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2/13 Light/Moderate Snowfall Nowcasting & Observations


Northof78
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22 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Snowman, what part of the county are you in because In my neck of the woods,,,,,,the roads are white and the plows and salt spreaders are out and we have close to 3 inches,,,,,that said don't sweat it brother as "even Derek Jeter had a bad day now and then " :thumbsup:

I live in Sloatsburg. All the plow guys had to do was salt there isn’t enough snow to plow and it’s just about over here, just flurries now. Slightly over an inch on the grass all roads black

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15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I'm seeing 4 and 5 inch totals from Warren Co. NJ and parts of EPA. Nice! I guess the good banding was to the west overnight?

5” new this morning here in Bethlehem Twp.  The other poster in Macungie measured about the same a little earlier. The first three hours of the event was the most intense with the banding resulting in 4” during that period.

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A few notes: My driveway 3", except parts are melted (no treatment) 26F.  As I see it: snowfall as measured officially is invaluable  but dependent on temps regarding impact. I'm 27F and melting on driveway is slowly increasing and have not yet cleared.

This morning prior to solar,  sticks to all untreated at at or below 33F, but at varying degrees of melt dependent on ground temp and rate of fall.

After 9A: going to be tough to accumulate where cleared at temps 28F or greater, except when vsby below 1Mi.  

Weather Advisories need impact segmented to solar insolation at temps above 27F.  People need to get to work and businesses need to continue viable.  So methodology can be developed to limit impacts. As it is, the NWS WSSI has it...MINIMAL impact to travel. The usual wet roads, spray and vsby limitations requiring even greater defensive driving vigilance.

I did see some comments about cleaning the new snow covered cars so their technologies are not blinded by snow accretion to the sensors. That's a very very good point. Plus it's illegal in NJ to ride with snow on the car roof. 

 

Where this snow board accumulation gets tricky is trees/wires at 30-33F where if 6" can occur, braches-wires start breaking.  

So the Advisory is a bit of perception on impact, though board criteria are the driver. 

Watch what happens today, vs this eve-tonight. At sundown, could have impressive icing if snow showers occur here and there in our subforum as I expect with further 1/2" big flake deposits in 30-60 minutes. (no solar and it's chilling without solar). 

Can discuss more on NJWO zoom March 10 7PM at which time can demo use of tools...unsure if you can get on but that will happen. I am putting in a request.

Regarding modeling yesterday: I know the NAM and HRRR had this, as the RGEM/GGEM to a lesser extent.  The NAM had run to run problems and so you had to switch off to what made sense but there was little question that 700 MB FGEN and banding were a potential problem. The Global models missed the northward extent. Op GFS has a cold south bias again and again and again. EC not much better but somewhat. 

Attached 12z/12 ..  48 hour Kuchera snowfall guidance for a look.  I think the Kuchera smoothing is limited on some of this modeling but the idea is there. 

 

Blend of Models 

EC

GFS

RGEM

NAM 

Screen Shot 2022-02-12 at 6.30.38 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-02-13 at 8.39.26 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-02-13 at 8.39.57 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-02-13 at 8.40.39 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-02-13 at 8.42.17 AM.png

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41 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I live in Sloatsburg. All the plow guys had to do was salt there isn’t enough snow to plow and it’s just about over here, just flurries now. Slightly over an inch on the grass all roads black

Funny how everybody else is reporting 2-3-4 inches and you are reporting 1. I'll be driving down to Rockland later to see family. Something tells me they will have more than 1. Maybe you should do a George Costanza and do the opposite from now on when you forecast. 

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7 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Funny how everybody else is reporting 2-3-4 inches and you are reporting 1. I'll be driving down to Rockland later to see family. Something tells me they will have more than 1. Maybe you should do a George Costanza and do the opposite from now on when you forecast. 

Yep, exactly why I asked for pics. Every other report is higher than his...shocker

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10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Funny how everybody else is reporting 2-3-4 inches and you are reporting 1. I'll be driving down to Rockland later to see family. Something tells me they will have more than 1. Maybe you should do a George Costanza and do the opposite from now on when you forecast. 

i have a couple of friends who live in Suffern and they have about 3” of snow

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