wdrag Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 5 hours ago, RU848789 said: Agree with everything, except for one caveat. Remember, if we get decent rates before 8 am, which is forecast, we'll get some accumulation on untreated paved surfaces and once snow gains a foothold on the paved surface, subsequent snow is falling on high albedo snow at 32F, where it will accumulate much easier than on actual blacktop. I'm ok on accumulations before 9A but after that, if vsby is not 1 mi or less, my experience says we melt alot of this as snow will have been cleared by then. It's the higher snowfall rates during the daylight that is the slush developer at 28F. Also, we clear our boards every 6 hrs. So I'm presuming snow begins up here around 130A in nw NJ. Board clears around 830A-9A... might be a somewhat slower melting accumulate thereafter up here, even at 25F. Saw model temps at Noon just barely 29F-31F I95. If its snowing 1/2" hr then impact. Otherwise to me impact is vsby - spray and defensive driving. To me the high percentage of low daily traffic problems on Sunday are the hills of nw NJ/se NYS into hilly CT where it will be colder (barring an unlikely but still small chance of general 5" snowfall Philly to NYC). NAM Banding favors something like ABE-IJD axis. It's only a single member model so it could slip south in reality. Blend the models. I think the first hour or two around 09z in Sussex County NJ will be 1/2-1"/hr. Also still pretty warm as this is written 40 at 757Pm here so I95 has to lose snow to melting at 5AM unless it too goes 1/2-1"hr to start at that time. Of additional interest to me is the lift in the dendritic growth zone that slips to about 5000-6000 ft at sunrise Monday. Moisture is lacking but might be interesting sizable snowflakes in scattered snow showers with the primary trough crossing the region for the Monday morning commute. The upshot: it snows, it accumulates with snowfall rates and surface temps governing accums on snow boards, pavements. Let's check pavements at air temps 29F and greater 1mi vsby after 9A for accums. We probably need to factor temps and solar insolation impact on roads at various times of daylight to assist impact products. Enjoy what does occur. 758P/12 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Still snowing 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Down to 37. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzLuv Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 44 degrees here. Gave the cars the first good wash since probably Nov. It was near 60 degrees this afternoon with brine trucks running on the major roads. A bit of a peculiar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Still snowing So the ending time is getting later now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, wdrag said: I'm ok on accumulations before 9A but after that, if vsby is not 1 mi or less, my experience says we melt alot of this as snow will have been cleared by then. It's the higher snowfall rates during the daylight that is the slush developer at 28F. Also, we clear our boards every 6 hrs. So I'm presuming snow begins up here around 130A in nw NJ. Board clears around 830A-9A... might be a somewhat slower melting accumulate thereafter up here, even at 25F. Saw model temps at Noon just barely 29F-31F I95. If its snowing 1/2" hr then impact. Otherwise to me impact is vsby - spray and defensive driving. To me the high percentage of low daily traffic problems on Sunday are the hills of nw NJ/se NYS into hilly CT where it will be colder (barring an unlikely but still small chance of general 5" snowfall Philly to NYC). NAM Banding favors something like ABE-IJD axis. It's only a single member model so it could slip south in reality. Blend the models. I think the first hour or two around 09z in Sussex County NJ will be 1/2-1"/hr. Also still pretty warm as this is written 40 at 757Pm here so I95 has to lose snow to melting at 5AM unless it too goes 1/2-1"hr to start at that time. Of additional interest to me is the lift in the dendritic growth zone that slips to about 5000-6000 ft at sunrise Monday. Moisture is lacking but might be interesting sizable snowflakes in scattered snow showers with the primary trough crossing the region for the Monday morning commute. The upshot: it snows, it accumulates with snowfall rates and surface temps governing accums on snow boards, pavements. Let's check pavements at air temps 29F and greater 1mi vsby after 9A for accums. We probably need to factor temps and solar insolation impact on roads at various times of daylight to assist impact products. Enjoy what does occur. 758P/12 Day time snowfall is the best, I find night time snows to be useless because I can't really see it falling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: So the ending time is getting later now? Might not be till late afternoon/early evening 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 10 minutes ago, Northof78 said: Might not be till late afternoon/early evening Nice, if it ended around 5 PM that'd be perfect I love all day snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 0z HRRR continues to ramp up amounts. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 New NAM snows till Super Bowl starts 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Still snowing Not a fan of how it’s favoring NJ more and more but they deserve a nice snow event. Hopefully this can work areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not a fan of how it’s favoring NJ more and more but they deserve a nice snow event. Hopefully this can work areawide. I mean if it works for them it'll work for us too, it's going to last longer and extend westward which is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Not a fan of how it’s favoring NJ more and more but they deserve a nice snow event. Hopefully this can work areawide. I think the fact that it's still snowing when this run ends explains why east hasn't filled out as much as west. It seems like it will be a pretty wide swath of relatively similar totals area wide. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Jt17 said: I think the fact that it's still snowing when this run ends explains why east hasn't filled out as much as west. It seems like it will be a pretty wide swath of relatively similar totals area wide. I noticed the thread title went from light to light to moderate lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Nws met days advisories might need to be issued for ny areas if amounts keep going up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Just now, LibertyBell said: I noticed the thread title went from light to light to moderate lol Would be nice to get another 2-4 inches area wide. This winter hasn't been as doomsday as the weenies make it out to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Can't believe how fast the temps actually fell. So far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Surprised a WWA hasn't been issued for NYC, etc. Weather Channel app still has no accumulation for Queens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 minute ago, RDRY said: Surprised a WWA hasn't been issued for NYC, etc. Weather Channel app still has no accumulation for Queens. Nws met I know says they likely will later tonight/ tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 HRRR 01z (still snowing): 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Nws met I know says they likely will later tonight/ tomorrow morning. Really don't want my kid driving his dodge avenger into the Bronx tomorrow morning.....hoping the class will be canceled but no one is paying attention to this event it seems. We went from an inch over by 10 am to several inches and possibly later in the day. I mean c'mon....it's not a big storm but enough to cause issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Really don't want my kid driving his dodge avenger into the Bronx tomorrow morning.....hoping the class will be canceled but no one is paying attention to this event it seems. We went from an inch over by 10 am to several inches and possibly later in the day. I mean c'mon....it's not a big storm but enough to cause issues. Nyc roads should be fine they usually are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 38 here. Rather intrigued. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Low hopes for the immediate coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 35/23 here expecting 2-3” up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Low hopes for the immediate coast Uh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Low hopes for the immediate coast Where I am in Long Beach and for the city I’m not expecting much accums wise, would be surprised to have more than 1-2”. Temps seem borderline as much of the snow is falling. 32-33 with light snow won’t cut it outside of car tops and grass and even that might be only when it comes down moderate. But the north shore and places where it can cool off to 30 can do a good bit better. N NJ where models are focusing on more might get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 RGEM looks as if it's bumping up amounts too. Snow map isn't out yet, but the run looked more impressive on the color loop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 This is looking quite potent and slow moving on radar at the moment... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 after a high of 59. down to 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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