wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Nam looks good so far. Amounts didn't go down from first glance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 NAM looks to put highest amounts in interior N NJ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Whacky output with 12k so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3km output is much more uniform 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 12k nam gives nothing to li essentially but nyc west does lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 This would make two snowy Super Bowl Sundays in a row. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.Pete Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I will take my 6-8” on the ICON and run for the hills. . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 The NAM/GFS did not show it in QPF but LI and cntrl-ern CT are back in this for sure as far as meaningful snow...I still think it organizes too late for NYC but there still probably will be more snow than the NAM/GFS show and more like the RGEM...the HRRR might be too generous 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: 12k nam gives nothing to li essentially but nyc west does lol The 12km and 3km NAMs have been wildly divergent in their snowfall maps for a couple of days. Seems like the 12km is having trouble resolving convection at its larger grid scale or at least I hope so - will take the 3km please. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Nice to see the first run in 3 days of the UK showing a decent snowfall. Man has that model just fallen off the wagon or what? I could definitely see the NBM being the forecast after looking at the models (assuming the Euro doesn't do something unexpected - I'd love to see ~2" along the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Mid to upper 50s on Saturday, so mostly white rain in NYC. Grass and cartops elsewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Mid to upper 50s on Saturday, so mostly white rain in NYC. Grass and cartops elsewhere? What white rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: What white rain ? I just doubt the ground will be cold enough on Sunday and the snow heavy enough to accumulate much if at all in NYC. If the low strengthens more than expected and/or tracks further NW, that might make a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 32 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: I just doubt the ground will be cold enough on Sunday and the snow heavy enough to accumulate much if at all in NYC. If the low strengthens more than expected and/or tracks further NW, that might make a difference. Temps are going to be in the upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Good to see the Euro looking better too. Gets the 2 inch line up close to our area now. Instead of it trending to a non event, the models are trending a little better as we get closer. Still a light event, but 1 to 2 inches is a heck of a lot better than a dusting. Hopefully this solution will hold tomorrow, or even improve a little bit more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 hours ago, Northof78 said: NAM looks to put highest amounts in interior N NJ Makes sense, because it will be coldest there. First thing to do is make sure temperatures fall quickly tomorrow night. Remember that "storm" where we were all supposed to get like 3-5" and the temperatures didn't fall quickly enough and we didn't even get anything measurable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 46 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Good to see the Euro looking better too. Gets the 2 inch line up close to our area now. Instead of it trending to a non event, the models are trending a little better as we get closer. Still a light event, but 1 to 2 inches is a heck of a lot better than a dusting. Hopefully this solution will hold tomorrow, or even improve a little bit more. Yeah I'll be ecstatic if we go from 1-2 inches to 2-3 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: 3km output is much more uniform Do you have a larger map of the 3km NAM? The one I looked at was microscopic couldn't see the gradients on it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1-3 inches on the 6z Euro for the coast 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 1-3 inches on the 6z Euro for the coast HRRR a little overboard with 4-6 in Suffolk County? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 You all have it... small chance 4" somewhere in I95 axis, BUT... snow melts on contact during periods of lighter snowfall (1 mile or more) during the daylight hours 10A-4P even if temps upper 20s. I work in it here in Sussex County NJ and watch this happen frequently. So that will impact snow totals NYC CP and of course roads generally wet so i suspect no advisory situation. More of an SPS for any bands of 1/2Mile moderate which might happen and of course untreated's snow-covered prior to 9A. You may have noticed that this may start briefly as an hour of rain I95 midnight-3A (RGEM) E LI might be interesting but temps mostly lower 30s there so I guess there will be alot of compacting-melting to minimize possible snow depth. I expect 1-3" Sussex County NJ, most of it by 9A Sunday. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Hi res Nam so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 garbage 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I know the HRRR is a very inconsistent model. Hopefully it will score a victory with this one. It continues to show a solid 3 inch snowfall for the entire area on its 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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