Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

29 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That looks like garbage, Everyone of those is weak sauce, It went east from 12z.

 

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought that was a lot better than 12z. The mean. 

Dryslot doing a little weed today?

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought that was a lot better than 12z. The mean. 

It was . Weeders GON’ weed 

 

[78Blizzard]

18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This could be one that hits SNE and exits ENE

That is how this is shaping up, imo.

[CoastalWx]

I mean it was still weak sauce, but I thought better. Anyways, we need to see some good improvements at 00z and not ticks.

[WinterWolf]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought that was a lot better than 12z. The mean. 

I thought so too, but then I was seeing some folks saying it was worse, so I was like, I guess I must not know what I’m looking at? 

Good to know I wasn’t hallucinating after all. That 500 mb that Brooklyn99 posted looked significantly better to me. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I thought so too, but then I was seeing some folks saying it was worse, so I was like, I guess I must not know what I’m looking at? 

Good to know I wasn’t hallucinating after all. That 500 mb that Brooklyn99 posted looked significantly better to me. 

Whatever the ticks were compared to 12z, weak lows way se of the bm won’t get it done and there are too many of them. Need big changes soon.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Whatever the ticks were compared to 12z, weak lows way se of the bm won’t get it done.

I’m talking about the 500 mb.  Let’s be real here, this is probably not gonna do much if the tenor of this season continues on into this system.
But the 500 mb/upper level has steadily improved last night, and all day for the most part. If that continues..the surface will respond accordingly. We all know that. So we see what happens tonight and tomorrow. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Whatever the ticks were compared to 12z, weak lows way se of the bm won’t get it done and there are too many of them. Need big changes soon.

It’s sort of anafrontal too. So despite the low offshore they’ll be a ribbon of snow behind the front. Naturally you’d want that to turn into a CCB 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s sort of anafrontal too. So despite the low offshore they’ll be a ribbon of snow behind the front. Naturally you’d want that to turn into a CCB 

Ah ok, makes sense. So now we’ll rely on ribbons hanging back from the analfront hoping they queef out a ccb. Good times.

[weathafella]

The big moves have to come nlt tomorrow evening at 0Z.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ah ok, makes sense. So now we’ll rely on ribbons hanging back from the analfront hoping they queef out a ccb. Good times.

No, lol. If a low were to develop along the front that would naturally turn into a blob of QPF moving in. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ah ok, makes sense. So now we’ll rely on ribbons hanging back from the analfront hoping they queef out a ccb. Good times.

C’mon Luke, I’m certainly with you on it probably being nothing much of anything.  This season hasn’t been good for us for sure.  But there have been big changes from 24 hrs ago at this time with this thing.  I really didn’t expect that to even happen. This does have some large scale features  going for it, and If it continues to steadily improve over the next day or even two, then we don’t need huge changes all at once being we are still 4 full days away.  

[CoastalWx]

NAM looked like it would go boom after hr 84. I don’t have a laptop to compare from 18z, but that nrn stream looked seemed potent.

[CoastalWx]

If I try to compare, still would like that stream of vorticity in front of it to have less space in between. 

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM looked like it would go boom after hr 84. I don’t have a laptop to compare from 18z, but that nrn stream looked seemed potent.

Uh ? Nam looks bad

[George001]

This looks really close to something big (12+). I don’t get how the surface can be so weak with this look at h5. It needs some work yeah but even as is I would think the surface low would end up stronger.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

This looks really close to something big (12+). I don’t get how the surface can be so weak with this look at h5. It needs some work yeah but even as is I would think the surface low would end up stronger.

George that’s 12z Euro. 

[George001]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

George that’s 12z Euro. 

Yeah 18z looked a little better, slower overall evolution with the northern branch farther west. But even the 12z euro which had a really weak surface reflection I thought looked good at h5.

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NAM looked like it would go boom after hr 84. I don’t have a laptop to compare from 18z, but that nrn stream looked seemed potent.

Northern stream was way west but the base of the front runner is pretty rounded. I do think that would eventually go boom though…too far west not to. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? Nam looks bad

Was today a day drinking holiday I didn’t know about? Holy smokes 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

C’mon Luke, I’m certainly with you on it probably being nothing much of anything.  This season hasn’t been good for us for sure.  But there have been big changes from 24 hrs ago at this time with this thing.  I really didn’t expect that to even happen. This does have some large scale features  going for it, and If it continues to steadily improve over the next day or even two, then we don’t need huge changes all at once being we are still 4 full days away.  

We’re searching through the corn fields  for improvements and while today was fun to see, it’s not enough. If we don’t keep steadily improving over the next 3-4 cycles starting tonight, I don’t see it happening JD. I hope I am wrong though.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? Nam looks bad

Hmmm, Ya got two very talented METS saying something totally opposite….what gives? 

[George001]

This does not look bad at all

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Was today a day drinking holiday I didn’t know about? Holy smokes 

Ant must be in the midst of running after a shoplifter in the alleys. It’s not bad at all. 

[CoastalWx]

The base needs to be a little sharper though. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The base needs to be a little sharper though. 

That’s what she says huh…

[WinterWolf]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We’re searching through the corn fields  for improvements and while today was fun to see, it’s not enough. If we don’t keep steadily improving over the next 3-4 cycles starting tonight, I don’t see it happening JD. I hope I am wrong though.

I wouldn’t say we’re searching for anything.  The improvement are there, and they were/are obvious. There’s plenty of time…NAM Improved again.  If this were happening Friday…then ya, we’d need monster moves. But we do have time with it being Sunday.
 

Personally, I’d rather see the steady improvement at H5 happening as they are, rather than the big eye candy at 4 days out, and then have it slowly deteriorate like last time. Let’s keep improving the upper levels…and then we see the results by tomorrow night into Friday at the surface. 

[MJO812]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

I wouldn’t say we’re searching for anything.  The improvement are there, and they were/are obvious. There’s plenty of time…NAM Improved again.  If this were happening Friday…then ya, we’d need monster moves. But we do have time with it being Sunday.
 

Personally, I’d rather see the steady improvement at H5 happening as they are, rather than the big eye candy at 4 days out, and then have it slowly deteriorate like last time. Let’s keep improving the upper levels…and then we see the results by tomorrow night into Friday at the surface. 

Agree 100.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

A solid 4-6” for almost everybody on that depiction…I’d take that at this point. But maybe we can amp this up even a bit more…