Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,598
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    PublicWorks143
    Newest Member
    PublicWorks143
    Joined

2/13 Light/Moderate Snowfall Nowcasting & Observations


Northof78
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said:

12k nam gives nothing to li essentially  but nyc west does lol

The 12km and 3km NAMs have been wildly divergent in their snowfall maps for a couple of days.  Seems like the 12km is having trouble resolving convection at its larger grid scale or at least I hope so - will take the 3km please.  

1180983126_models-2022021200-f045.sn10_acc.us_ma(1).gif.b423873edff2cad94ac826a0715e069a.gif

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice to see the first run in 3 days of the UK showing a decent snowfall. Man has that model just fallen off the wagon or what?  I could definitely see the NBM being the forecast after looking at the models (assuming the Euro doesn't do something unexpected - I'd love to see ~2" along the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC.  

 

sn10_acc.us_ma.png

 

snowfall_acc.us_ne.png

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

I just doubt the ground will be cold enough on Sunday and the snow heavy enough to accumulate much if at all in NYC. If the low strengthens more than expected and/or tracks further NW, that might make a difference. 

Temps are going to be in the upper 20s

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

Good to see the Euro looking better too. Gets the 2 inch line up close to our area now. Instead of it trending to a non event, the models are trending a little better as we get closer. Still a light event, but 1 to 2 inches is a heck of a lot better than a dusting. Hopefully this solution will hold tomorrow, or even improve a little bit more.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Northof78 said:

NAM looks to put highest amounts in interior N NJ

Makes sense, because it will be coldest there.  First thing to do is make sure temperatures fall quickly tomorrow night.  Remember that "storm" where we were all supposed to get like 3-5" and the temperatures didn't fall quickly enough and we didn't even get anything measurable?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Good to see the Euro looking better too. Gets the 2 inch line up close to our area now. Instead of it trending to a non event, the models are trending a little better as we get closer. Still a light event, but 1 to 2 inches is a heck of a lot better than a dusting. Hopefully this solution will hold tomorrow, or even improve a little bit more.

Yeah I'll be ecstatic if we go from 1-2 inches to 2-3 inches lol

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You all have it... small chance 4" somewhere in I95 axis, BUT... snow melts on contact during periods of lighter snowfall (1 mile or more) during the daylight hours 10A-4P even if temps upper 20s.  I work in it here in Sussex County NJ and watch this happen frequently. So that will impact snow totals NYC CP and of course roads generally wet so i suspect no advisory situation. More of an SPS for any bands of 1/2Mile moderate which might happen and of course untreated's snow-covered prior to 9A.

You may have noticed that this may start briefly as an hour of rain I95 midnight-3A (RGEM)

E LI might be interesting but temps mostly lower 30s there so I guess there will be alot of compacting-melting to minimize possible snow depth. 

I expect 1-3" Sussex County NJ, most of it by 9A Sunday. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...