Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[78Blizzard]

It's time for the king to put up or shut up.

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Assuming we get a storm, are we talking sun night into Monday? Or more a Monday deal? 

right now its looking like a sun afternoon into overnight. That would mainly be a night storm. But at this range ~100-120hrs you can expect that to shift up to 6-12 hours in either direction. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Oh. Just hopped on to see that the CMC threw some blood in the tank for the malnourished inland peeps to lap up. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Assuming we get a storm, are we talking sun night into Monday? Or more a Monday deal? 

Sunday afternoon and night .. ending Monday am

[HoarfrostHubb]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its been a rough go on these, I followed them all year and has not performed that well really, GFS thermals are still skewed.

I take them with shakers of salt.  This was really the first time I looked at them in a while.  Can be fun if they hold

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I take them with shakers of salt.  This was really the first time I looked at them in a while.  Can be fun if they hold

That's true, But were going to need either the GFS or the Euro or both to really start hitting this fairly soon.

[dryslot]

12z GEFS didn't look all that appealing but it usually follows the OP so i'm not surprised.

[mreaves]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I take them with shakers of salt.  This was really the first time I looked at them in a while.  Can be fun if they hold

Probably could use these.  Please note she is carrying an umbrella and walking in a downpour.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEPS look pretty good.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GEFS didn't look all that appealing but it usually follows the OP so i'm not surprised.

It’s been a nice morning so far throwing us a bone but this needs a lot of work still considering we’re in the d4 zone already.

[Spanks45]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been a nice morning so far throwing us a bone but this needs a lot of work still considering we’re in the d4 zone already.

I am far from optimistic, especially with the way this season has gone....However, day 4 is an eternity this year, if we were bulls eyed 4 days out I still wouldn't expect much. Knowing that there is going to be some push westward from ridging off shore gives me pause, even a CMC solution is plausible. If there isn't much shift going into Friday, then I would assume this one is DOA

[HoarfrostHubb]

12z ICON gives most of SNE 3-6"       I'm sure we can lock that in 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been a nice morning so far throwing us a bone but this needs a lot of work still considering we’re in the d4 zone already.

To be fair, it’s closer to day 5… looks like bulk would be overnight Sunday into Monday 

[weathafella]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been a nice morning so far throwing us a bone but this needs a lot of work still considering we’re in the d4 zone already.

Think of the progress in the past 24 hours.  Tomorrow night at 0z should give much more clarity.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

To be fair, it’s closer to day 5… looks like bulk would be overnight Sunday into Monday 

No

[MJO812]

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 hours ago, Hazey said:

Maybe this bucks the trend. You know the previous storms that look great 3 weeks out and have 500 page threads only to fall apart at short range. Perhaps this will work in reverse. 

Was that your truck horn keeping me awake last night?

[Hazey]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Was that your truck horn keeping me awake last night?

Honk Honk!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Think of the progress in the past 24 hours.  Tomorrow night at 0z should give much more clarity.

I was giving it until the weenie nam range before shutting the door so 0z Friday is about right. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

20 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

To be fair, it’s closer to day 5… looks like bulk would be overnight Sunday into Monday 

I don't really look at snow start time or bulk of precip though but moreso how much time we have to make changes at h5 before the surface is off the coastline...which is around 96hr give or take. 

[dryslot]

Where's JC?

[George001]

16 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

That’s like a 200 miles shift west in one run, I buy it too with the ridge axis as far west as it is. This seems familiar…

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Where's JC?

Waiting for King JMA to come on board before he chimes in.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro  already significantly west with the northern stream than the 06z run at 72 hours

[Typhoon Tip]

boom

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

boom

Flat

[MJO812]

Euro looks much better at h5 but surface still sucks

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

boom

 

Just now, MJO812 said:

Flat

[dryslot]

12z Euro not going to cut it comparing to 0z, Its about the same result or even a tic east.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Dr no in the house