Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[IowaStorm05]

32 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Upton thinks it's all going to melt.

 With record warmth today (highs in the
50s and 60s) ground temperatures remain well above freezing. In
addition, some of the 12z forecast guidance keeps temperatures
above freezing (33-35 degrees) during parts of the day Sunday.
While p-type is expected to be all snow, if these surface
temperatures do stay right around 32 or slightly above 32, we
may not see a lot of snow sticking to roads, and may be confined
to just the grassy surfaces.

Upton has urban heat megalopolis at the front of mind, you have to remember.

[BrianW]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

All about the rates…if it’s light snow then that thinking will prevail.  If it snows hard..it’ll stick/accumulate everywhere no matter what.  So they better hope it’s light snow rates. 

It's still almost 50 here. Its all melting. 

[DavisStraight]

1 minute ago, BrianW said:

It's still almost 50 here. Its all melting. 

Really? I'm at 35 and not too far away from you.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, BrianW said:

It's still almost 50 here. Its all melting. 

No it’s not. Pay attention and learn something.  Temps are gonna go down significantly overnight.  If you get the rates…it doesn’t matter what the temp is now. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

Really? I'm at 35 and not too far away from you.

Ya it’s 37 here…he thinks he lives in Miami. 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This works

I’d take that..4” here works fine with me too.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’d take that..4” here works fine with me too.

It may never snow in Greenfield again.    

[WinterWolf]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It may never snow in Greenfield again.    

Ahh Hippy…who knows what this does? Models can’t seem to agree again.  Been tough go in a lot of places outside of eastern areas of late, but you’re area has been hit especially hard. 

[SouthCoastMA]

looked like another nudge on the 0z RGEM

[BrianW]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No it’s not. Pay attention and learn something.  Temps are gonna go down significantly overnight.  If you get the rates…it doesn’t matter what the temp is now. 

Your right. It just dropped significantly to 48. 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

looked like another nudge on the 0z RGEM

Tick tick… some of these models are printing out borderline warning amounts now.

Maybe a snow day Monday after all?

[DavisStraight]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I’d take that..4” here works fine with me too.

Scott and Ginxy jack

[Sugarloaf1989]

35/24 here. NWS has 1.5", Crapuweather has 1", WU has 1/2" of an inch of snow.  Expecting a coating to 1" here.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

If you drew a line from Hartford to Newburyport I think anyone S & E of that has a shot at decent accumulating.  NW of that I would be cautious of virga based radar hallucinations. I expect only flurries here but even N Worcester Co. could be a nothing burger.

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Your right. It just dropped significantly to 48. 

 

I didn't realize you were on the coast, I was thinking near Hartford, colds coming though, soon.

MesoWest Surface Weather Maps (utah.edu)

[NeonPeon]

Some of the models show modest snow but over a long period of time, with some down time in between. That would tend to make actual effects fairly minimal impact.

Like, I could see getting 3 inches of snow but never really having much of anything on the road.

Plus there's no commute. I can see them expanding wwa west just a bit for that last pulse, esp given timing.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Your right. It just dropped significantly to 48. 

 

Here’s the point…and this is the only thing you need to know.  If you are snowing tomorrow, and it’s snowing hard/heavy, it will accumulate no matter if you’re 48 or 58 right now.  
 

If you are snowing tomorrow, and it’s crap snow growth, and light rates, then it won’t accumulate.  That’s it. That’s really all there is to it when it comes to that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Mark Rosenthal going big

“I think we get a moderate snowstorm in Boston....Starting early tomorrow morning and not really ending until late tomorrow night. My early thoughts are 3-6"+ form Boston to Worcester and 4-8"+ from Plymouth to Cape Cod. Bitter cold to follow late tomorrow night and Monday.”

We had some funny nicknames for him back in the 90’s

[Snowcrazed71]

29 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Your right. It just dropped significantly to 48. 

 

It does make sense. You are right near the water. I mentioned that when I got home at 4:30 it was still 47 here.... It is now 35. Your temps will drop. Just behind and also climo is a different animal where you are. 

[Connecticut Appleman]

We have the temperature but I fear once again the moisture will be lacking unless there is one more NW push.

[weathafella]

Gfs is pretty aggressive 

[Typhoon Tip]

Uptown never said it’s ALL going to melt. 
 

reading comprehension ftl 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs is 6+ in se Mass…. Some interesting runs for sure…

 

also has snow through midday Monday 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

We have the temperature but I fear once again the moisture will be lacking unless there is one more NW push.

This one is for EoR weenies.
My expectations are low because cold dry air is filtering in as we speak.  Sharp cutoff but I could see somewhere around Carver or Lakeville jacking with warning snows. 

[IowaStorm05]

This just keeps looking better and better. It is showing up to look like Jan 7 just like my hopes and intuition went for. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

This just keeps looking better and better. It is showing up to look like Jan 7 just like my hopes and intuition went for. 

Your area up through Taunton and towards Upper Cape look good!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Can this one pull off, the ever elusive, Newport jackpot? 

[Ginx snewx]

Nice omega now , unstable as well  Snow growth up to 550 mb saturate.  Should be excellent snow growth. Nice

[Snowcrazed71]

I'm sitting about 10 miles west/southwest of Harford. I'm hoping to be in that possible snow growth area tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

[NeonPeon]

13 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Can this one pull off, the ever elusive, Newport jackpot? 

No.