weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Do these maps ever really pan out? And won't they be different later on tonight? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Do these maps ever really pan out? And won't they be different later on tonight? NAM is in its better range at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I hope this pans out for a 1 to 3 or 2 to 4. Nice snowfall not to much to muck up super bowl party. Plus good to get in before we mild up. Per the article I sent earlier we always have a shot in March due to volatility (likely not till mid March if at all). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 19 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Do these maps ever really pan out? And won't they be different later on tonight? It's not showing any big amounts. 1-3, isolated 4 is certainly plausible. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Superbowl 2021 redux ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 this is dry enough for the city to wet bulb to freezing as the precip starts 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 this is a significant amplification trend on the NAM... the entire trough has been tilting more favorably for an entire model cycle. something to watch for coastal peeps as that's really close to an interesting outcome 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this is dry enough for the city to wet bulb to freezing as the precip starts Yeah the problem will be the light crap post 15-16z that some models show persisting, that probably won't accumulate but I doubt more than 10-15% of the total snow shown as of now falls after that time period anyway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Warm air ahead of this adds a lot of juice plus it's a red flag that indicates the low may end up further NW. Could be interesting tonight 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said: You were hugging the 18z 3k yesterday because it showed lighter precip and practically nothing N and W. Are you going to place any credence in today's 18z? Look at the new RGEM, it’s almost identical to the Euro 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Nws has 1-4 for my zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is a significant amplification trend on the NAM... the entire trough has been tilting more favorably for an entire model cycle. something to watch for coastal peeps as that's really close to an interesting outcome Exactly. Once this started trending early this morning, I became excited. Some of the most memorable "surprise" coastal mini-events have come out of similar setups. (Ill post some examples shortly.) This has the potential to crank for 2-4 hours during early morning hours. A 3-5 inch paste to powder event is not a far stretch. 2014-2015 provided quite a few of these to the sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, weatherpruf said: Do these maps ever really pan out? And won't they be different later on tonight? 8 inches near Philly? lol We'll be lucky if we get half these amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 High of 58, down to 52 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, dseagull said: Exactly. Once this started trending early this morning, I became excited. Some of the most memorable "surprise" coastal mini-events have come out of similar setups. (Ill post some examples shortly.) This has the potential to crank for 2-4 hours during early morning hours. A 3-5 inch paste to powder event is not a far stretch. 2014-2015 provided quite a few of these to the sub forum. Just like the storm for superbowl last year. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 32 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Look at the new RGEM, it’s almost identical to the Euro That wasn't my question but I get it, you follow the model(s) that gives the least precip every single event. Rinse. Lather. Repeat. My area is going to get maybe an inch if I'm lucky, but most people on this board could see 1-3 inches which is just fine for a SB Sunday. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 33 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: That wasn't my question but I get it, you follow the model(s) that gives the least precip every single event. Rinse. Lather. Repeat. My area is going to get maybe an inch if I'm lucky, but most people on this board could see 1-3 inches which is just fine for a SB Sunday. Well I think I can speak for almost everyone on this thread when I say, that when it does snow later on this evening and when all is said and done = I hope that snowman jackpots and does the best out of all of us, he deserves it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 anyone have a guesstimate for start time for this event ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I cannot believe it, but that actually looks like an accurate assessment. The heavier QPF will wind up closer to the coast, (as it always does in these progressive systems...) but the ground temperature will dictate any accumulation totals I'm on board with it. Shift the axis of accumulation about 20-30 degrees counter clockwise and maybe a 15 mile shift east, and that is it.... seen this scenario play out enough. Wilmington "Dela WHERE?"- Burlington county, NJ- NYC will jackpot.... this system is juiced on WV. I'll put 4-5 inches on black, please ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: anyone have a guesstimate for start time for this event ? 2-3am 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 15 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: 2-3am 12 hour event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dseagull Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 12 hour event? Wildcard. If you buy into the short term solutions, anywhere from 6-10 hours. Those who cool quickly can absolutely recieve 3-5. Look at this thing digging. Someone is going to do REALLY well. I'm saying 40 miles to my NW will crush it with 6 inch lollies. Delaware Watergap special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Washed my car in a tee shirt yesterday.... hoping for a miss in Rockland. I want big or zip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Euro keeps nudging more QPF NE past the NYC metro in that 06-12Z period again on the 18Z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I've been hearing that some models temps for right now are running to warm. Shockingly I'm already to 45 which I didn't expect to happen so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Euro bumped the totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro bumped the totals Maps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 42 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: I've been hearing that some models temps for right now are running to warm. Shockingly I'm already to 45 which I didn't expect to happen so quickly. sea breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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