Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

2/13 Light/Moderate Snowfall Nowcasting & Observations


Northof78
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

This has been very accurate all season.

 

It has a tendency if temps are marginal to overdo things...in this event I feel we are just below the safe threshold based on T/Td wetbulb that most places should be cold enough but during the day we may lose some to sun angle 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

 

It has a tendency if temps are marginal to overdo things...in this event I feel we are just below the safe threshold based on T/Td wetbulb that most places should be cold enough but during the day we may lose some to sun angle 

If most in NYC somehow get 2” from this I’d consider it a huge win. My thought for NYC is car topper to the 2” in Bayside/Whitestone. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If most in NYC somehow get 2” from this I’d consider it a huge win. My thought for NYC is car topper to the 2” in Bayside/Whitestone. 

Car topper? It's going to be cold enough to stick everywhere. I don't get why everyone thinks it will not.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Car topper? It's going to be cold enough to stick everywhere. I don't get why everyone thinks it will not.

Hard for me to think of any recent event where we’re waiting as temps are in the 40s (60 today) for it to cool enough as precip is starting up for good snow accumulation especially in the city. Hopefully this is the needle in the haystack where it’s wrong. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It could happen if moderate to heavy snow can train over the city for sure, but the short range models seem to be focusing west of I-95 for that where it’ll also be a few degrees colder. Snow maps show what they do but don’t be too disappointed if they don’t pan out for the city and where I am in Long Beach. My house in Huntington Station where it’ll be colder might get the few inches for sure. I want the good surprise as much as anyone but I’m just never big on these wait on the cold air to come in for a weak system like this. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Where I am in Long Beach and for the city I’m not expecting much accums wise, would be surprised to have more than 1-2”. Temps seem borderline as much of the snow is falling. 32-33 with light snow won’t cut it outside of car tops and grass and even that might be only when it comes down moderate. But the north shore and places where it can cool off to 30 can do a good bit better. N NJ where models are focusing on more might get a few inches. 

funny the south shore was supposed to do the best, what happened, is this a coastal hugger now lol

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why doesnt anyone post the full runs anymore it looks like eastern long island wont even get any snow on this

 

That's was the full run on pivotal, they're 18 hours for hrrr and like I said earlier to somebody else the final totals won't be as west oriented as these look since it would still be snowing past this. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

funny the south shore was supposed to do the best, what happened, is this a coastal hugger now lol

 

Has nothing to do with the low track, it's still a sheared out POS in general. It's about where the frontogenesis banding we're seeing set up now ends up and pivots as well as how fast the cold can get in. There are some good jet dynamics coming in to help out the banding/lifting (part of the sheared POS evolution as it won't collaborate with the well out to sea low) but I have a winners/losers sense of how this turns out not to mention the 60F most of us saw today which means light rates will stick to cold surfaces only when air temps are 32 or over. Heavy rates will help drop the temps too.

Hopefully this time tomorrow after the Bengals pull off the win we all have a wintry outcome. But many setups like this fail especially near the city.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Boom. Snow just started here and it came in hard as all snow.  Already a dusting.  Not a coating, mind you as the temperature is 38 and the snow is melting pretty quickly, but definitely a dusting on the grass and tables.  Melting fast, but sticking a little faster.

 

Boom says it well out here too.  Snow started about 40 minutes ago here.  Already an inch on the ground.  Big time fluff factor with this one. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The idea of quickly wet bulbing close to freezing isn't working out here.  Temp is falling slowly;.down about 1.3 degrees in the first 20 minutes of light to possibly moderate snow (I didn't go out to confirm visibility).  37° now and snow has lightened.  The "dusting" is melting.  Radar looks good though and slow temperature drop will get it done soon enough...just not immediately.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...