ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I dunno why I said Norwood...I meant Needham, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Ironically, I actually got the most sh*t from the Union, CT guy in the Feb 23-24, 2010 even though I forecasted less down there. I was 5-9" there but the TV people were so low in N CT...they were mostly 1-3" and maybe some 2-4" forecasts. Union got 6.5" out of that so the 5-9 worked out. But they were actually worried about not plowing in that region. I got the most kudos though from the northern towns after the event where 17" fell when 3-6" was predicted by TV. It was a nice feeling after I got effing railed during the Feb 10, 2010 event. Worst forecast I've ever seen from both models and actual forecast outlets including me for a 6-12 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Ironically, I actually got the most sh*t from the Union, CT guy in the Feb 23-24, 2010 even though I forecasted less down there. I was 5-9" there but the TV people were so low in N CT...they were mostly 1-3" and maybe some 2-4" forecasts. Union got 6.5" out of that so the 5-9 worked out. But they were actually worried about not plowing in that region. I got the most kudos though from the northern towns after the event where 17" fell when 3-6" was predicted by TV. It was a nice feeling after I got effing railed during the Feb 10, 2010 event. Worst forecast I've ever seen from both models and actual forecast outlets including me for a 6-12 hour forecast. you and me both. I still can't get over that one. Waking up to a very light rain/snow mix and a couple of peeks of sun was a real treat after basically closing down the state 12 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 you and me both. I still can't get over that one. Waking up to a very light rain/snow mix and a couple of peeks of sun was a real treat after basically closing down the state 12 hours earlier. I don't think there is a worse feeling than seeing a forecast of big snow during a time where you know that forecast will shut down rush hour bust on the low side as to being insignificant. What a terrible feeling that 2/10/10 bust was. I know you felt it worse than I did probably since you actually were talking to the governor. But that is also what I loved about the 2./23-24/10 storm....both of us (you were on that forecast desk right before that storm) got right back on the horse and predicted big snow in the hills of ORH county and western MA while the TV guys were ridiculously gun shy. We got redemption pretty quickly because I think we were the best at not letting the last failure affect our judgement. The TV guys got egg on their face again that storm while we didn't. BOX had a very solid forecast for that storm while TV had a terrible one. And I went balls to the wall too. Again, it was funny, ironically the Union, CT guy was the one giving me the most sh*t before the storm on my forecast even though I was lower down there with 5-9". The N ORH county guys were mostly "WTF? ok, if you say so, we'll get the plow calivary ready." But they all still kind of asked me what I was smoking in one way or the other...and this is coming right off that horrific 2/10/10 bust so my credibility was diminished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 A rare MRG meltdown in the Dec 09 storm thread...lol. Messenger getting 20" and Pete, cirrus. Well Ekster's old gang at BOX issued heavy snow warnings and were forecasting 12-18" and in the end not 1 single flake fell on my property. It was a raging virga storm overhead. Thanks for ripping the scab off that wound, I had almost forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I joust remember warning everyone of the elephant in the room. We were under a blizzard warning while our temperature was near 50 and CAR was something like 38. Most tried to drown me out but I was correct. If I ( serious snow weenie) downplay snow, take it seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I joust remember warning everyone of the elephant in the room. We were under a blizzard warning while our temperature was near 50 and CAR was something like 38. Most tried to drown me out but I was correct. If I ( serious snow weenie) downplay snow, take it seriously Which storm? 2/10/10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I don't think there is a worse feeling than seeing a forecast of big snow during a time where you know that forecast will shut down rush hour bust on the low side as to being insignificant. What a terrible feeling that 2/10/10 bust was. I know you felt it worse than I did probably since you actually were talking to the governor. But that is also what I loved about the 2./23-24/10 storm....both of us (you were on that forecast desk right before that storm) got right back on the horse and predicted big snow in the hills of ORH county and western MA while the TV guys were ridiculously gun shy. We got redemption pretty quickly because I think we were the best at not letting the last failure affect our judgement. The TV guys got egg on their face again that storm while we didn't. BOX had a very solid forecast for that storm while TV had a terrible one. And I went balls to the wall too. Again, it was funny, ironically the Union, CT guy was the one giving me the most sh*t before the storm on my forecast even though I was lower down there with 5-9". The N ORH county guys were mostly "WTF? ok, if you say so, we'll get the plow calivary ready." But they all still kind of asked me what I was smoking in one way or the other...and this is coming right off that horrific 2/10/10 bust so my credibility was diminished. That was a good storm and call by you...although the rain made it not so fun..How was your call for 2/27/10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I joust remember warning everyone of the elephant in the room. We were under a blizzard warning while our temperature was near 50 and CAR was something like 38. Most tried to drown me out but I was correct. If I ( serious snow weenie) downplay snow, take it seriously I distinctly remember you posting that. Dagblamed elephant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 That was a good storm and call by you...although the rain made it not so fun..How was your call for 2/27/10? 