Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[dryslot]

Hot garbage at the surface.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

Euro looks much better at h5 but surface still sucks

[George001]

euro is better than 0z at h5. Northern stream is digging more and less energy being held back out west.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro looks much better at h5 but surface still sucks

We don’t live at h5 oddly enough 

[ORH_wxman]

That was significantly better than 00z aloft...you want that northern stream dropping in otherwise it's a moderate event as the ceiling.

[dryslot]

Surface results are the same or slightly worse, It sucked.

[cleetussnow]

I think its perfectly sensible to consider the H5 look at this lead time.  

[dryslot]

Better aloft but end results were not.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Hopefully ray didn’t start his blog yet 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Surface results are the same or slightly worse, It sucked.

I couldn't care less at this point...the 00z run upside was a moderate event....this is way better even if it doesn't satisfy the queens at Day 4-5. It was a pretty big move for the euro.

[George001]

I’m straight up ignoring the surface this was a good run. Not a hit but a step in the right direction. Need to get that third piece to phase in though if we want something really big.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I couldn't care less at this point...the 00z run upside was a moderate event....this is way better even if it doesn't satisfy the queens at Day 4-5. It was a pretty big move for the euro.

H5 yes it was, I will agree on that it was better then 0z.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I couldn't care less at this point...the 00z run upside was a moderate event....this is way better even if it doesn't satisfy the queens at Day 4-5. It was a pretty big move for the euro.

100% agree. I was thinking the same.  Who really cares if the surface didn’t respond just yet…we are still a moderate ways out, and the 500mb was significantly improved. I think that’s all you can ask for at this lead, especially for the Euro. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We don’t live at h5 oddly enough 

But at this lead that’s where we want to see the improvements.  You should know this…

[JC-CT]

15 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We don’t live at h5 oddly enough 

speak for yourself

[ORH_wxman]

If H5 improves again at the same magnitude that 12z did, you will definitely see the surface respond strongly....this run was getting close. If we were 60-72 hours out, I'd probably say this wasn't enough, but we have another couple cycles to get this into hit territory.

[Hazey]

Solid moves by the 12z suite. Details to be worked out. We track!

[Typhoon Tip]

29 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

It may have resulted flat at the surface but the 'fun' of that was directed for Will...  we've been discussing the N/stream sensitivity to this whole thing, so the stepped improvement in that regard was what we were looking for - 'boom' was in deference to that.   'boom, there we go..'

 

[78Blizzard]

It was a big move by the Euro, but too little, too late.  Can't expect big moves like this again.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

It was a big move by the Euro, but too little, too late.  Can't expect big moves like this again.

Agreed... and I've seen the Euro and other models do this in the past...where they begin capitulating on a given run cycle, but not full in... it's like they 'hedge' in a way.  If that mid/U/A comes in nudged even more amplified on the 18 ...0z, it'll probably break the dam and will go too far ( if anything...) the other way. 

Or not...but that type of antic is not uncommon.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

It was a big move by the Euro, but too little, too late.  Can't expect big moves like this again.

Yes you can 

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hopefully ray didn’t start his blog yet 

I waited, but I think I brief overview is still warranted.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Solid moves by the 12z suite. Details to be worked out. We track!

Yea, like whether its snowy or sunny.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Agreed... and I've seen the Euro and other models do this in the past...where they begin capitulating on a given run cycle, but not full in... it's like they 'hedge' in a way.  If that mid/U/A comes in nudged even more amplified on the 18 ...0z, it'll probably break the dam and will go too far ( if anything...) the other way. 

Or not...but that type of antic is not uncommon.

Yeah I'm not sure how many people realize how quickly this can go from fish food to a storm sitting over SE MA when playing with the fire on the northern stream like that. It's what we want for a high-end event, but there's a critical point where this comes way west if you phase that in early enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm not sure how many people realize how quickly this can go from fish food to a storm sitting over SE MA when playing with the fire on the northern stream like that. It's what we want for a high-end event, but there's a critical point where this comes way west if you phase that in early enough.

I would honestly take 8" of paste followed by a period of IP/rain, over a foot of subby sauce like the blizzard.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm not sure how many people realize how quickly this can go from fish food to a storm sitting over SE MA when playing with the fire on the northern stream like that. It's what we want for a high-end event, but there's a critical point where this comes way west if you phase that in early enough.

I was shocked to see Dryslot so meh, that was a sizeable move. All I needed to see.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I was shocked to see Dryslot so meh, that was a sizeable move. All I needed to see.

Maybe was run over by a sled?

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was shocked to see Dryslot so meh, that was a sizeable move. All I needed to see.

Wow...just looked. Everything is much more consolidated at H5.

[rimetree]

Maybe 18z GFS shows the big hit, followed by the Euro at 0z...I think that's how it progressed when the 1/29 blizzard was starting to come back in the models.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Now @Zeus is in the house.....its real.