New England snowstorm memories.

[OceanStWx]

2 minutes ago, radarman said:

I can never pass up a chance to wax about 3/01... Jay Peak summit looked like something from way out west.  Sorry for the horrific pic quality.

Looks like these were taken in the 60s or 70s. A little sepia quality to them. 

[ORH_wxman]

Radarman sold his camera to ginxy a few years later.

[radarman]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Looks like these were taken in the 60s or 70s. A little sepia quality to them. 

lol. Those are digital pics of faded prints from a CVS disposable wind up cam.  If they weren't so epic they'd be tossed a long time ago.  Hopefully we can make them obsolete some day soon.

[radarman]

I have some equally blown out (sweet) pics of 12/31/00 but every time that storm is mentioned here someone drowns a kitten in eastern MA.  At any rate, we've seen things on that order here plenty of times recently.  March and April 01 stand alone however.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, radarman said:

I have some equally blown out (sweet) pics of 12/31/00 but every time that storm is mentioned here someone drowns a kitten in eastern MA.  At any rate, we've seen things on that order here plenty of times recently.  March and April 01 stand alone however.

12/30/00 kind of sucked in ORH too...not because we changed to rain, but because we got blitzed for several hours and then a horrific dryslot that went all the way into S VT, which effectively ended the storm. It never really gave much as it collapsed back east, maybe another inch of currier and ives snow. The forecast for for widespread 10-16" or so...but most were in the 6-10 range...with a few lucky 12" lollis. I thought 10" was unlucky at first but then found out I was actually fortunate to get that much. The first 4-5 hours were pretty fun though...very heavy snow.

 

I'm sure it was a great storm for the greens.

[radarman]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

12/30/00 kind of sucked in ORH too...not because we changed to rain, but because we got blitzed for several hours and then a horrific dryslot that went all the way into S VT, which effectively ended the storm. It never really gave much as it collapsed back east, maybe another inch of currier and ives snow. The forecast for for widespread 10-16" or so...but most were in the 6-10 range...with a few lucky 12" lollis. I thought 10" was unlucky at first but then found out I was actually fortunate to get that much. The first 4-5 hours were pretty fun though...very heavy snow.

I'm sure it was a great storm for the greens.

18"+ type stuff.  Hardly unprecedented, but certainly not a bad way to close out a millennium.

[ORH_wxman]

2 more from March 2001...model images....first one is the AVN model and the 2nd one is the ETA model from a Rutgers presentation I believe (hence the focus on NJ)...you can see by the 12z run Saturday morning, the ETA was already crushing SNE...though it was still overdone for the mid-atlantic, but the trend was in full effect by this point (the ETA-X was actually more aggressive in the next panel or two).....you can see how ridiculously far south of AVN is....these are not the same model run...AVN is 12 hours earlier in the cycle, but it's still way south in classic KU position for the M.A.:

 

 

[backedgeapproaching]

18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2 more from March 2001...model images....first one is the AVN model and the 2nd one is the ETA model from a Rutgers presentation I believe (hence the focus on NJ)...you can see by the 12z run Saturday morning, the ETA was already crushing SNE...though it was still overdone for the mid-atlantic, but the trend was in full effect by this point (the ETA-X was actually more aggressive in the next panel or two).....you can see how ridiculously far south of AVN is....these are not the same model run...AVN is 12 hours earlier in the cycle, but it's still way south in classic KU position for the M.A.:

 

 

You kind of recapped it yesterday, but here is a more detailed account you had posted back in 2011 about the March 01 timetable and recap.  Will, please start eating some brain boosting foods to improve your memory..lol.

 

Posted January 16, 2011 · Report post

Here is my detailed recount of the March 4-6, 2001debacle.

There's a lot of "stories" behind it. First off, almost all guidance was going for a monster Mid-Atlantic HECS about 96-108 hours out. Back then the time range beyond 96h meant very little...but models actually did have it further out than that. Only a few model went further. The UKMET, ECMWF and the MRF (the extension of the AVN which is now the GFS all in one package) all called for it. By the time we got to 84 hours out, all models showed it still...basically 2-4 feet for DC-NYC with Boston getting fringed....except the old ETA-x....the old ETA went to 60 hours, but the "ETA-x" was the ETA to 84h which eventually became the NAM (run under the ETA) to 84 hours but is now run under the WRF and not the ETA anymore...ETA has been retired from operational use, only used in the SREF now. That run of the ETA-x had the storm much further north and crushing New England while limiting the snow in the Mid-Atlantic. I believe this was Friday at 12z. Nobody took it seriously as it was the ETA extended beyond its already 60h limit.

