2/13 Light/Moderate Snowfall Nowcasting & Observations

[MJO812]

HRRR

[Franklin0529]

Have a hard time believing any of this will stick with the warm week we Had.  Hopefully rates can overcome the warm ground 

[SnowGoose69]

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

HRRR

HRRR is usually too far NW at end of range, same as RUC/RAP had.  The RGEM/Euro/3K is probably a safe bet idea.  The GFS as usual due to resolution issues cannot resolve the frontogenesis/jet dynamics inducing that band and is probably washing it out due to the CAA that it thinks is drying out the lower and mid levels 

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Have a hard time believing any of this will stick with the warm week we Had.  Hopefully rates can overcome the warm ground 

It comes out night with temperatures dropping below 30. Doesn't matter how warm its been.

[wthrmn654]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It comes out night with temperatures dropping below 30. Doesn't matter how warm its been.

Well, it does and it doesn't.  Grassy surfaces and metal surfaces always stick first.  Unless temps dropping well at least 27°F or more say at least hour before precip starts , better chances that things will stick quicker.  But closer to 32 and it's more dicey. Daytime snow unless moderate/ heavy and with temps also beow 30 this time of year do better then moderate snow 31 or 32, paved surfaces especially. 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

The SPC HREF largely likes the corridor from TTN-WRI up across central and E LI where it indicates max potential of 5...it shows 1.5 around NYC on the mean with 2-2.5 over LI and almost all of C-SNJ 

[MJO812]

52 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It comes out night with temperatures dropping below 30. Doesn't matter how warm its been.

Agree

[MJO812]

56 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

HRRR is usually too far NW at end of range, same as RUC/RAP had.  The RGEM/Euro/3K is probably a safe bet idea.  The GFS as usual due to resolution issues cannot resolve the frontogenesis/jet dynamics inducing that band and is probably washing it out due to the CAA that it thinks is drying out the lower and mid levels 

Gfs is an outlier right now 

Hrdps

[jm1220]

If the snow is falling moderate or better and temp is 32, the warm ground won’t matter and snow will stick. I’m thinking 1-3” for most of us but could be a surprise 4-5” if the fronto banding shown on the HRRR especially does work out. All in all a perfect example of this season of a system that will deliver in a way but a few minor tweaks could have been much better. 

[donsutherland1]

HREF:

[Northof78]

1-3”, isolated 4/5” amounts a few places where bands set up

[wthrmn654]

41 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The SPC HREF largely likes the corridor from TTN-WRI up across central and E LI where it indicates max potential of 5...it shows 1.5 around NYC on the mean with 2-2.5 over LI and almost all of C-SNJ 

This translates to a 1-4 inches kinda forecast. Though even saying a coating to 3 wouldn't be bad either. 

[wthrmn654]

But in other news it's 58 and I'm on the east end where this time of year the water doesn't allow much warmth.  That's a surprise.

[Metasequoia]

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If the snow is falling moderate or better and temp is 32, the warm ground won’t matter and snow will stick. I’m thinking 1-3” for most of us but could be a surprise 4-5” if the fronto banding shown on the HRRR especially does work out. All in all a perfect example of this season of a system that will deliver in a way but a few minor tweaks could have been much better. 

I'm keeping my expectations in check for Manhattan where I live. You are in a much better position though. 

[weathermedic]

8 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

But in other news it's 58 and I'm on the east end where this time of year the water doesn't allow much warmth.  That's a surprise.

Wind westerly so not much of an ocean influence.

[MJO812]

25 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

1-3”, isolated 4/5” amounts a few places where bands set up

That's a good forecast

[MJO812]

[RU848789]

6 hours ago, wdrag said:

You all have it... small chance 4" somewhere in I95 axis, BUT... snow melts on contact during periods of lighter snowfall (1 mile or more) during the daylight hours 10A-4P even if temps upper 20s.  I work in it here in Sussex County NJ and watch this happen frequently. So that will impact snow totals NYC CP and of course roads generally wet so i suspect no advisory situation. More of an SPS for any bands of 1/2Mile moderate which might happen and of course untreated's snow-covered prior to 9A.

You may have noticed that this may start briefly as an hour of rain I95 midnight-3A (RGEM)

E LI might be interesting but temps mostly lower 30s there so I guess there will be alot of compacting-melting to minimize possible snow depth. 

I expect 1-3" Sussex County NJ, most of it by 9A Sunday. 

Agree with everything, except for one caveat.  Remember, if we get decent rates before 8 am, which is forecast, we'll get some accumulation on untreated paved surfaces and once snow gains a foothold on the paved surface, subsequent snow is falling on high albedo snow at 32F, where it will accumulate much easier than on actual blacktop.  

[MJO812]

HRRR coming in snowier 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Poor snowman 

 

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Poor snowman 

Poor me? Lol This is an inch of snow coming off temps in the mid to upper 50’s less than 12 hours before. The HRRR is too far NW as usual and by game time it will be back to reality like the other models. The Euro is the best depiction of what is very likely to happen tomorrow morning 

[MJO812]

Nam is coming in snowier for alot of areas . Low is also further northwest. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Poor me? Lol This is an inch of snow coming off temps in the mid to upper 50’s less than 12 hours before. The HRRR is too far NW as usual and by game time it will be back to reality like the other models. The Euro is the best depiction of what is very likely to happen tomorrow morning 

And what is wrong with a 1-3 inch type event for most of the forum? 

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Every model is getting heavier

Just quit your trolling act

We’ll see how much snow NYC has tomorrow morning around 10 when this ends. I’ll be sure to post the amounts and the pics 

[MJO812]

Same thing is happening now that happened with the rain event we had last week. The storm kept coming west.

[Brian5671]

classic arctic wave-they alway improve right up to game time-we saw this often in winters of 13-14 and 14-15

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Same thing is happening now that happened with the rain event we had last week. The storm kept coming west.

I've no confidence in this event, but in a way since my son has to drive to the Bronx Zoo tomorrow for a class I kinda hope it peters out. Which means we probably get 4 inches no one prepared for in the roads dept....

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

classic arctic wave-they alway improve right up to game time-we saw this often in winters of 13-14 and 14-15

We had the -EPO and we don't have that now. I don't think this will amount to much. But who knows. Note; I don't actually know what the EPO is but I've read enough about it here to know it's what caused the snowy winters of those years despite lack of -NAO ( IIRC....)

[HeadInTheClouds]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Poor me? Lol This is an inch of snow coming off temps in the mid to upper 50’s less than 12 hours before. The HRRR is too far NW as usual and by game time it will be back to reality like the other models. The Euro is the best depiction of what is very likely to happen tomorrow morning 

You were hugging the 18z 3k yesterday because it showed lighter precip and practically nothing N and W. Are you going to place any credence in today's 18z? 

[MJO812]