2/27/10 was impossible to forecast that little band of 8-10" in N ORH county. I did forecast advisory amounts in that which was better than some other forecasts, but that mesoscale band (almost looked convective) was impossible to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2011 Author Share Posted October 2, 2011 I wonder if the TV mets were mostly hugging the GFS in that February storm. I remember I posted the 950 temps on the euro for Will, and it seemed a lock for big wet snowbomb in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I miss having CPickles post. He loves snow more than just about anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Which storm? 2/10/10? I thought it was the storm that NYC ended up being buried by but we got rain as did Caribou...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I thought it was the storm that NYC ended up being buried by but we got rain as did Caribou...... Oh ok, well we were never under a blizzard watch or warning for that one. That was rain once we got to 48 hours before. I remember posting that the 2/23-24 elevation snow bomb would be bitter sweet because I knew a rainstorm was coming right after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I wonder if the TV mets were mostly hugging the GFS in that February storm. I remember I posted the 950 temps on the euro for Will, and it seemed a lock for big wet snowbomb in the interior. I can't imagine they were totally hugging it. I think most just got gun shy in a marginal setup. It was the GFS that had the biggest bust in the 2/10 storm so that would be even more ironic if they decided to hug the model that failed the worst in the 2/10 storm. I am still surprised at how conservative TV went in that 2/23-24 storm though. I mean, I can understand being afraid to forecast 8-14", but to be forecasting 1-3 or 2-4" seemed woefully conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2011 Author Share Posted October 2, 2011 I can't imagine they were totally hugging it. I think most just got gun shy in a marginal setup. It was the GFS that had the biggest bust in the 2/10 storm so that would be even more ironic if they decided to hug the model that failed the worst in the 2/10 storm. I am still surprised at how conservative TV went in that 2/23-24 storm though. I mean, I can understand being afraid to forecast 8-14", but to be forecasting 1-3 or 2-4" seemed woefully conservative. I know Harvey looks at the euro in more detail then perhaps some of them and he was the more bullish iirc, but still a little low. I mean February in the ORH hills....it's not an uncommon occurrence. But similar people were also going 12-24" back on 2/2 of this year as well. That was almost the complete opposite of 2/23-2/24. We talked about how there was no way people would get near 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I know Harvey looks at the euro in more detail then perhaps some of them and he was the more bullish iirc, but still a little low. I mean February in the ORH hills....it's not an uncommon occurrence. But similar people were also going 12-24" back on 2/2 of this year as well. That was almost the complete opposite of 2/23-2/24. We talked about how there was no way people we get near 2'. I think it shows that even mets can get caught up in the seasonal trend and that can sometimes influence our objectivity on looking at the individual storm at hand. Last year, every storm was putting down 1-2 feet leading up to that 2/2 event...so it was easy to get caught up in the models spitting out the qpf and assuming they were right or even conservative (like previous storms)....forgetting the golden rule that SW flow events are often overdone on model qpf and dryslot quickly. Same with 2/10 vs 2/24....every storm seemed to be whiffing us to the south, but on 2/24, missing south wasn't the issue. It was only whether temps would be cold enough. But I guess pessimistic was the overall theme that got into everyone's minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I know Harvey looks at the euro in more detail then perhaps some of them and he was the more bullish iirc, but still a little low. I mean February in the ORH hills....it's not an uncommon occurrence. But similar people were also going 12-24" back on 2/2 of this year as well. That was almost the complete opposite of 2/23-2/24. We talked about how there was no way people would get near 2'. If it hadn't flipped to rain at the end, it would have been awesome... as it was, 2/24 and 2/27 were my best 2 snow events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2011 Author Share Posted October 2, 2011 Dave you killed me in '09-'10. I had no chance in those late Feb storms...I even missed out in the big winds from 2/25-2/26 storm. Just 25 miles to my north had 70-80mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 2, 2011 Author Share Posted October 2, 2011 I know a lot of people don't really value wind as much as snow for a storm metric, but that storm was just ridiculous in terms of wind damage from Essex county up through NH and ME. It broke the record for storm surge at BOS harbor set from the blizzard of '78 iirc, but luckily this occurred at low tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 I know a lot of people don't really value wind as much as snow for a storm metric, but that storm was just ridiculous in terms of wind damage from Essex county up through NH and ME. It broke the record for storm surge at BOS harbor set from the blizzard of '78 iirc, but luckily this occurred at low tide. That was impressive, especially in coastal NH That could have been a historical event for ENE but for the temps For Pete and Rick it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Can anyone post a radar loop of the ice storm in 08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Can anyone post a radar loop of the ice storm in 08? Here's a snapshot. Will probably has a couple gigs of ice storm 2008 porn saved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Also just for fun, here's a total snowfall forecast from the NAM for the 2008 ice storm, in NAM fantasy range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Here's a snapshot. Will probably has a couple gigs of ice storm 2008 porn saved I was actually in costa rica, so I didn't experience the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Oh ok, well we were never under a blizzard watch or warning for that one. That was rain once we got to 48 hours before. I remember posting that the 2/23-24 elevation snow bomb would be bitter sweet because I knew a rainstorm was coming right after it. Then I must be thinking of another one. Even Harvey had egg on his face....a huge bust......maybe it was 2/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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