The next run at 00z Friday night, the ETA-x showed it again, but the other models held serve....the ECMWF didn't run at 00z back then...only at 12z, so its solution was non-existent. It was the best model back then too like recent years. We were now at 72h out or closer. The 12z runs came out on Saturday morning and they shifted north, limiting the snow for DC (probably from 2-3 feet to about 1-2 feet), but from Wilmington DE northward it was still monstrous except the UKMET shifted slightly north of that, to Philly and northward.

A little side note. The AVN had performed absolutely brilliantly in the other big east coast storm on December 30, 2000 and also on the December 3, 2000 North Carolina/Virginia bust. The ETA hadbeen way too bullish and far west in both events while the AVN schooled it. So a lot of attention and credence was being given the AVN. That was a big factor in the forecast IMHO.

After those Saturday morning runs at 12z (while the ETA showed a huge hit north again at 48-60h now in the operational run)...the forecast was still for a monster M.A. hit. The 12z ECMWF wouldn't come out until around 8pm that evening. It used to come around at that time back then. As 8pm rolled around, the ECMWF all of the sudden jumped way north and agreed with the ETA solution. But most forecasters disregarded it as it had been pretty steadfast before (maybe a burp run?) and the AVN was holding really steady and it had done so well on East Coast storms that winter. By Saturday night, the GGEM started to go north, the AVN held serve once again (having been the model of choice all winter), the ETA went north again taking Philly and nearly NYC out of the huge snow and hammering New England/Boston with a storm like Feb 1978. UKMET I don't recall what happened, but I know the forecast stuck close to the AVN.

Again there was no 00z ECMWF run back then. Only 12z.

By 12z Sunday morning just 24h before the event, the AVN once again gave a monster hit to the mid-atlantic except it shifted a bit north...it was mostly Philly northward. The ETA gave New England a huge HECS again, the GGEM finally went well north...and so did the UKMET. The ECMWF would have to wait until 8pm as usual. Most forecaster were trusting the AVN because it had served them well that winter after the obscene ETA busts and the AVN had nailed two major east coast storms.

When 8pm came in, the writing was on the wall if there was any doubt left. It was way north and took Philly and possibly even NYC out fo the big snows, though NYC was still on the line.

The forecasts started being revived when the 00z AVN came in late that Sunday night and it finally jumped north, but still not far enough....it still gave big snows to Philly (but not historic totals) and historic totals to NYC. I think this is when most operational forecasters knew something was terribly wrong. You have to remember it was so hard to trust any model that winter and the AVN was the best until that point.

That was the first storm that I recall Dave Tolleris (whether you like him or not) came up with the old "EE rule"...when the ETA and ECMWF (both start with "E") agree, you don't go against them. I was lurking on ne.weather back then. When the EC came north to agree with the ETA back on Saturday, he said the M.A. was cooked and got a lot of crap for it on the boards as you can imagine.

That's just my personal recollection of all of that storm. I don't claim for all of it to be 100% accurate, but I usually remember things very vividly, so I think at least most of it is right. There was a lot of controversy and talk amongst the weather people both on ne.weather and the NWS back then. It ended up being a huge interior New England and NY State HECS. Even the models at the last second kind of busted at Boston...only getting 10" while they were forecasted for double that...but the suburbs got all the snow.

Very incredible storm both from a forecasting standpoint and also as a student observer back then when I first learning a lot of the intricacies of forecasting and models.

 

[ORH_wxman]

I def wouldn't forecast a monster storm based on that ETA run down in the M.A....maybe for like NNJ still, but that is getting pretty ugly for the rest of the M.A.....relying on just the deformation which it wasn't uncommon for the ETA to be overdone on (the QPF bias back then was even more than now on the ETA...aka NAM). You can actually see how much central and S NJ is dryslotted too.

But that run def gave a little more snow to the M.A. than I recalled in the 2011 synopsis...maybe I need to do some more mind exercises. lol.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I started as some rain and sleet, but quickly flipped and got near 20".

