2/13 Light/Moderate Snowfall Nowcasting & Observations

[snowman19]

7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Funny how you point to those off hour runs though when it helps your agenda. 

Your area isn’t getting anything regardless lol but look at the 3K NAM, it looks nothing at all like the 12K NAM. Huge Red flag right there something is wrong with that outlier run

[brooklynwx99]

I mean... the NAM and HRRR make meteorological sense in their depictions of the precip shield

the NAM only beefed up because of a more potent 250mb jet, which checks out. models often underdo blossoming precip in those scenarios, so we'll have to see if other mesos catch on to the stronger jet streak 

[HVSnowLover]

The places that have gotten snow all winter will get more snow. Guess we need to move to ACY?  

[winterwx21]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

The places that have gotten snow all winter will get more snow. Guess we need to move to ACY?  

I'm still irritated about that storm in early January that gave ACY 13 inches of snow while we got nothing. It has become more and more common in recent years for coastal areas (especially Long Island) to get much more snow than areas to the north and west. It seems to be part of our new climate.

 

Anyway, we can hope that the 18z runs of NAM and HRRR are a sign that the sunday morning event will trend better to become the type of event that gives us a few inches. Seems unlikely, but there is a slight chance. Most likely it's a very light event. 18z RGEM gives most of the area close to an inch. At least it looks likely that we'll get a little accumulation. I'll enjoy any little bit we get, especially since the pattern for late February doesn't look good. This could be our only snow of the month.

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'm still irritated about that storm in early January that gave ACY 13 inches of snow while we got nothing. It has become more and more common in recent years for coastal areas (especially Long Island) to get much more snow than areas to the north and west. It seems to be part of our new climate.

 

Anyway, we can hope that the 18z runs of NAM and HRRR are a sign that the sunday morning event will trend better to become the type of event that gives us a few inches. Seems unlikely, but there is a slight chance. Most likely it's a very light event. 18z RGEM gives most of the area close to an inch. At least it looks likely that we'll get a little accumulation. I'll enjoy any little bit we get, especially since the pattern for late February doesn't look good. This could be our only snow of the month.

Last year was a more 90s type winter where areas North and West did a lot better than the coast. I agree since 2010 LI/Jersey Shore seem to get the heaviest snows. 

 

I agree even 1-3 inches would be nice with this, would be a nice send off to winter before the milder pattern takes over.  

[lee59]

10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I'm still irritated about that storm in early January that gave ACY 13 inches of snow while we got nothing. It has become more and more common in recent years for coastal areas (especially Long Island) to get much more snow than areas to the north and west. It seems to be part of our new climate.

 

Anyway, we can hope that the 18z runs of NAM and HRRR are a sign that the sunday morning event will trend better to become the type of event that gives us a few inches. Seems unlikely, but there is a slight chance. Most likely it's a very light event. 18z RGEM gives most of the area close to an inch. At least it looks likely that we'll get a little accumulation. I'll enjoy any little bit we get, especially since the pattern for late February doesn't look good. This could be our only snow of the month.

The coast does hit the jackpot sometimes with large totals from Nor' easters but the areas north and west still get more snow. The snow also  sticks around much longer when you get away from the coast.

[Northof78]

GFS finally coming around with a 1-2" snowfall in N/C NJ and NYC, more in C/S NJ

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

GFS finally coming around with a 1-2" snowfall in N/C NJ and NYC, more in C/S NJ

I wonder how much more west it will come 

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wonder how much more west it will come 

Not much...it'll just start to snow more QPF probably as it picks up on the jet feature and frontogenesis as Walt pointed out.  I think the ceiling for the city with this is 3 wit the possibility ISP and east could see 5 but you'll still need continued improvement for that...1.5 and 3 are more likely 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Not much...it'll just start to snow more QPF probably as it picks up on the jet feature and frontogenesis as Walt pointed out.  I think the ceiling for the city with this is 3 wit the possibility ISP and east could see 5 but you'll still need continued improvement for that...1.5 and 3 are more likely 

Locals are going with 3" tops just east of the city, so perhaps down here by JFK?

How much does JFK need to reach 20" seasonal? I think less than 1"?  What about LGA?

You can't say it's been a bad winter if we reach 20"-- that's within our normal range.

 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Locals are going with 3" tops just east of the city, so perhaps down here by JFK?

How much does JFK need to reach 20" seasonal? I think less than 1"?  What about LGA?

You can't say it's been a bad winter if we reach 20"-- that's within our normal range.

 

Agree the totals aren't terrible. I think it feels worse because basically the season snowfall are all from two storms so we've only had two real snow events all winter.  

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree the totals aren't terrible. I think it feels worse because basically the season snowfall are all from two storms so we've only had two real snow events all winter.  

It also feels worse when you see how well ACY did.  Over 30" down there usually means over 40" up here.  I would like to see all NYC totals in which ACY received over 30" of seasonal snowfall.

 

I would say that two storms giving us most of the snow is fine as long as both are a foot plus lol.

 

 

[gravitylover]

So I'm at about 13" so far, I should be around 20 and annual is 48-50. Keep complaining, go on... Winter's over. I'm going to put together some new bikes tomorrow. I might wash the car too. 

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

So I'm at about 13" so far, I should be around 20 and annual is 48-50. Keep complaining, go on... Winter's over. I'm going to put together some new bikes tomorrow. I might wash the car too. 

The easiest way to tell winter's over is that I sneezed five times today, had itchy eyes and saw and swatted a mosquito.

