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2/13 Light/Moderate Snowfall Nowcasting & Observations


Northof78
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52 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lol

This ain't Maine, snowman's reverse-weeinism religion is going to be right more often than wrong, just how it is in our area.

 

Plot twist: snowman loves snowstorms more than anyone and is simply trying to always reverse jinx them into existence

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35 minutes ago, romba said:

This ain't Maine, snowman's reverse-weeinism religion is going to be right more often than wrong, just how it is in our area.

 

Plot twist: snowman loves snowstorms more than anyone and is simply trying to always reverse jinx them into existence

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

A moderate event is now off the table. That ship has sailed

Good evening S19, romba. Regardless of precipitation preference, it must take a strong character and a steel set of Joey Chestnuts to give and receive that many weenies without flinching. As always …..

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Still some uncertainty re snow chances from late Sat night into
Sunday as low pressure passes well to the SE and the area falls
underneath or very close to upper jet and mid level
frontogenetic forcing. ECMWF, after trending farther south for a
couple of cycles, has come back a little NW, while other global
models are farther south/east. Forecast splits the difference,
with chance snow for the entire area during this time frame.
Liquid equivalent QPF forecast by the operational models is
mostly less than 1/10 inch throughout per GFS/Canadian, and
about 1/10 inch from NYC east per ECMWF and less NW. Meanwhile,
ensemble means suggest a little more QPF, with about 1/10 inch
from NYC north/west and 1-2 tenths for Long Island. SLR should
be fairly high though in the cold air mass, running between
12-15:1, so a 1-2 inch snowfall still seems quite possible, with
the higher amts to the east and south of NYC, possibly also in
the higher elevations inland.
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2 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

I didn't know the final outcome of a storm is decided 3 days out. 

Final outcome of WHAT storm? There never really was any model that with any consistency indicated anything beyond a few inches for the NY metro. There was never any solution that truly bombed out near or right inside the benchmark. At least for the storm last week, there were some consistent indications at this point (72 hours ahead of time) even though there were variations in the solutions.

Look, technically, you're right. There's always a chance. You never know. But you never know if the Yankees are going to win a ballgame on any given day either.

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0z RGEM has a solid band of light snow along the front sunday morning. We certainly have a shot at seeing a nice little 1 to 2 inch snow event. Not a big deal, but I'll gladly take any accumulating snow that we can get. Especially since it looks like our last chance for awhile, with the pattern for late February into early March not looking good.

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7 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

0z RGEM has a solid band of light snow along the front sunday morning. We certainly have a shot at seeing a nice little 1 to 2 inch snow event. Not a big deal, but I'll gladly take any accumulating snow that we can get. Especially since it looks like our last chance for awhile, with the pattern for late February into early March not looking good.

and a daytime snow is an extra bonus-- on Superbowl Sunday!  The last time we had that was in 2016.

 

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3 hours ago, larrye said:

Final outcome of WHAT storm? There never really was any model that with any consistency indicated anything beyond a few inches for the NY metro. There was never any solution that truly bombed out near or right inside the benchmark. At least for the storm last week, there were some consistent indications at this point (72 hours ahead of time) even though there were variations in the solutions.

Look, technically, you're right. There's always a chance. You never know. But you never know if the Yankees are going to win a ballgame on any given day either.

I know there won't be a big storm but I meant for those writing it off as at most an inch. There seem to be two variables at play (the frontal passage snow) and the coastal storm snow.  

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Threats over 

It's over as far as getting a significant storm, but a light event with the front is still on the table. GFS tonight gave us nothing, but several other models give us an inch or two. 0z Euro just came in with an inch for NYC and 2 inches a little south of the city. This certainly can become nothing, but a light accumulating snow sunday morning is also very possible. We continue to watch it.

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It's over as far as getting a significant storm, but a light event with the front is still on the table. GFS tonight gave us nothing, but several other models give us an inch or two. 0z Euro just came in with an inch for NYC and 2 inches a little south of the city. This certainly can become nothing, but a light accumulating snow sunday morning is also very possible. We continue to watch it.

any chance it could be an all day snow like let's say start at around 6 am and end at 6 pm?  Snowing for 2-4 hours does nothing for me.

 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

any chance it could be an all day snow like let's say start at around 6 am and end at 6 pm?  Snowing for 2-4 hours does nothing for me.

 

If we get this frontal snow, it's looking like a late saturday night and sunday morning event. GGEM is showing the light snow lasting until midday. GGEM was the best looking 0z model tonight.

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30 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

If we get this frontal snow, it's looking like a late saturday night and sunday morning event. GGEM is showing the light snow lasting until midday. GGEM was the best looking 0z model tonight.

looking at the locals they depicted snow from around 6 am to about 3 pm. I'm on the south shore of Long Island so this area probably has the best chance of hitting the 2 inch mark depicted on the local snowfall forecast maps that were posted.

 

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7 hours ago, Jt17 said:

big ol' whiff

Wouldn’t even call it a “whiff”. I’d call it a strung out piece of crap that can’t get anything going which gets yanked out to sea. To me this is trending to another dusting to coating event from the front which we had 5-6 of this season and will be gone a few hours later. 

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54 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Wouldn’t even call it a “whiff”. I’d call it a strung out piece of crap that can’t get anything going which gets yanked out to sea. To me this is trending to another dusting to coating event from the front which we had 5-6 of this season and will be gone a few hours later. 

might even be white rain unless it's a night given the warm conditions of this week into Saturday

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