[Ginx snewx]

Feb 01 and March 01 were unreal in NNE.  In Newry Maine in March 01 at the base of SR we recorded an amazing 11 per hour burst. Two 3 foot plus storms I will never forget

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Feb 01 and March 01 were unreal in NNE.  In Newry Maine in March 01 at the base of SR we recorded an amazing 11 per hour burst. Two 3 foot plus storms I will never forget

Was that the Mar 22-23, 2001 storm? That was a paste bomb (though prob turned into a denser powder later on) up in Maine...I think Eustis had like 34 inches from it.

[CoastalWx]

I spent a bit of time in Ray's beast of a man shed that winter. March 01 was pretty good though even here. But definitely not nearly as kind of a winter here compared to 50 miles NW.

[SouthCoastMA]

2010/2011 was prob my most frustrating Winter, just based on how close the rain/snow line was to mby. 

I vaguely remember 3/2001 - but I do recall solid OES during the 2nd half of the storm. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I spent a bit of time in Ray's beast of a man shed that winter. March 01 was pretty good though even here. But definitely not nearly as kind of a winter here compared to 50 miles NW.

Feb 5, 2001 was def the most painful event for the coast that winter...I think it's a lot worse than Dec 30, 2000 since even over the interior in 12/30/00, we got dryslotted and it was not a monster. But Feb 5 was 18-30 inches over the interior. Coast got porked. Though for some, the sting of getting basically zero in Dec 2000 might be worse. Feb 5 at least did give 5-8" around BOS at the end.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 5, 2001 was def the most painful event for the coast that winter...I think it's a lot worse than Dec 30, 2000 since even over the interior in 12/30/00, we got dryslotted and it was not a monster. But Feb 5 was 18-30 inches over the interior. Coast got porked. Though for some, the sting of getting basically zero in Dec 2000 might be worse. Feb 5 at least did give 5-8" around BOS at the end.

That whole winter was a wet dream or white dream for the interior.  Even in ALB it was one of my first few winters really watching the models and I distinctly remember that 12/31 event become a much bigger event as it came closer (we had like 12-14" I think) and then remember the models jacking up the Feb  01 event as we got closer with further NW tracks.  Then all events in March seemed to trend snowier, too, at least in the local high country.

I do sort of miss the days of crazy model swings...oh wait...

[SJonesWX]

Our new Dover, NH posters would have loved March 5-6 2001. not sure how much the Dover area got, but not too far west/southwest of them got crushed. the route 101 corridor and south, I think some parts had up to 30". i remember being disappointed that i only got around 2', but I am not exactly sure what i ended up with. i was a younger weenie with no record keeping abilities. that was in the CON area.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

Our new Dover, NH posters would have loved March 5-6 2001. not sure how much the Dover area got, but not too far west/southwest of them got crushed. the route 101 corridor and south, I think some parts had up to 30". i remember being disappointed that i only got around 2', but I am not exactly sure what i ended up with. i was a younger weenie with no record keeping abilities. that was in the CON area.

The Dover area was actually pretty close to ground zero in the big Mar 2001 storm...they had close to 40 inches. I also remember being "disappointed" in ORH with "only" about 24" in that storm. I was thinking 30" minimum.

[LoveSN+]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The Dover area was actually pretty close to ground zero in the big Mar 2001 storm...they had close to 40 inches. I also remember being "disappointed" in ORH with "only" about 24" in that storm. I was thinking 30" minimum.

I simply cannot fathom being disappointed by 2 ft of snow. 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, LoveSN+ said:

I simply cannot fathom being disappointed by 2 ft of snow. 

Oh yeah, it's totally greedy....but if you were here to see the model forecasts and the hype, you would have been certain that 30" was the floor...esp in a place like ORH that benefits from the easterly flow. OBviously I'd know better now having been watching this stuff an additional 15 years, but the model outputs were that impressive.

[SJonesWX]

2 minutes ago, LoveSN+ said:

I simply cannot fathom being disappointed by 2 ft of snow. 

well to be fair, the forecasts leading up to the event were in feet, not inches. the TV mets were going bananas.

[LoveSN+]

I hope I'm spoiled up here in the next couple winters. Everyone gets hyped in the midwest if 8 inches is on the table. I can't imagine something near 20 inches. The largest storm I ever experienced in Illinois was about 14 inches. Believe it broke the record in Springfield, IL for most snow in 24 hours with like 17 inches or something. However, the deepest snowpack I've ever experienced was in Idaho this winter. Was doing some research during a project up there in the mountains and the snow depth was at least 3-4 ft everywhere. I was absolutely in awe.

