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Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential


George001
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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The blizzard last week had multiple runs of one model shows a hit. 

For the millionth time this winter you are setting yourself up for disappointment....it is sort of like Jets fans buying tickets to the super bowl that is being played on Sunday and then learning the Jets were eliminated from the playoffs last August...

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2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

For the millionth time this winter you are setting yourself up for disappointment....it is sort of like Jets fans buying tickets to the super bowl that is being played on Sunday and then learning the Jets were eliminated from the playoffs last August...

You mean it was a disappointment but at least it wasn't a blowtorch. 

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4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Appears to be an unfortunate timing error..that lead shortwave moving off the coast is too fast despite that digging northern stream. And I guess the northern stream isn't digging like it did at 12z yesterday. so meh

Yeah that first s/w kind of induces the low and then that low scoots northeast. That nrn stream digs plenty enough, but lead s/w messes that up. 
These things happen all the time, it’s just that with this winter.......it’s getting more scrutiny. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that first s/w kind of induces the low and then that low scoots northeast. That nrn stream digs plenty enough, but lead s/w messes that up. 
These things happen all the time, it’s just that with this winter.......it’s getting more scrutiny. 

It's also the kind of dynamic in which a place like DC or RIC often needs

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34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I suppose that’s still possible…

Yeah there will likely be a fronto band with this thing…SE areas favored for now. But unless we get back to sharpening up that southern stream again, the upside is something like 4-7” in a stripe. 
 

For the higher end scenarios to be back in play, we’ll want to see a big trend at 12z of sharpening up the southern vort and having it phase with northern stream. I’m not expecting that trend, but it’s what we would need. 

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