LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Final solution? Looks like our typical mild pattern 1-2 inch event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, snowman19 said: A moderate event is now off the table. That ship has sailed Lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 52 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Lol This ain't Maine, snowman's reverse-weeinism religion is going to be right more often than wrong, just how it is in our area. Plot twist: snowman loves snowstorms more than anyone and is simply trying to always reverse jinx them into existence 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 35 minutes ago, romba said: This ain't Maine, snowman's reverse-weeinism religion is going to be right more often than wrong, just how it is in our area. Plot twist: snowman loves snowstorms more than anyone and is simply trying to always reverse jinx them into existence 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: A moderate event is now off the table. That ship has sailed Good evening S19, romba. Regardless of precipitation preference, it must take a strong character and a steel set of Joey Chestnuts to give and receive that many weenies without flinching. As always ….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I’m sure everyone will be shocked but the new ICON has nothing, zippo for Sunday 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Glad you are still checking though. Keep us updated 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I didn't know the final outcome of a storm is decided 3 days out. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 31 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I didn't know the final outcome of a storm is decided 3 days out. Agree 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 New Math? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Still some uncertainty re snow chances from late Sat night into Sunday as low pressure passes well to the SE and the area falls underneath or very close to upper jet and mid level frontogenetic forcing. ECMWF, after trending farther south for a couple of cycles, has come back a little NW, while other global models are farther south/east. Forecast splits the difference, with chance snow for the entire area during this time frame. Liquid equivalent QPF forecast by the operational models is mostly less than 1/10 inch throughout per GFS/Canadian, and about 1/10 inch from NYC east per ECMWF and less NW. Meanwhile, ensemble means suggest a little more QPF, with about 1/10 inch from NYC north/west and 1-2 tenths for Long Island. SLR should be fairly high though in the cold air mass, running between 12-15:1, so a 1-2 inch snowfall still seems quite possible, with the higher amts to the east and south of NYC, possibly also in the higher elevations inland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: I didn't know the final outcome of a storm is decided 3 days out. Final outcome of WHAT storm? There never really was any model that with any consistency indicated anything beyond a few inches for the NY metro. There was never any solution that truly bombed out near or right inside the benchmark. At least for the storm last week, there were some consistent indications at this point (72 hours ahead of time) even though there were variations in the solutions. Look, technically, you're right. There's always a chance. You never know. But you never know if the Yankees are going to win a ballgame on any given day either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I'll take my inch and run with it. If I keep reaching I might even end up as good as 30" below average 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 0z RGEM has a solid band of light snow along the front sunday morning. We certainly have a shot at seeing a nice little 1 to 2 inch snow event. Not a big deal, but I'll gladly take any accumulating snow that we can get. Especially since it looks like our last chance for awhile, with the pattern for late February into early March not looking good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 0z RGEM has a solid band of light snow along the front sunday morning. We certainly have a shot at seeing a nice little 1 to 2 inch snow event. Not a big deal, but I'll gladly take any accumulating snow that we can get. Especially since it looks like our last chance for awhile, with the pattern for late February into early March not looking good. and a daytime snow is an extra bonus-- on Superbowl Sunday! The last time we had that was in 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 3 hours ago, larrye said: Final outcome of WHAT storm? There never really was any model that with any consistency indicated anything beyond a few inches for the NY metro. There was never any solution that truly bombed out near or right inside the benchmark. At least for the storm last week, there were some consistent indications at this point (72 hours ahead of time) even though there were variations in the solutions. Look, technically, you're right. There's always a chance. You never know. But you never know if the Yankees are going to win a ballgame on any given day either. I know there won't be a big storm but I meant for those writing it off as at most an inch. There seem to be two variables at play (the frontal passage snow) and the coastal storm snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Maybe we can squeeze couple inches out of it. Disappointing as this looks to be our last chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Gfs running late, one message says run taking to long.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Threats over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 big ol' whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Threats over It's over as far as getting a significant storm, but a light event with the front is still on the table. GFS tonight gave us nothing, but several other models give us an inch or two. 0z Euro just came in with an inch for NYC and 2 inches a little south of the city. This certainly can become nothing, but a light accumulating snow sunday morning is also very possible. We continue to watch it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: It's over as far as getting a significant storm, but a light event with the front is still on the table. GFS tonight gave us nothing, but several other models give us an inch or two. 0z Euro just came in with an inch for NYC and 2 inches a little south of the city. This certainly can become nothing, but a light accumulating snow sunday morning is also very possible. We continue to watch it. any chance it could be an all day snow like let's say start at around 6 am and end at 6 pm? Snowing for 2-4 hours does nothing for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: any chance it could be an all day snow like let's say start at around 6 am and end at 6 pm? Snowing for 2-4 hours does nothing for me. If we get this frontal snow, it's looking like a late saturday night and sunday morning event. GGEM is showing the light snow lasting until midday. GGEM was the best looking 0z model tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 30 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: If we get this frontal snow, it's looking like a late saturday night and sunday morning event. GGEM is showing the light snow lasting until midday. GGEM was the best looking 0z model tonight. looking at the locals they depicted snow from around 6 am to about 3 pm. I'm on the south shore of Long Island so this area probably has the best chance of hitting the 2 inch mark depicted on the local snowfall forecast maps that were posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 7 hours ago, Jt17 said: big ol' whiff Wouldn’t even call it a “whiff”. I’d call it a strung out piece of crap that can’t get anything going which gets yanked out to sea. To me this is trending to another dusting to coating event from the front which we had 5-6 of this season and will be gone a few hours later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Maybe not a whiff, but reaching first base on an infield error or hit by pitch or dropped third strike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 54 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Wouldn’t even call it a “whiff”. I’d call it a strung out piece of crap that can’t get anything going which gets yanked out to sea. To me this is trending to another dusting to coating event from the front which we had 5-6 of this season and will be gone a few hours later. might even be white rain unless it's a night given the warm conditions of this week into Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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