Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[CoastalWx]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve noticed there’s still some very old habits that the Euro has to show something or it’s not likely to happen. The old reliance on the Euro still lingers. Old habits die hard . Folks have to get past that 

It still may win this, so I wouldn’t go all in yet. Like Will said, we’ll need all guidance to look better at 12z and not just a touch better.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It still may win this, so I wouldn’t go all in yet. Like Will said, we’ll need all guidance to look better at 12z and not just a touch better.

Well, the GFS looks decent as is - at least in EMA. Hopefully it wins this battle, unlike the last storm. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It still may win this, so I wouldn’t go all in yet. Like Will said, we’ll need all guidance to look better at 12z and not just a touch better.

It’s all alone though and has been steadily moving to GFS , GEFS, GGEM, GEPS, UKIE

It will be extremely surprising if it doesn’t show a hit at 12z

[40/70 Benchmark]

When the lone "ominous" model is flashing its tits, its a huge caution flag for anything major west of a KBOS to Will to Ginxy line.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Well, the GFS looks decent as is - at least in EMA. Hopefully it wins this battle, unlike the last storm. 

Most that matter need more than the gfs. We have a lot of work to do to track this over the cape, and that’s pretty much impossible.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

When the lone "ominous" model is flashing its tits, its a huge caution flag for anything major west of a KBOS to Will to Ginxy line.

Yup

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yup

Seen this sad story so many times over the past few years...I'd rather just jump to the warm up.

[WinterWolf]

When’s this big warm up? As of yesterday it wasn’t looking all that warm? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

When’s this big warm up? 

After Steve, Scott and TBlizz grab a quick 12" CJ.

[cleetussnow]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

When’s this big warm up? As of yesterday it wasn’t looking all that warm? 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

When’s this big warm up? As of yesterday it wasn’t looking all that warm? 

Couple of 50 degree days coming up I think. Maybe low 50s? Tomorrow and Saturday.

[CoastalWx]

I already saw Tip mentioning napes yesterday. Won't be long before he starts reminiscing about hanging outside college dorms in a PG-13 style essay.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Seen this sad story so many times over the past few years...I'd rather just jump to the warm up.

I’ll have an open mind with zero expectations but my wor folk hoping for a big snowfall need watch for the headfake.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just saw the 6z gfs… big time fade. Look how far away the main storm is.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I already saw Tip mentioning napes yesterday. Won't be long before he starts reminiscing about hanging outside college dorms in a PG-13 style essay.

Yea....noting that the glare of the increasing solar irradiance was abundantly discernible off the policeman's bald head,  as he handed handed me the "stay away" order...'alas, Christine had made her wishes clear-

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Just saw the 6z gfs… big time fade. Look how far away the main storm is.

It's a dual elongated low thing that brings the juice 

[dryslot]

What a snooze fest coming up.

[ORH_wxman]

84h NAM...but it looks pretty good at 12z.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

84h NAM...but it looks pretty good at 12z.

What do you make of that tight s/w coming into the northern plains? There is the s/w ahead of it, but I feel like the one coming into the plains could kick things off.

 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Just saw the 6z gfs… big time fade. Look how far away the main storm is.

There is cold erly flow way ahead of it. The depiction looks correct to me if that happened. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

What do you make of that tight s/w coming into the northern plains? There is the s/w ahead of it, but I feel like the one coming into the plains could kick things off.

 

I feel like that needs to phase in to get a larger event for most, or else it will be inhibiting factor.

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

When’s this big warm up? As of yesterday it wasn’t looking all that warm? 

It may be a "slow cook" arrival in the runs ( n'yuk n'yuk).

Seriously, .. the Pacific may be more poised to enter a large scale mode change than is presently being sensed out by the daily model renditions.  Time will tell if such a modulation will happen, or if it is a red herring.  

 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What do you make of that tight s/w coming into the northern plains? There is the s/w ahead of it, but I feel like the one coming into the plains could kick things off.

 

Yes, it's actually an explosive look....Ukie did that at 00z which is why it slammed all the way back to western NE.

[Hazey]

Maybe this bucks the trend. You know the previous storms that look great 3 weeks out and have 500 page threads only to fall apart at short range. Perhaps this will work in reverse. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, it's actually an explosive look....Ukie did that at 00z which is why it slammed all the way back to western NE.

Oh I didn't look at H5 on the Ukie, but yeah...I see that now. Nice.

[WinterWolf]

39 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Ya…I don’t think I’d be putting too much stock into an op run 9-10 days out. 

[MJO812]

[ORH_wxman]

Reggie would go nuclear if we could see another couple panels.

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie would go nuclear if we could see another couple panels.

 

Wow. You ain't kidding lol.

[Typhoon Tip]

Could be a last hurrah storm for this pattern ... regardless of what form and where.  Or perhaps last of the season, given to the lateness.  I mean there's likely to be a cyclogen processing SE to off the coast ... it's a matter of amplitude and position.

In a definitive era where hockey-stick climate change is real and happening, and we've been verifying in hard data, exceptional warm oddities to mid latitudes across the mid continent February and March's with increased frequency over the last 10 years ... if one is objective they should at minimum begin to wonder if it may be harder to return to winter in 2022, that it was in 1956, past the ides of February with strengthening constructive interfering  MJO wave over a La Nina footprint. Yikes! 

-PNA is gaining super synoptic support.  ... In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if this storm came back to at least moderately impact NYC-PWM, and while we are enjoying the d-drip we are also ignoring the 70F on the charts for 4-6 days later - we've been through that drill in the spring, early or not. 

Regarding this event:  Seems there is a 'race'  ... Changes are positioning on the starting line over the Pacific, but like unruly competitors ...they may be jumping the gun in the models, causing false starts and forced loading to bully into the west?  They could be rushing the -PNA, causing the ridge of the +PNA surge (presently occurring) in the foreground to dismantle too soon.  

Anyway, those really are starting to exert on the Pacific relay into western N/A ... in about 4 to 6 days.  That is when the ridge over western N/A, the one that surged a bit now and is/was modeled to bump east, needs to maintain it's +PNA -like structure in order for the transitively force the east coast trough depth...

Looking over all ens means I could... I suggest there is some sensitivity wrt to how much the N-stream can/will dive S through the Lakes, determined more than less on the N extent of the western N/A heights arcing into western Canada.  If that gets sent south, we may be in business for better capture.  I elaborated at this yesterday - I don't feel much has changed.  I think this next 1.5 days starting now on this 12z cycle ... through early Friday, will clarify that interactivity up there and what is ultimately delivered.  I give 50/50 for more or less, either way at this point.