Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[SouthCoastMA]

RGEM looked decent - but I think the ceiling is capped at like 2-4" for far SE areas. Some models also hinting at one of the fraud five (inverted trough) close by

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

RGEM looked decent - but I think the ceiling is capped at like 2-4" for far SE areas. Some models also hinting at one of the fraud five (inverted trough) close by

I'd actually be surprised if you don't see at least a 1-2" snowfall...with a chance for advisory amounts down there. Back here, I'm thinking probably a C-1" type deal, but can't rule out a 2-3 incher yet if we bring this back west ever so slightly which is certainly still possible.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

RGEM looked decent - but I think the ceiling is capped at like 2-4" for far SE areas. Some models also hinting at one of the fraud five (inverted trough) close by

You might do fairly well (relatively speaking) down that way. I guess we watch for fronto bands and maybe edge of CCB here, but I'm not sold on that. Kind of frustrating, but oh well.

[ORH_wxman]

Happy hour NAM is actually pretty decent for CT over to SE MA...maybe 2-4" amounts in a stripe. Maybe even approaching 5-6" in SE MA.

[Hazey]

Happy hour NAM is actually pretty decent for CT over to SE MA...maybe 2-4" amounts in a stripe. Maybe even approaching 5-6" in SE MA.

It ain’t quite dead yet. Like horror movie.


#NovaScotiaStrong

[MJO812]

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Happy hour NAM is actually pretty decent for CT over to SE MA...maybe 2-4" amounts in a stripe. Maybe even approaching 5-6" in SE MA.

HRRR has a nice swath of 2-4” from SE NY up thru CT up to BOS

[weathafella]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Happy hour NAM is actually pretty decent for CT over to SE MA...maybe 2-4" amounts in a stripe. Maybe even approaching 5-6" in SE MA.

February 2016 redux with rescue inside 48?

[brooklynwx99]

a jet streak like that would mean business... could be some surprises in store if one of that strength verifies. would like to see this from other hi-res guidance

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

February 2016 redux with rescue inside 48?

Probably not, but we obviously did it 6 years ago....lol.

It really doesn't need to move that much to give BOS-PVD and SE areas a solid 4-7" type event. But the bigger issue is when you are this close to the event, you cannot afford any setbacks. If 00z just tickles back SE, then it's a nothing-burger or nuisance event.....or even the other 18z guidance if it doesn't tick NW like the NAM did.

[ORH_wxman]

ICON and Reggie both came NW too....ICON trying to give SE MA a legit snowstorm again....lol. So pretty clear trend on the 18z JV models....lets see if the varsity team is game.

[Damage In Tolland]

We may be heading towards WSW for most of SNE. Same deal as this past Monday . Last 48 hours it kept coming NW

[ORH_wxman]

For Jerry....this was less than 48 hours before the 2/5/16 event:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2016/20160203/WRF_18z/namloop.html

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2016/20160203/AVN_18z/avnloop.html

 

Prob one of the worst we've seen in recent years for that short of a lead time. Almost certainly not gonna happen this time, but another small nudge could make it a respectable advisory event and maybe something a little more for far SE areas.

[SouthCoastMA]

The key is that tug back as the first low escapes..and another low reinvigorates just as northern energy moves in. Does seem like another stretched out dual low situation.  

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For Jerry....this was less than 48 hours before the 2/5/16 event:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2016/20160203/WRF_18z/namloop.html

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2016/20160203/AVN_18z/avnloop.html

 

Prob one of the worst we've seen in recent years for that short of a lead time. Almost certainly not gonna happen this time, but another small nudge could make it a respectable advisory event and maybe something a little more for far SE areas.

Yikes!   
 

Kevin brought up Monday this week-it was too warm but that was a big short  term qpf bust.

[SouthCoastMA]

For the past couple days, the NAM and ICON have been showing better solutions to start the model cycles..before being shat on by the rest of the model suite. Good to see the RGEM on board this time. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This may get advisory snows up to NW Mass 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Lol… ICON is like 6-10 here 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Icon would most certainly work for a post super bowl snow day 

[CoastalWx]

GFS needs work, but NW too.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Gfs nothing like icon of Nam but it did make a decent jog NW

[weathafella]

And everyone has the secondary snow pulse Monday for eastern MA

[8611Blizz]

Wow on air mets will look pretty stupid if this turns from coatings to 3"-5".  Backpedal much?

[SouthCoastMA]

It's still 48 hours out..50-75 mile jogs NW isn't that hard - same for the other direction. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It's still 48 hours out..50-75 mile jogs NW isn't that hard - same for the other direction. 

Yeah it’s doable. The issue is you have to avoid the trend back east too when this close in. But if we can grab another couple 20 mile jogs NW, it gets a lot more interesting. 

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s doable. The issue is you have to avoid the trend back east too when this close in. But if we can grab another couple 20 mile jogs NW, it gets a lot more interesting. 

Monday came NW right to the end 

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, Hazey said:

It ain’t quite dead yet. Like horror movie.


#NovaScotiaStrong

You could be in the game for something really decent.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

February 2016 redux with rescue inside 48?

The superbowl storm? That was like 4-6 here

 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

For Jerry....this was less than 48 hours before the 2/5/16 event:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2016/20160203/WRF_18z/namloop.html

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2016/20160203/AVN_18z/avnloop.html

 

Prob one of the worst we've seen in recent years for that short of a lead time. Almost certainly not gonna happen this time, but another small nudge could make it a respectable advisory event and maybe something a little more for far SE areas.

That was the one in which the crane accident happened in NYC!  We had heavy snow for most of the morning.

 

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

The superbowl storm? That was like 4-6 here

 

No the 2016 event was a Friday