Northof78 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Most 12z Models now have at least a notable winter storm hitting the area on 2/13-2/14. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 CMC just confirms this will be a solid storm. It was way too far west with the last snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: CMC just confirms this will be a solid storm. It was way too far west with the last snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: CMC just confirms this will be a solid storm. It was way too far west with the last snow event. I question this outcome: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 1 minute ago, NEG NAO said: I question this outcome: Me too. Especially with that high right up top 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Well the euro is nothing like the gfs or cmc. Flat an ots 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 H5 looked good. Bot translating to the surface tho 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 who is jim cantore??? 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, snowman19 said: It was an explosive blizzard at H5 right? Just nothing at all at the surface huh. It’s probably just convective feedback Versus 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 If Euro/CMC meet in the middle we'd have an nice storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Models still trying to figure this out. I don't think the end result will be like either the CMC or Euro, somewhere in between possibly. I could see a scenario where coast gets 4-8 and N and W 1-3, something like that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Models still trying to figure this out. I don't think the end result will be like either the CMC or Euro, somewhere in between possibly. I could see a scenario where coast gets 4-8 and N and W 1-3, something like that. what is your definition of "coast" and "N and W" ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 32 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: H5 looked good. Bot translating to the surface tho Yep 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Just now, NEG NAO said: what is your definition of "coast" and "N and W" ?? Coast being NYC Metro and Long Island in general, and by N and W I mean 30+ miles from NYC. I just think this may be a little too far east to give best snows N and W just like a few others this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Models still trying to figure this out. I don't think the end result will be like either the CMC or Euro, somewhere in between possibly. I could see a scenario where coast gets 4-8 and N and W 1-3, something like that. BTW the 12z UKMET showed a 1 to 2 inch snowfall. Yeah it's quite a model spread right now. Euro barely brushes us while GGEM is too ampted and rain. GFS in between, showing a significant snow event. Hopefully we will see an in between scenario as you mentioned. Hopefully we'll have a good idea by friday. Always seems to take awhile for the models to agree. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: what is your definition of "coast" and "N and W" ?? If you used nyc as the middle, nyc east is south of North and West areas. Basically it's, anything north of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 And NJ shore down through Ocean County. We mirror NYC weather (with respect to nor’easters) more often than Philly, with the exception of a N/S snow/rain transition line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 26 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Breaking it up as nyc north, nyc south, and nyc east makes it far simpler/ easier to remember. Plus it's the dumbed down definition/ version for those confused. True. To make a technical point, your part of the Island is pretty close to the same latitude as Mt Kisco. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon starting HH off on the right foot I see lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 58 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: True. To make a technical point, your part of the Island is pretty close to the same latitude as Mt Kisco. Yeah but we don't have anywhere near the maritime influence up here unless the wind is just right. I do see quite a bit on an ESE wind but I think a lot of that is due to being on the eastern aspect of the lower Taconics, I'll also be affected by backdoor fronts a lot more than they are 10 miles west of me.. If the prevailing winds are W, NW or NE my weather will be more continental than coastal. I'm ~10 miles north of Mt Kisco and a few hundred feet up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 And the GFS caves to the Euro….. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 I don't like that map, I think I'll ignore it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: And the GFS caves to the Euro….. One run is not a cave. SMH 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: One run is not a cave. SMH Agree an 18z run of the gfs is not going to drastically alter this. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 Don’t worry the NAM will come through and show 70 inches soon while the GFS swings the storm out to Iceland and the Euro cuts it inland. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: One run is not a cave. SMH True, but def not what you want either. Saving grace is it’s the 18z run which doesn’t have as much data as 0 and 12, though someone posted some research during the last threat which shows that less doesn’t affect forecasting ability. Wonder if no data would lead to similar forecasting ability… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 29 minutes ago, romba said: True, but def not what you want either. Saving grace is it’s the 18z run which doesn’t have as much data as 0 and 12, though someone posted some research during the last threat which shows that less doesn’t affect forecasting ability. Wonder if no data would lead to similar forecasting ability… No it's been proven by research Yang did that the 6z and 18z are significantly worse in the NH at longer lead times 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 9, 2022 Share Posted February 9, 2022 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: anyone who takes 6z or 18z runs of the GFS seriously has no clue how low the verification scores of those runs are, I posted a whole PDF about those a week ago. I guess I misunderstood it, thought the conclusion was there was less data but the forecasting impact was minimal… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now