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2/13 Light/Moderate Snowfall Nowcasting & Observations


Northof78
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16 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this is dry enough for the city to wet bulb to freezing as the precip starts

image.thumb.png.bab7d75981e3e11d8b4d4b447e5ecc76.png

 

Yeah the problem will be the light crap post 15-16z that some models show persisting, that probably won't accumulate but I doubt more than 10-15% of the total snow shown as of now falls after that time period anyway

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29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a significant amplification trend on the NAM... the entire trough has been tilting more favorably for an entire model cycle. something to watch for coastal peeps as that's really close to an interesting outcome

324520546_namconus_z500_vort_us_fh24_trend(1).thumb.gif.44ee699f39dda15d6cd7961eeadece1f.gif

Exactly.  Once this started trending early this morning, I became excited.  Some of the most memorable "surprise" coastal mini-events have come out of similar setups.  (Ill post some examples shortly.)

This has the potential to crank for 2-4 hours during early morning hours.  A 3-5 inch paste to powder event is not a far stretch.  2014-2015 provided quite a few of these to the sub forum.  

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6 minutes ago, dseagull said:

Exactly.  Once this started trending early this morning, I became excited.  Some of the most memorable "surprise" coastal mini-events have come out of similar setups.  (Ill post some examples shortly.)

This has the potential to crank for 2-4 hours during early morning hours.  A 3-5 inch paste to powder event is not a far stretch.  2014-2015 provided quite a few of these to the sub forum.  

Just like the storm for superbowl last year.

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32 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Look at the new RGEM, it’s almost identical to the Euro

That wasn't my question but I get it, you follow the model(s) that gives the least precip every single event. Rinse. Lather. Repeat. My area is going to get maybe an inch if I'm lucky, but most people on this board could see 1-3 inches which is just fine for a SB Sunday. 

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33 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

That wasn't my question but I get it, you follow the model(s) that gives the least precip every single event. Rinse. Lather. Repeat. My area is going to get maybe an inch if I'm lucky, but most people on this board could see 1-3 inches which is just fine for a SB Sunday. 

Well I think I can speak for almost everyone on this thread when I say, that when it does snow later on this evening and when all is said and done = I hope that snowman jackpots and does the best out of all of us, he deserves it :thumbsup:

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21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

hrdps_asnow_neus_47.png

I cannot believe it, but that actually looks like an accurate assessment.  The heavier QPF will wind up closer to the coast, (as it always does in these progressive systems...) but the ground temperature will dictate any accumulation totals 

I'm on board with it.  Shift the axis of accumulation about 20-30 degrees counter clockwise and maybe a 15 mile shift east,  and that is it.... seen this scenario play out enough.   Wilmington "Dela WHERE?"- Burlington county, NJ- NYC will jackpot.... this system is juiced on WV.   

I'll put 4-5 inches on black,  please ...

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

12 hour event?

 

Wildcard.  If you buy into the short term solutions, anywhere from 6-10 hours.   Those who cool quickly can absolutely recieve 3-5.   Look at this thing digging.   Someone is going to do REALLY well.  

I'm saying 40 miles to my NW will crush it with 6 inch lollies.   Delaware Watergap special.  

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