Time to bring out the chemical weapons I guess.

 

[donsutherland1]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It also feels worse when you see how well ACY did.  Over 30" down there usually means over 40" up here.  I would like to see all NYC totals in which ACY received over 30" of seasonal snowfall.

 

I would say that two storms giving us most of the snow is fine as long as both are a foot plus lol.

 

 

1957-1958	44.7
1960-1961	54.7
1963-1964	44.7
1966-1967	51.5
1978-1979	29.4
1986-1987	23.1
1995-1996	75.6
2002-2003	49.3
2010-2011	61.9
2013-2014	57.4
2017-2018	40.9

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

1957-1958	44.7
1960-1961	54.7
1963-1964	44.7
1966-1967	51.5
1978-1979	29.4
1986-1987	23.1
1995-1996	75.6
2002-2003	49.3
2010-2011	61.9
2013-2014	57.4
2017-2018	40.9

So this is a definite outlier, Don!

If 1986-87 is the lowest then we definitely have some ground to make up!

How about Islip >30" with NYC <20"?  I bet that hasn't happened much either?

 

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

So this is a definite outlier, Don!

If 1986-87 is the lowest then we definitely have some ground to make up!

How about Islip >30" with NYC <20"?  I bet that hasn't happened much either?

 

NYC's snowfall when ISP reported 30" or more:

1963-1964    44.7
1964-1965    24.4
1966-1967    51.5
1968-1969    30.2
1973-1974    23.5
1975-1976    17.3
1977-1978    50.7
1981-1982    24.6
1982-1983    27.2
1993-1994    53.4
1995-1996    75.6
2000-2001    35.0
2004-2005    41.0
2005-2006    40.0
2008-2009    27.6
2009-2010    51.4
2010-2011    61.9
2012-2013    26.1
2013-2014    57.4
2014-2015    50.3
2015-2016    32.8
2016-2017    30.2
2017-2018    40.9
2020-2021    38.6

 

[STORMANLI]

I believe KLGA received 9.7" and 10.7" respectively from the 2 Jan snows. They have at least 20.4" so far without adding in the other smaller events.

[LibertyBell]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC's snowfall when ISP reported 30" or more:

1963-1964    44.7
1964-1965    24.4
1966-1967    51.5
1968-1969    30.2
1973-1974    23.5
1975-1976    17.3
1977-1978    50.7
1981-1982    24.6
1982-1983    27.2
1993-1994    53.4
1995-1996    75.6
2000-2001    35.0
2004-2005    41.0
2005-2006    40.0
2008-2009    27.6
2009-2010    51.4
2010-2011    61.9
2012-2013    26.1
2013-2014    57.4
2014-2015    50.3
2015-2016    32.8
2016-2017    30.2
2017-2018    40.9
2020-2021    38.6

 

2008-2009    27.6
2009-2010    51.4
2010-2011    61.9
2012-2013    26.1
2013-2014    57.4
2014-2015    50.3
2015-2016    32.8
2016-2017    30.2
2017-2018    40.9

 

wow!  so there's a streak here of 9/10 winters with 30"+ at ISP and NYC had 26"+ in all those winters! (with 7/9 of them 30"+)

 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

I believe KLGA received 9.7" and 10.7" respectively from the 2 Jan snows. They have at least 20.4" so far without adding in the other smaller events.

Thanks so now we just need to get JFK to 20" (will more than likely happen Sunday) and with 20"+ at 2/3 of the city official recording sites, I think we can safely say this has been a normal snowfall winter.

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC's snowfall when ISP reported 30" or more:

1963-1964    44.7
1964-1965    24.4
1966-1967    51.5
1968-1969    30.2
1973-1974    23.5
1975-1976    17.3
1977-1978    50.7
1981-1982    24.6
1982-1983    27.2
1993-1994    53.4
1995-1996    75.6
2000-2001    35.0
2004-2005    41.0
2005-2006    40.0
2008-2009    27.6
2009-2010    51.4
2010-2011    61.9
2012-2013    26.1
2013-2014    57.4
2014-2015    50.3
2015-2016    32.8
2016-2017    30.2
2017-2018    40.9
2020-2021    38.6

 

Only one of these were under 20", so not unprecedented but close to it.

and ACY for sure didn't see anywhere near 30" in 1975-76 did they, Don?

 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks so now we just need to get JFK to 20" (will more than likely happen Sunday) and with 20"+ at 2/3 of the city official recording sites, I think we can safely say this has been a normal snowfall winter.

 

Normal ? It will still be below normal 

[Jt17]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Normal ? It will still be below normal 

I think he means through the current date. 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Jt17 said:

I think he means through the current date. 

Yeah, also normal should be a range rather than a single number.  JFK normal snowfall for the entire year is around 22"...so if they get to 20" it's within their normal range.

 

[donsutherland1]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Only one of these were under 20", so not unprecedented but close to it.

and ACY for sure didn't see anywhere near 30" in 1975-76 did they, Don?

 

ACY had 10.0” during 1975-76.

[wthrmn654]

Are the hurricane hunters lost right now lmfao

What kinda flight pattern is this? 

[wthrmn654]

[wthrmn654]

[TJW014]

18z Euro shifted northwest, and a tad wetter. 

[RU848789]

Thought the Channel 7 (Lee Goldberg/Jeff Smith) map was pretty good, although several of the 18Z models look even a bit snowier than that.  Will be interesting to see if 18Z was a blip or a trend.  Will start to see shortly, I guess.  Would be nice to get an overperformer for a change.