Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[dryslot]

12z GFS looks to be a tic or so better then 06z but not nuclear like UK.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

12 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not really. Been a great 21 years WOR.

Only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century (this year will prolly make 7).

I don't care much for the averages. Looks good on paper though. 

 

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks better for sure, but it won't go Reggie/Ukie just yet.

At least we are trending in the right direction with the southern vort not dragging it's face like it did with the sema blizzard. 

[dryslot]

GFS is just not good with EC systems, It's thermal profile was gawd awful with yesterdays too.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

12z GFS looks to be better the 06z but not nuclear like UK.

Yeeeah but ...  ( you know this ) the 06z was "better" than the 00z - I think there's a trend here that's gotten rather coherent. 

Here's the thing, we've seen these coastals this year trend, en masse, in then back out - trying sanity!  I mean, usually when the ballast of an entire f'ing ens system starts moving a given way, that's a signal? 

This years been somehow denying that conventionality it would seem.

Excluding the possibility that this is metaphysical more than physical ( LOL ),  I like the idea that the N/stream is becoming more coherently factored - I mean for storm enthusiasts. I really think this situation is going to need that, but it has work to do.  The UKMET is intriguing -

[MJO812]

Ukie looks really far offshore unless I'm dumb at reading maps

[ORH_wxman]

Definitely a much better GFS run....still need that northern stream to drop in a little further west, but that was a pretty nice step at 12z.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Ukie looks really far offshore unless I'm dumb at reading maps

0z was a head fake. 

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie looks really far offshore unless I'm dumb at reading maps

It probably is, that model never holds a solution...but then again most of the models don't seem to lock anything this year.

[bch2014]

Looks like 2-4 for the NYC-Boston corridor on the 12z GFS. More for South Jersey/Cape/SE MA.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

It probably is, that model never holds a solution...but then again most of the models don't seem to lock anything this year.

Yea. So we'll track without investing. 

[MJO812]

Cmc is rain

[CoastalWx]

Canadian looks pretty good on B and W charts.

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow... gives this nerd goose bumps to see that modeled in the NAM ( perhaps vindication.. ) 

Like Will and I were just discussing, Ray and even George.. In his George's defense, he did say this: "I am convinced that the models are underestimating how much the northern energy will dig, and that the models will continue to trend more and more amplified. ..."  - although he did outline "why," which might have helped his case - just sayn'

Anyway, I was discussing earlier this morning that the arc over the ridge in the west as sensitive in this, and that's precisely why this NAM solution digs so much power over the Dakotas - ... I mean more so than previous, in total.  You can see when toggling that the ridge is pushing more boldly into the Alaskan sector comparing 54 hour to previous, and that is dislodging more N/stream mechanics and sending it SSE. 

It is interesting the RGEM did this too...

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian looks pretty good on B and W charts.

Cmc is nice for new england but it's way too amped compared to any model

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is rain

Not for where it counts ... only NYC where it is deserved ..

hahah. J/K

No but I wouldn't worry about that relative to that solution   1, the CMC has a warm BL bias at this range;  2, no chance with a high that strong pearled out antecedent to the cyclone approaching from the SW, would it be that warm in NYC... 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is rain

I would take my chances with that look.

[CoastalWx]

Blows up to 989 near PWM. Must get tucked in.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not for where it counts ... only NYC where it is deserved ..

hahah. J/K

Ha lol

Cmc is usually too amped but what's stopping this from coming west ?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Blows up to 989 near PWM. Must get tucked in.

WOR approved 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I would take my chances with that look.

Yea, that this point, I'll take my chances with a large event tucking.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is rain

For NYC it may very well be. It’s gonna be 60 there Saturday. It wouldn’t stick on those torched out streets there anyway even if it was snow .

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ha lol

Cmc is usually too amped but what's stopping this from coming west ?

Actually ...I wrote more into that post - check it out ...

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

For NYC it may very well be. It’s gonna be 60 there Saturday. It wouldn’t stick on those torched out streets there anyway even if it was snow .

50s for many Saturday. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

That high looks better positioned than it was in the blizzard TBH.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

50s for many Saturday. 

Enjoy 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Enjoy 

We outdoors.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

This would be a nice one to work out. Could be a snow day Monday for state employees 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

We outdoors.

Tanning in shorts Saturday, snow blowing 16-24” Monday ?Hopefully this one is man snow and not that powder that will vaporize in the warm sun this time of year 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

50s on Saturday will have absolutely no effect on snow sticking Sunday night and Monday. Book it 

[dryslot]

Lot of snow on the 12z CMC.