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Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

George001

By George001,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

It's like RAAAAAAAAAIINNNNN.........on your KU day It's the Greenland bloooooock, when it's already May, It's Tip's hadley celllll, with an big RNA..... And Ray smokes exhaust....it fig

CoastalWx
CoastalWx

I like boobs.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I couldn't care less at this point...the 00z run upside was a moderate event....this is way better even if it doesn't satisfy the queens at Day 4-5. It was a pretty big move for the euro.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 2/9/2022 at 10:13 PM, CoastalWx said:

Those two s/w's were further separated compared to 12z, which is why you saw a meh solution.

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Even if this one fails, at least an end to the cold is in sight. I've reached the point where, while I'd love a blizzard, the end of winter wouldn't induce any tear shedding, either.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Just saw the 18z GFS. It was marginally further east with the northern stream that run. We need that sucker dropping down through the eastern Dakotas or western MN like the 18z NAM…not through the arrowhead and Green Bay. All else being equal of course. There’s some other nuances that can help out either way but the northern stream is my main focus when watching this runs. 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
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  On 2/9/2022 at 10:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even if this one fails, at least an end to the cold is in sight. I've reached the point where, while I'd love a blizzard, the end of winter wouldn't induce any tear shedding, either.

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I get my wood pretty cheap, so if it wasn’t for the woodstove, I cannot imagine what my oil bill would’ve been this year.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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  On 2/9/2022 at 10:38 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I get my wood pretty cheap, so if it wasn’t for the woodstove, I cannot imagine what my oil bill would’ve been this year.

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It’s been tough. I’ve been pushing the wife to go geothermal and solar but she wants to prioritize other important things like a hidden kitchen pantry and a bigger master closet for her shoes. :gun_bandana:

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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  On 2/9/2022 at 9:23 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Unfortunately our region is too big to satisfy everyone with a storm so someone will always get shafted. Looks to be WOR folk again, should this pan out. There is too much ground to make up in 4 days for you to rain.

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We’ve been snake-bit this year for sure it seems, but the ground to make up is not that much in 4 days time at all. This “could”  come west quite a bit in the next couple days quite easily if this thing phases efficiently.  
 

Of course I’m not saying this happens being the way things have gone so far this winter, but that’s not too hard to do in the time that’s left with this potential. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
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  On 2/9/2022 at 10:45 PM, WinterWolf said:

We’ve been snake-bit this year for sure it seems, but the ground to make up is not that much in 4 days time at all. This “could”  come west quite a bit in the next couple days quite easily if this thing phases efficiently.  
 

Of course I’m not saying this happens being the way things have gone so far this winter, but that’s not too hard to do in the time that’s left with this potential. 

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Sure, it is possible and anything kind of is…possible, but I don’t see it tbh. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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  On 2/9/2022 at 10:46 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sure, it is possible and anything kind of is…possible, but I don’t see it tbh. 

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We’ll I guess what I’m saying,  along with Ray and Scott too, is that this can easily come west plenty in the time that’s left.  It’s not a big stretch. 
 

However, Will it?  With the way things have gone this year, I don’t think any of us can see it, cuz something always goes wrong. So we certainly don’t expect it to at all. So I think we agree there. 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 2/9/2022 at 11:00 PM, WinterWolf said:

We’ll I guess what I’m saying,  along with Ray and Scott too, is that this can easily come west plenty in the time that’s left.  It’s not a big stretch. 
 

However, Will it?  With the way things have gone this year, I don’t think any of us can see it, cuz something always goes wrong. So we certainly don’t expect it to at all. So I think we agree there. 

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The fact euro isn’t showing a bomb for Albany gives me pause. We’ll see but we can’t afford step backs or even neutral results over the next couple cycles.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Little behind in this thread but just got back from gym and this 18z NAM solution extrapolates all pretty like.

I'm a little concerned for the leading roll-out ridge being somewhat flat, with integrating higher velocities/geostrophic wind.  I'd like that to start curling into more anticyclonic curvature, however ... that may in fact be about to happen if this model were allowed to head out to 96 hours.

But it is the NAM so lest we forget, it's probably unfortunate for everyone that it goes out beyond 48 at all.. LOL...     anyway - if anything, we don't want this carving back more west than this here...

nam_z500_vort_us_29.png

 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
  On 2/9/2022 at 11:10 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The fact euro isn’t showing a bomb for Albany gives me pause. We’ll see but we can’t afford step backs or even neutral results over the next couple cycles.

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Euro isn’t what it used to be at all…it doesn’t do what it used to do either, so imo it’s not even the same model anymore, so we can’t apply the same things to it that we used to.
 

Energy still isn’t sampled at all…so still much to figure out over the next day or two. But I m with ya, I’m sure something will come along and muck this up soon enough, and it’ll be “ahhh dam this could have been awesome if it wasn’t for the saggy boobs, or that scooter sh*t streak etc etc.  I’m just waiting for that to come. 

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George001

George001

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  On 2/9/2022 at 10:20 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Even if this one fails, at least an end to the cold is in sight. I've reached the point where, while I'd love a blizzard, the end of winter wouldn't induce any tear shedding, either.

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Eh I hate winters that shut off early (like last year). If we get this threat to pan out, then after the warm spell late month another big one to pan out in March, I’ll be happy.

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