Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[SouthCoastMA]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thank god I didn't waste any time on this.

I had slight interest for a couple hours this morning..then it immediately trended to sh*t. Better than being strung along and getting the rug pulled at Day 4

[NeonPeon]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Lets see how awful the models will be with this storm.

There isn't a storm of any relevance, except on some models. The only reason you have introduced the narrative of "the storm" and instantiated it is because of your reading of these models. Irony.

It would be more accurate to say, "Let's confirm, yet again, how awful humans are with probabilistic thinking."

Still, its something to hold our desperate interest for at least a couple days. Unless  lest we continue bickering about who had to walk uphill both ways further in LESS snow than the other guy." Ok, that's wordy, but its a jumping off point.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM and Ukie are duds too....this one is in the ICU.

Poor George. This thread may not make it past two pages unless the icon and navy give some false hopes.

[Great Snow 1717]

16 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I'm holding my breath.  Do I dare ask? How's the Navy

About as bad as this Navy..

 

[George001]

This doesn’t look that bad, just need all the energy to consolidate. With the strong western ridge I don’t see why the northern energy would be that progressive.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

47 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM and Ukie are duds too....this one is in the ICU.

Can something that was never alive be in the icu?

[George001]

I don’t understand all the negativity with this storm, the upper air pattern looks good and we are really just a few small tweaks away from a big hit.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t understand all the negativity with this storm, the upper air pattern looks good and we are really just a few small tweaks away from a big hit.

I’ll take some of what he’s drinking / smoking 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t understand all the negativity with this storm, the upper air pattern looks good and we are really just a few small tweaks away from a big hit.

The storm is still possible, but it will take some significantly better changes. The fact that we are trending in a worse direction at D5 is a pretty big negative...you'd at least like to see the status quo at D5 and not trend worse.

 

GGEM actually liked a totally different system behind the 2/13-14 system...tries to get a Miller B going for 2/15....but GFS and Ukie weren't biting.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

I don’t understand all the negativity with this storm, the upper air pattern looks good and we are really just a few small tweaks away from a big hit.

We’ll until some modeling sees it…it doesn’t look like much at the moment. So that’s where the no-go is coming from George. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, George001 said:

This doesn’t look that bad, just need all the energy to consolidate. With the strong western ridge I don’t see why the northern energy would be that progressive.

Because the strong western ridge gets kicked by a system in the PNW.

[Damage In Tolland]

28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The storm is still possible, but it will take some significantly better changes. The fact that we are trending in a worse direction at D5 is a pretty big negative...you'd at least like to see the status quo at D5 and not trend worse.

 

GGEM actually liked a totally different system behind the 2/13-14 system...tries to get a Miller B going for 2/15....but GFS and Ukie weren't biting.

Don’t matter just don’t bite it?

[CoastalWx]

Throw the euro into the "not gonna happen" pile.

[weathafella]

Why was a thread started for a weak signal at best 6 days out?

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why was a thread started for a weak signal at best 6 days out?

Because George went wild.

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Throw the euro into the "not gonna happen" pile.

Good

Plenty of time for the models to shift west like yesterday's low

[WinterWolf]

Erase/delete this abortion. Anything that happens can be talked about in the February thread. 

[wx2fish]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The storm is still possible, but it will take some significantly better changes. The fact that we are trending in a worse direction at D5 is a pretty big negative...you'd at least like to see the status quo at D5 and not trend worse.

 

GGEM actually liked a totally different system behind the 2/13-14 system...tries to get a Miller B going for 2/15....but GFS and Ukie weren't biting.

Euro had a little more interest in that 2/15 system this run, but well ots

[ROOSTA]

DOA. Even before, way before it's arrival.
Have to like the enthusiasm. Start learning from mistakes, I guess. Instead of being critical, maybe posting less, reading more why not take the opportunity and give reasons of why or why not the event is a threat. Even with years of watching and learning the little nuances of long range is an acquired skill to which some never learn or recognize. (ME)        

[George001]

Euro trying for a Miller b

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Why was a thread started for a weak signal at best 6 days out?

Because the board weenie got a big weenie, This should be locked or even deleted, Just go start a March thread or April even, I blame wiz for starting a May thread in January for stimulating the weenies.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Euro had a little more interest in that 2/15 system this run, but well ots

That's a much better looking shortwave, but it gets screwed because of the 2/13-14 system being a bit too close....if the spacing was slightly better, the 2/15 shortwave would go nuts into a good Miller B.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a much better looking shortwave, but it gets screwed because of the 2/13-14 system being a bit too close....if the spacing was slightly better, the 2/15 shortwave would go nuts into a good Miller B.

Hopefully the 2/13-14 shortwave gets out faster and the 2/15 one is a little slower. I’m going to root for the Miller b, those are usually better here. EPS will be interesting.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That's a much better looking shortwave, but it gets screwed because of the 2/13-14 system being a bit too close....if the spacing was slightly better, the 2/15 shortwave would go nuts into a good Miller B.

Maybe I need to melt down at George and get another “not gonna happen” moment to make it work?

[Hazey]

Just change the tittle to 14-15 and system might still be in play.

[mahk_webstah]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe I need to melt down at George and get another “not gonna happen” moment to make it work?

That’s a special superpower you have. Must use it selectively.

[weathafella]

16 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Just change the tittle to 14-15 and system might still be in play.

The numbers 14-15 mean a lot to so many....

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Just change the tittle to 14-15 and system might still be in play.

What weenie symmetry lol 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What weenie symmetry lol 

Was right about now when the CJ started in that long duration event that year. I know you wanted to be reminded of that.

[Typhoon Tip]

Huh...  I think we're being a little harsh - George, sets himself up good and proper for excoriation ( heh ...wow -), but there's worth-while observation still out there re this.

But, the fact of the matter is, the general flow scaffold is still there.  This can still emerge.  

I don't personally know how to tell if that emergence will or won't take place... I would presently lean no - but that doesn't mean shit. One run looks better, I can see that happening just as well.  Like I outlined earlier, the critical window - for me - will be about 3.5/4 days from now, as the ridge 140 W repositions to 110 W..  That adjustment may send a correction toward more amplitude into the eastern CONUS when that happens - and can emerge in time.  Assuming the former does. But that much of it is higher confidence.  What happens on the other side of the ridge movement has some upside variability to it. 

That's the objective perspective from where I'm sitting - seeing as anyone gives a shit what I think. Lol...  That is the best I can offer George's ambition to getting us one step closer to ending the world in the 3rd Geological Snowball Earth