wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 It will snow everywhere (80% chance in my opinion), maybe preceded by a little rain at 2AM Sunday on I95? Probably melt after 9AM on all road surfaces. NWS Blend of models 1/2-2" for our subforum as of 5A today. Sharpening trough..still bears monitoring for periods of snow into early Monday LI-NJ coast. RGEM/NAM/HRRR operational models to monitor for trends down or up. Chance of snowfall above 2" is only 40% at most as of the 4AM NWS ensembles. Still a worthy monitor for winters goodness. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 3k Nam is nice for South Jersey Snow magnet this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 wow, three inches 1 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: wow, three inches Good morning forky. Try to have some compassion, for some of us its all we can manage. As always …. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: wow, three inches That won’t stick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: wow, three inches I'll sign up for the 3 inches while I get screwed again up here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Thats a pretty stupid jet core in place...would not be surprised if there is more QPF spit out than being shown now, especially by globals like GFS which have nothing 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Sunday morning the southern stream energy will begin to eject east and then northeast ahead of the approaching mid-level low pressure. Simultaneously, the upper level low will be approaching from the west with guidance being fairly consistent on FGEN forcing developing Sunday morning. The sloped ascent appears to setup from southeast NJ to eastern PA. The latest run of the GFS and ECWMF have most of the QPF across central NJ Sunday morning while the CMC has the QPF over eastern PA. The other item of related interest here is the development of surface low pressure off the NC coast Sunday morning. The CMC keeps the mid-level low closed off longer and less progressive, allowing for a slightly deeper and further west surface low. Guidance is also showing another wave diving southeast out of south/ central Canada Sunday afternoon. This would favor a slightly more progressive pattern. Taking a look at the latest GEFS/ EPS/ and GEPS, a slightly more progressive pattern appears favored at this time. The precipitation- type for this event will likely be all snow as thermal profiles rapidly cool Sunday morning. I will channel Roger Staubach today.....well just because anyone gives a dang ======= ...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Day 3... Digging 500 mb shortwave trough over the Mid-South Saturday evening will move through the Southeast by early Sunday near the entrance regions of the northern (130kt) and southern (110kt) jet. Frontal boundary along the coast may focus an area of low pressure that tracks along or just offshore that would spread precipitation back across portions of the region. There continues to be many uncertainties ranging from track, phasing, and intensity as well as thermal profiles as the precipitation changes from rain to snow. For now, the greatest probabilities for 2 inches lies over the central Appalachians/Blue Ridge in VA (20-40 percent) while lower probabilities of 10-20% exist through the Mid-Atlantic to southern New England. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: That won’t stick Agreed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 UKMET did finally come around to more of an idea of a band of snow along the coast 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I like your take on it Doorman. While there was never much of consequence with this episode a 10-20% chance of little to nothing sounds just about right. Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 EURO anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, Northof78 said: EURO anything? Not much change. Coating to an inch and a half for most of the area. Of course we will be coming off very warm weather with a warm ground, so most accumulation would be on colder surfaces. It does help though that this will be happening early in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 38 minutes ago, Northof78 said: EURO anything? It's over 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's over I see you onto hurricane season already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's over Agreed. It’s a sheared out, disjointed mess of nothing that never gets its act together, fast flow and the lifting just falls apart. All 12z models show this. The metro area will be lucky to see an inch, most will get a dusting/coating on the grass and car tops 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: UKMET did finally come around to more of an idea of a band of snow along the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Other then a couple of moderate events it’s been an awful winter. Im going to need a MECS in March just to get to normal annual snowfall but I’m not holding my breath on it. Already looking forward to a better setup next winter with an El Niño forcasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Major? I would need 3 majors. I could do it with 2 historics or possibly one biblical but that's a stretch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 NAM may be on drugs but it looks like a light event and close to something more if the coastal had slightly more time to move north before being kicked east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: NAM may be on drugs but it looks like a light event and close to something more if the coastal had slightly more time to move north before being kicked east... It’s on drugs. It’s the NAM being the NAM, it usually does this at either 6z or 18z, no other model is showing anything even close to that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 FGEN generated... take a look at 700MB FGEN on trop tidbits. Also 18z HRRR is looking decent. Blend all the same cycle models for qpf and snowfall and cross your fingers. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: It’s on drugs. It’s the NAM being the NAM, it usually does this at either 6z or 18z, no other model is showing anything even close to that Funny how you point to those off hour runs though when it helps your agenda. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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