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2/13 Light/Moderate Snowfall Nowcasting & Observations


Northof78
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2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Models still trying to figure this out. I don't think the end result will be like either the CMC or Euro, somewhere in between possibly. I could see a scenario where coast gets 4-8 and N and W 1-3, something like that. 

what is your definition of "coast" and "N and W" ??

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10 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Models still trying to figure this out. I don't think the end result will be like either the CMC or Euro, somewhere in between possibly. I could see a scenario where coast gets 4-8 and N and W 1-3, something like that. 

BTW the 12z UKMET showed a 1 to 2 inch snowfall. Yeah it's quite a model spread right now. Euro barely brushes us while GGEM is too ampted and rain. GFS in between, showing a significant snow event. Hopefully we will see an in between scenario as you mentioned. Hopefully we'll have a good idea by friday. Always seems to take awhile for the models to agree.

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26 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Breaking it up as nyc north,  nyc south,  and nyc east makes it far simpler/ easier to remember.  Plus it's the dumbed down definition/ version for those confused. 

True.  To make a technical point, your part of the Island is pretty close to the same latitude as Mt Kisco.

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58 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

True.  To make a technical point, your part of the Island is pretty close to the same latitude as Mt Kisco.

Yeah but we don't have anywhere near the maritime influence up here unless the wind is just right. I do see quite a bit on an ESE wind but I think a lot of that is due to being on the eastern aspect of the lower Taconics, I'll also be affected by backdoor fronts a lot more than they are 10 miles west of me.. If the prevailing winds are W, NW or NE my weather will be more continental than coastal. I'm ~10 miles north of Mt Kisco and a few hundred feet up.

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9 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

One run is not a cave. SMH 

True, but def not what you want either. Saving grace is it’s the 18z run which doesn’t have as much data as 0 and 12, though someone posted some research during the last threat which shows that less doesn’t affect forecasting ability. Wonder if no data would lead to similar forecasting ability…

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29 minutes ago, romba said:

True, but def not what you want either. Saving grace is it’s the 18z run which doesn’t have as much data as 0 and 12, though someone posted some research during the last threat which shows that less doesn’t affect forecasting ability. Wonder if no data would lead to similar forecasting ability…

No it's been proven by research Yang did that the 6z and 18z are significantly worse in the NH at longer lead times 

 

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16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

anyone who takes 6z or 18z runs of the GFS seriously has no clue how low the verification scores of those runs are, I posted a whole PDF about those a week ago.

 

I guess I misunderstood it, thought the conclusion was there was less data but the forecasting impact was minimal…

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