LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 47 minutes ago, romba said: I guess I misunderstood it, thought the conclusion was there was less data but the forecasting impact was minimal… well according to the research there's a difference in longer lead times vs shorter lead times, less conventional data means lower skill scores in the mid range and longer 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 51 minutes ago, romba said: I guess I misunderstood it, thought the conclusion was there was less data but the forecasting impact was minimal… https://ams.confex.com/ams/27WAF23NWP/webprogram/Handout/Paper273676/GFS4cycle_2015_NWP_Chicago_15A.pdf you might have not seen it before GFS 06Z and 18Z cycle are less skillful than the 00Z and 12Z cycles. • The difference in the NH is the largest • 06Z data count is always less (10~30%) than other cycles. • Even though the 18Z-cycle forecast score is worse than that of the 00Z cycle, 18Z conventional data count is not less than 00Z data count! 18Z has the same amount of Aircraft data as the 00Z does, but has worse forecast skill scores. • 12Z has less Aircraft data than 00Z, but has similar forecast skill scores to 00Z. • Difference in Aircraft data cannot explain forecast skill differences between 00Z/12Z and 06Z/18Z cycles. There is no difference in satellite data count among the four cycles. • 18Z and 00Z have the same amount of conventional data, but 18Z has worse forecast skills than 00Z. On the other hand, 12Z has less conventional data than 00Z, but 12Z and 00Z have similar forecast skills. • 06Z and 18Z cycles have 10 to 20 times less land rawinsonde observations than the 00Z and 12Z cycles. Is the lack of RAOBS responsible for the lower forecast scores of the 06Z and 18Z cycles? More investigation is required to understand its impact The forecast skills of GFS 06Z and 18Z cycles are not as good as that of the 00Z and 12Z cycles. (based on the rest of the paper it indicates that these factors take effect later on in the forecast period) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 ECMWF looks better. NS is digging more and the trough is more held back 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 No weather updates for 3 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Cuz rumors has it icon was nice At 18z lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 0Z GFS a little better than 18Z but not too exciting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 0Z GFS a little better than 18Z but not too exciting. 0z GFS and GGEM both showing a light snowfall for sunday. A 1 to 3 inch type of event. I would certainly take it, but hopefully it'll trend towards being a more moderate event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Euro, total miss like the UKMET 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: Euro, total miss like the UKMET Why do you like trolling? This storm is on life support but you never post during winter storms. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I want this run back 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I want this run back Dont we all lol 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Yeah, would have to see some big improvements today or we’ll be lucky to get an inch or two and call it a day. With how things are looking the rest of the month; yeah, bit of a downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 This threat, much like this thread, is on life support. Some of us got a nice storm with the last one but a pretty lame winter imby this season, highlights of a few 4-6ers doesn't cut it for me. Ready for blooming flowers, sunshine and t-shirt hikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I scored mightily on 1/29 here in Ocean Co NJ, but the warmup and protracted frontal stall rain event absolutely wrecked my snowpack. We could’ve held onto it for another week for sure but it just wasn’t to be. I liked the cold in January and we had some decent snow events, but it wasn’t equitable for everyone and it’s looking like that was but a brief reprieve in an overall crappy winter. I do get people liking warmth, but still in winter it’s hard for me to cheer it on. It does nothing but remind me of the path we’re on in an acutely warming planet. Who knows how much longer winter will even be winter here, so it’s tough for me to appreciate any warmth Dec through early March. It just reminds me of what lies ahead. I appreciate the cold while we can still get it, with that said my proclivities are for cold anyway and I hate being hot and sweaty. There is absolutely nothing better than hiking in winter through snow covered hills and forests. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Asleep at the wheel, lol...let's see waht the 12Z says shortly... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Asleep at the wheel, lol...let's see waht the 12Z says shortly... And no...way less precip/snow at 12Z, although a stronger looking coastal forms later in the 12Z NAM run, but might be too far offshore...still, there's potential for a minor to moderate event, I think... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: And no...way less precip/snow at 12Z, although a stronger looking coastal forms later in the 12Z NAM run, but might be too far offshore...still, there's potential for a minor to moderate event, I think... Coastal was further west on this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Coastal was further west on this run Yes, but it was mostly far less precip causing less snow: 0.2" vs. up to 0.7" at 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 12Z suite (every model; Euro still to come) has been horrible for snow for the big cities/95 corridor: at best maybe an inch in some snow showers (and 1-2" at the coast) and at worst nada, with that inch just along the coast and maybe not even there. NBM seems to capture this well... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 00z 12z (so far) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, RU848789 said: 12Z suite (every model; Euro still to come) has been horrible for snow for the big cities/95 corridor: at best maybe an inch in some snow showers (and 1-2" at the coast) and at worst nada, with that inch just along the coast and maybe not even there. NBM seems to capture this well... I had some minor interest in this a few days ago but it’s getting to be put up or shut up time and shut up is winning. Same issues we’ve been having all season-too progressive, +AO not allowing the flow to slow down and consolidate the trough/allow it to sharpen, strung out crap southern stream wave, northern stream diving in but not in time. I give it a 5-10% chance of it evolving back to somewhat interesting but odds are against it. “Interesting”=more than a 1-3” type event and even that’s probably just for the coast. If it’s another brief coating snow shower event that’s gone a few hours later I couldn’t care less anymore. Bring on spring then. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 12z Euro was a little better. A little accumulating light snow sunday morning. It gets about an inch up to NYC with a couple inches for central and southern NJ. The hope of seeing a moderate event is fading, but hopefully we can at least pull off a light event. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: I had some minor interest in this a few days ago but it’s getting to be put up or shut up time and shut up is winning. Same issues we’ve been having all season-too progressive, +AO not allowing the flow to slow down and consolidate the trough/allow it to sharpen, strung out crap southern stream wave, northern stream diving in but not in time. I give it a 5-10% chance of it evolving back to somewhat interesting but odds are against it. “Interesting”=more than a 1-3” type event and even that’s probably just for the coast. If it’s another brief coating snow shower event that’s gone a few hours later I couldn’t care less anymore. Bring on spring then. We had the -AO in December and that did no good, this whole winter has been a tragedy outside of a couple of days in January. Ironic thing is if you live in Atlantic City you've had a great winter lol. Even DC and Baltimore did well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro was a little better. A little accumulating light snow sunday morning. It gets about an inch up to NYC with a couple inches for central and southern NJ. The hope of seeing a moderate event is fading, but hopefully we can at least pull off a light event. You can see a random minor event in any kind of pattern pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro was a little better. A little accumulating light snow sunday morning. It gets about an inch up to NYC with a couple inches for central and southern NJ. The hope of seeing a moderate event is fading, but hopefully we can at least pull off a light event. white rain/cartopper if its only an inch sunday during the day. Warm temps today through Saturday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I close my snow eyes in mid April.. I might not see anything but I’m ready… 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: white rain/cartopper if its only an inch sunday during the day. Warm temps today through Saturday... This is an isolated inch event at best, maybe, for some areas, most won’t even see that. All the 12z model runs (minus the horrible ICON) were less than an inch total, some barely a dusting/coating 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is an isolated inch event at best, maybe, for some areas, most won’t even see that. All the 12z model runs (minus the horrible ICON) were less than an inch total, some barely a dusting/coating If this is the result we’ll get. I’d rather have mostly sunny skies and move on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This is an isolated inch event at best, maybe, for some areas, most won’t even see that. All the 12z model runs (minus the horrible ICON) were less than an inch total, some barely a dusting/coating Final solution? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Final solution? A moderate event is now off the table. That ship has sailed 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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