 

Edit: Sidenote, I asked some locals up there how late in the year they have seen snow and they told me they got measureable snow on July 4th before. Truly incredible. To be fair though, last year was a year of epic proportions for almost all of the inter-mountain west and west coast mountains.

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, SJonesWX said:

well to be fair, the forecasts leading up to the event were in feet, not inches. the TV mets were going bananas.

I'll have to find it but I remember seeing a TV forecast for Vermont out of a BTV news station that just had "2-4 feet" written covering the entire state.

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Was that the Mar 22-23, 2001 storm? That was a paste bomb (though prob turned into a denser powder later on) up in Maine...I think Eustis had like 34 inches from it.

Yes sir, total paste job, power out everywhere. We scrambled to get home with little gas. We took 16 home and the sites near Mt Washington with 4 to 5 feet of paste on White Birches and Pines was something I will never forget.  We ran smack into this too.

 

480)5:15 AM-W/F-Greens Grant,NH--Rt.16 at "Great Glen Trails Outdoor Center"-The Main Lodge at the Nordic Ski Area at the Base of the Mt.Washington Auto Road fully involved

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 5, 2001 was def the most painful event for the coast that winter...I think it's a lot worse than Dec 30, 2000 since even over the interior in 12/30/00, we got dryslotted and it was not a monster. But Feb 5 was 18-30 inches over the interior. Coast got porked. Though for some, the sting of getting basically zero in Dec 2000 might be worse. Feb 5 at least did give 5-8" around BOS at the end.

I had 9"-10", then a slot in 2-5-01

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

The Dover area was actually pretty close to ground zero in the big Mar 2001 storm...they had close to 40 inches. I also remember being "disappointed" in ORH with "only" about 24" in that storm. I was thinking 30" minimum.

Yea...interior se NH jackpot...I felt screwed with 20" just to the south ol

[radarman]

IIRC the northern stream was a little bit late arriving on 3/5/01 which kept the totals on the western side on the lower end of the range.   Even today that would be relatively hard to model

[tamarack]

On ‎10‎/‎18‎/‎2017 at 5:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Was that the Mar 22-23, 2001 storm? That was a paste bomb (though prob turned into a denser powder later on) up in Maine...I think Eustis had like 34 inches from it.

34.5" IIRC.  We were in SC during that storm, which was heavy enough to wreck the struts supporting the Tonneau cover on my pickup sitting in our driveway.  Friends said it was barely accumulating under 500' until late aft, when the rate picked up.  Only 15" for Farmington, but they got another 18" on 3/30-31 to put the depth at 48", tallest they've measured so late in the season - also snowiest March on record with 58.3".  We had a winter harvest on the Redington Public Lot, maybe 5 miles SSW from the 'Loaf.  The final load of timber squeezed thru the narrow stretch where the AT was crossed just as the intensity really cranked.  That whole job was at elev. 2300-2800, so I would not be surprised at 40"+ from that storm (with no one there to measure.)

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, tamarack said:

34.5" IIRC.  We were in SC during that storm, which was heavy enough to wreck the struts supporting the Tonneau cover on my pickup sitting in our driveway.  Friends said it was barely accumulating under 500' until late aft, when the rate picked up.  Only 15" for Farmington, but they got another 18" on 3/30-31 to put the depth at 48", tallest they've measured so late in the season - also snowiest March on record with 58.3".  We had a winter harvest on the Redington Public Lot, maybe 5 miles SSW from the 'Loaf.  The final load of timber squeezed thru the narrow stretch where the AT was crossed just as the intensity really cranked.  That whole job was at elev. 2300-2800, so I would not be surprised at 40"+ from that storm (with no one there to measure.)

40 ish at the Mountain. Rt2 West Bethel to Rt 16 Jackson was 4 to5 feet at high elevation, pure white, lots of tree damage , powerloss and that huge fire at the base of Mt Washington. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

On 10/18/2017 at 5:48 PM, LoveSN+ said:

I simply cannot fathom being disappointed by 2 ft of snow. 

24” is a BECS for most but only a MECS for some. ha.