Powerball Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, SWineman said: I've got thunder in Saginaw, half sleet/half raindrop pouring from the sky. Edit: I'm concerned that the current mix might accrete faster than either of the p-types alone. Getting thunder here now as well. Radar suggests DFW will likely be the bullsye for ice accretion & sleet accumulation with this round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 8 minutes ago, SWineman said: I've got thunder in Saginaw, half sleet/half raindrop pouring from the sky. Edit: I'm concerned that the current mix might accrete faster than either of the p-types alone. Dallas looks to be getting hammered right now also… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Just got some thundersleet! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 29 minutes ago, SWineman said: I've got thunder in Saginaw, half sleet/half raindrop pouring from the sky. Edit: I'm concerned that the current mix might accrete faster than either of the p-types alone. really started to get concerned for a power outage at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 11 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: really started to get concerned for a power outage at this rate. I'm concerned for the magnolia tree in my front yard, it is starting to droop. I hope that the sleet will save the power infrastructure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 31 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: really started to get concerned for a power outage at this rate. The saving grace so far is that we've primarily been getting sleet, which doesn't really accrete on power lines & branches like freezing rain does. That could change with tomorrow's round though... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 54 minutes ago, olafminesaw said: Holy cow. can you elaborate pls? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 7 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: can you elaborate pls? Basically, it's a textbook thundersleet sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 2 hours ago, weatherlover said: Any live storm chasers that are covering the storm right now? I know Reed is in DFW, I'm sure there are others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Fort Worth had 0.30" reported freezing rain. Other note: thunder recently reported at the Dallas area and also Poteau, OK (temps below freezing on both) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 6 minutes ago, Chinook said: Fort Worth had 0.30" reported freezing rain. Other note: thunder recently reported at the Dallas area and also Poteau, OK (temps below freezing on both) Does this mean that DFW is transitioning from sleet to ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Water vapor imagery shows the upper low sitting over SoCal pumping in a constant stream of moisture directly out of the EPAC ITCZ. We will stay wet with little to no break until the upper low ejects over us later this week. The surface cold also will not break until then so expect current temps to persist until Thu. The surface cold will temporarily be replaced with cold from above Thu which cold bring some snow. Warm up and dry out starts Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 hour ago, weatherextreme said: Reed Timmer in S Dallas County has gone to sleet from freezing rain. I am curious how much ice actually sticks on trees and powerlines. NW Suburban Austin seeing power outages reported on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 The thundersleet was quite something. Got the occasional rumble of thunder for about an hour. Even got to see one of the lightning flashes! Who knows when I'll see that again! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWineman Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Ground white now from sleet shower, that should make freezing rain surface accretion rates increase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 The Ice Storm Warning is truly a rare issuance in this region. This generally is not issued unless ice accretion totals are expected to be 1/2 inch or greater, which is severe icing. If forecast holds this, combined with this 1/2 inch sleet already on ground, is turning out to be the worst ice storm this century for the western part of the Metroplex. I doubt very seriously temperatures will move far enough above freezing to improve road conditions, especially in this area, until late Thursday or possibly into early Friday. This surpases the December 2013 and February 2003 events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 Pete Delkus 36m · Today's primary precipitation type was sleet. Tomorrow, it's expected to be freezing rain. That's the most problematic type. Those under an ice storm warning will see the biggest impacts with possible power outages. #wfaaweather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 51 minutes ago, DFWWeather said: The Ice Storm Warning is truly a rare issuance in this region. This generally is not issued unless ice accretion totals are expected to be 1/2 inch or greater, which is severe icing. If forecast holds this, combined with this 1/2 inch sleet already on ground, is turning out to be the worst ice storm this century for the western part of the Metroplex. I doubt very seriously temperatures will move far enough above freezing to improve road conditions, especially in this area, until late Thursday or possibly into early Friday. This surpases the December 2013 and February 2003 events. I'm actually a bit shocked they issued the warning at this point given the latest HRRR isn't that aggressive for tomorrow and the amount is *only* up to 0.25. IMO December 2013 was much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 31, 2023 Share Posted January 31, 2023 15 minutes ago, vwgrrc said: I'm actually a bit shocked they issued the warning at this point given the latest HRRR isn't that aggressive for tomorrow and the amount is *only* up to 0.25. IMO December 2013 was much worse. I'm not sure the HRRR has been the model of choice through this event. I believe the NAM and Canadian (both its hi-res, operational Synoptic, and ensembles) have been outperforming nearly all of them. The concern here is the depth of the warm air aloft will deepen as the warm air advection process ramps up as the upper low approaches. This will almost gurantee the next round precip will be much less sleet and more freezing rain. 1/2 inch of freezing rain is much worse than sleet. Combine that on top of the sleet and it will be total ice skating rink with wet water on top of ice before it freezes. What a mess! At least with the cobblestone ice, you did have "some" traction. So, I am not surprised the warning was upgraded at all. The December 2013 was worse farther off to the northwest of the Metroplex due to its longevity in that region (what 5-6 days vs the 2 1/2 in the Metro?) and it was all sleet, with very little freezing rain. I probably should have worded it may potentially surpass the those two events if the forecast holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Finally got power back on in Lindale. Today we got maybe 0.2" of ice and some sleet mixed in. Temps rose to around 32 or a tad above but are back in upper 20s again now. Oncor reporting major damage in this area. Much more damage expected tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 2 hours ago, vwgrrc said: I'm actually a bit shocked they issued the warning at this point given the latest HRRR isn't that aggressive for tomorrow and the amount is *only* up to 0.25. IMO December 2013 was much worse. What models have been struggling with (obviously besides surface temps) is the convective nature of the precipitation. With these waves being so subtle, large scale forcing has been pretty weak. That said, there's just enough instability/moisture/covergence in the lower levels (below 700mb) in combination with the weak lift to generate intense but intermittent areas of precipitation. Yes, worst case, such a setup can be catastrophic for narrow corridors that end up under the most persistent/stationary banding. However, it can also be a real feast or famine as far as how widespread the impacts and amounts are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Travel Impact Timeline updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Starting to feel there's a chance the outcome could be even worst than forecasted today. Most of the short range models tonight shows little to nothing for the state as of midnight. But in reality, West TX is already seeing FR or sleet at this point. Probably gonna be a real mess in DFW tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 Candian is only model that has tps in NE TX correct right now. 27 in Lindale, around 1" QPF expected today. Most models want to quickly get us above freezing which I am seriously questioning. Maybe we touch 33 this afternoon. I think an additional 0.5" of ice is possible here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now