted as December 1983 though, at least not yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, DFWWeather said: Very much agree with you on this. Seems all the teleconnections are pointing to an Arctic outbreak. How severe will it be and will it affect Texas directly like in the two years you mentioned are the questions? With a higher than usual chance of snow or ice in our around Christmas this year, we may be looking at temps as cold as 10 or colder before all said and done at DFW. I don't think we will get as cold as Febrary 2021, nor do I think this will be as protracted as December 1983 though, at least not yet. I lean more towards 83, this will last longer than 21 just based on time of year. Late December has lowest sun angle of year. Below 0 around here happens so rarely so I do doubt we reach those levels but with good snow cover I can def see multiple nights below 10 with maybe isolated sub 0. That Arctic blocking is insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 2 hours ago, aggiegeog said: I lean more towards 83, this will last longer than 21 just based on time of year. Late December has lowest sun angle of year. Below 0 around here happens so rarely so I do doubt we reach those levels but with good snow cover I can def see multiple nights below 10 with maybe isolated sub 0. That Arctic blocking is insane. Day 10 Euro shows a 1070mb high in Alberta...that's crazy. Of course, it's only one run of an op model 10 days out. The Lower 48 record is 1064mb in Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Out in fantasy time, but multiple runs, ~Christmas below freezing 1 to 3 straight days in DFW. Today's has a fantasy range ice storm for Christmas Eve in Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 0z op models seem to be all over the place this morning with cold and magnitude next week. However, nearly all the ensembles from the CMC, ECMWF, and GFS are showing multi-day subfreezing temps at DFW with averages now down in the teens for lows. Several members show us getting to the single digits. If the GEFS (ensemble) 500 mb pattern is correct (below) Texas will take a direct hit. This will put challenges to the power grid. I think freezes all the way into LRGV look likely with this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 What is the lower 48 pressure record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: What is the lower 48 pressure record? 1064mb in Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983. Would be a tad windy on that panel, with a 73mb pressure gradient between IN and WY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted December 14, 2022 Share Posted December 14, 2022 I'm quitting my job in a week (I asked for and was given a release from my contract) or I am poor and don't have PPV models. Houston newspaper science writer Matt Lanza implied in a Tweet that the Euro control run had a significant snowstorm from Houston 12/25 and 12/26. If anyone has clown maps of the Euro ensemble control... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Today's operational runs of the GFS, ECMWF, CMC really backed off on the cold into Texas next week (not hadling the low level cold air into the Southern Plains, nor accounting for cold air damming). Actually, doing some crazy stuff. However, the ensembles still have a severe cold snap into Texas. The 18z op GFS starting to catch back on to the Texas intrusion. Interesting to note, a couple of ensembles members of the ECMWF and GEFS have DFW at 3 below zero for a low on Christmas. Don't think it will be that cold, but singles digits to I20 even in DFW, teens below zero in the panhandle and freezes to LRGV all very possible with this. Don't think it lasts longer than 3 to 5 days max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 15, 2022 Share Posted December 15, 2022 Models all still look too fast in upper levels for a lot of fun for now but I would keep eyes on Friday night for a small event, Monday could be something if temps trend down a few degrees and I still would watch the big late week front to see if it finds moisture. The big front will very likely come in faster and stronger than modeled. Post frontal temps Thu could be in the 20s with wind chill around 10. Around here this morning it is in the upper to 20s to mid 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 0Z GFS showed almost a tenth of liquid falling as snow with surface temps just above freezing Christmas morning in Houston. 6Z even happier. Euro and GFS backing off on the cold, mid 20s for Houston is cold but not freakishly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 24 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 0Z GFS showed almost a tenth of liquid falling as snow with surface temps just above freezing Christmas morning in Houston. 6Z even happier. Euro and GFS backing off on the cold, mid 20s for Houston is cold but not freakishly so. The operational models are not doing very well on this cold air outbreak. They are not catching the cold air damming common with these into Texas. Their ensembles however are. The chances of any snow with this look very low. This not a setup for a significant snow event in Texas, especially around DFW. I still say upper single digits to lower teens to the I-20 corridor. Upper teens possible to around 20 in Houston, and 20s into LRGV with this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Might have to look into an impromptu trip to South Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Sleet mixing with rain this afternoon across East Texas. Signal for Arctic air next week is very strong and there is a growing signal for a couple shots at snow late next week through early the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted December 16, 2022 Share Posted December 16, 2022 Ops have dropped the snow, but over a tenth liquid equivalent in the means and a few decent ensemble members. 18 is my favorite and I am all in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 The op models finally catching on to the severeity of this cold air outbreak this morning. I expect them to continue trending colder. This will not be a repeat of February 2021, nor will it be a repeat of December 1983 or December 1989. We will not be that cold, nor will the longevity of this cold spell approach those levels. I expect temps below freezing for 2 to 3 days now max at DFW. At the coldest point (Christmas Eve or Christmas Day) temps should be 8°F to 11°F around DFW. Anytime temps get to 10°F or lower in this region is "severe cold" and Hard Freeze Warning will likely be needed. Arctic front should arrive on Thursday, if not sooner with crashing temps behind it. Likely all of North Texas will be in the teens on Friday morning. The Canadian ensembles have the best handle on temps with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 0Z GFS just hinted some snow late Thursday to Friday for DFW. I mean we're about 5 days out. Still time for some interesting twists. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted December 18, 2022 Share Posted December 18, 2022 Euro has Houston in the upper teens Friday morning with 20 knot winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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