Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[8611Blizz]

Changes much?  Boston could easily go into the 4-6" bands but it could also drop to the <1 Not a lot room for error.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:37 PM, 8611Blizz said:

Changes much?  Boston could easily go into the 4-6" bands but it could also drop to the <1

Expand  

NW MA has pretty much had that look every storm.   

[MJO812]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:37 PM, 8611Blizz said:

Changes much?  Boston could easily go into the 4-6" bands but it could also drop to the <1 Not a lot room for error.

Expand  

Remember when people said this was nothing but flurries. 

[8611Blizz]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:45 PM, MJO812 said:

Remember when people said this was nothing but flurries. 

Expand  

Yeah, yesterday. Model mayhem indeed.

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:48 PM, 8611Blizz said:

Yeah, yesterday.

Expand  

Yup was just gonna say that was less than a day ago. Might still be flurries? 

[codfishsnowman]

  On 2/12/2022 at 8:58 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

At this point I would be ecstatic for 2 inches of snow.

Expand  

Same here, especially without much wind, make things white for a couple days

[Sugarloaf1989]

The largest snowfall here was 7" of sand from the blizzard. 

I'm at 18" for the season. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Mark Rosenthal going big

“I think we get a moderate snowstorm in Boston....Starting early tomorrow morning and not really ending until late tomorrow night. My early thoughts are 3-6"+ form Boston to Worcester and 4-8"+ from Plymouth to Cape Cod. Bitter cold to follow late tomorrow night and Monday.”

[codfishsnowman]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:17 PM, ineedsnow said:

could have honestly dont remember though.. 

Expand  

No way, nothing close to that.

 

 

[codfishsnowman]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:52 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said:

The largest snowfall here was 7" of sand from the blizzard. 

I'm at 18" for the season. 

Expand  

 

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:55 PM, codfishsnowman said:

No way, nothing close to that.

 

 

Expand  

And amounts dropped off from there at the border, in fact some nw parts of Springfield only had 3 inches. I had 5 three miles north of the border

[The 4 Seasons]

Final call. Might end up being on the lower side in parts of eastern and southern CT. Bumped up quite a bit from our first call yesterday morning.

First call.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/12/2022 at 7:58 PM, MJO812 said:

Nam is coming in snowier for alot of areas . Low is also further northwest. 

Expand  

Not a difficult feat for model with a typical NW bias ...  altho, admittedly, it typically expresses that more often > 48 hours, still - it's not really setting well with me that it is the farthest NW.  I've described that bias more than a handful of times. It seem folks are not adopting much awareness ... I suspect because of situations similar to this here, where they need it's NW bias to keep hope alive?

Relative to the guidance, nonetheless: The blossoming of that QPF appears almost entirely driven by a very powerful 300mb wind max which accelerates, and situates an axis extending from the interior MA to Maine/NS... close to 180 mph!   The entire I-95 corridor in that NAM run is under it's lateral exit/entrance region, ... too far away NW to be directly attributed to the frontal wave escaping off the low mid Atlantic - I think others mentioned this.  Anyway, it excites upward vertical motion parallel, and associated elevated frontogenic banding from the DC to Boston.   The GFS has the same 300 mb jet structuring... but opts to tilt the QPF axis more ESE keeping lift axis' S of SNE in that guidance.  Not sure which is right ... I suspect there is enough agreement among all runs to have that band, and it fits the synoptic argument described above...  but the GFS is obviously deliberately engineered to always be the less fun run  jeez

The whole thing looks like an attempt at ANA like mechanics really to me.  Little leery of that... for like ANA ...they tend to be hotly QPF'ed, but end up eaten alive by dry air and slant-wise undercutting NVA/DVM .. taking water mass out of the lower thickness intervals.  It may do that here, and prove that band is there ...aloft.  It would not shock me if a lot of that is a raging virga shield. 

But, ..ugh.. that's not all of it.  There's likely to be some OES activity given that high's orientation, and the fresh new polar -arctic hybrid air flowing long shore into the coast early Monday. That could be an add on. In fact, the QPF looks suspiciously like the GFS is attempting to upslope against the Monadnocks and lower Whites ... which if is real, would be doing that over ORH too

 

[Ginx snewx]

Hi def RGEM the Herps is on board with the other hi def models for 3 to 6 across SNE

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:55 PM, codfishsnowman said:

No way, nothing close to that.

 

 

Expand  

I know we had one where I had 5 or 6 I think and my parents in Agawam had less than a inch  

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/12/2022 at 11:23 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Hi def RGEM the Herps is on board with the other hi def models for 3 to 6 across eastern areas of SNE

Expand  

fixed it for you

[Damage In Tolland]

We snow 

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro bumped NW. A little more defined with the IVT in SE MA too. That’s gonna have to be watched down there for a larger positive bust. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/13/2022 at 12:06 AM, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro bumped NW. A little more defined with the IVT in SE MA too. That’s gonna have to be watched down there for a larger positive bust. 

Expand  

Wow, most modeling coming northwest as we close in. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/13/2022 at 12:06 AM, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro bumped NW. A little more defined with the IVT in SE MA too. That’s gonna have to be watched down there for a larger positive bust. 

Expand  

You haven’t answered much of anything. This looks like a 2-4 to BDL

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/13/2022 at 12:16 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

You haven’t answered much of anything. This looks like a 2-4 to BDL

Expand  

Already gave my thoughts…might change based on 00z…but sticking with 1-2” maybe 3” for interior…best chance for advisory or better in SE MA

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

That was a snowy hrrrr run for eastern areas. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Maybe I'm a radar hallucinator....but is the current precip far greater than any model showed....including the NAM?

[Snowcrazed71]

Kind of curious if NWS will put any Winter Weather Advisories up for SNE? 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Hrrr is borderline warning snows 

[DJln491]

  On 2/12/2022 at 11:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

We snow 

Expand  

Yes we do.  But poking around the internet I feel like we’re the only ones that know.  Granted my area isn’t slated for much, but still. 

[BrianW]

  On 2/13/2022 at 1:54 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Kind of curious if NWS will put any Winter Weather Advisories up for SNE? 

 

Expand  

Upton thinks it's all going to melt.

 With record warmth today (highs in the
50s and 60s) ground temperatures remain well above freezing. In
addition, some of the 12z forecast guidance keeps temperatures
above freezing (33-35 degrees) during parts of the day Sunday.
While p-type is expected to be all snow, if these surface
temperatures do stay right around 32 or slightly above 32, we
may not see a lot of snow sticking to roads, and may be confined
to just the grassy surfaces.

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/13/2022 at 2:00 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Hrrr is borderline warning snows 

Expand  

Close call for your area.  2-4” seems pretty likely.  Maybe you score 6

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/13/2022 at 2:06 AM, BrianW said:

Upton thinks it's all going to melt.

 With record warmth today (highs in the
50s and 60s) ground temperatures remain well above freezing. In
addition, some of the 12z forecast guidance keeps temperatures
above freezing (33-35 degrees) during parts of the day Sunday.
While p-type is expected to be all snow, if these surface
temperatures do stay right around 32 or slightly above 32, we
may not see a lot of snow sticking to roads, and may be confined
to just the grassy surfaces.

Expand  

All about the rates…if it’s light snow then that thinking will prevail.  If it snows hard..it’ll stick/accumulate everywhere no matter what.  So they better hope it’s light snow rates. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/13/2022 at 2:10 AM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Close call for your area.  2-4” seems pretty likely.  Maybe you score 6

Expand  

This works

[DavisStraight]

  On 2/13/2022 at 2:13 AM, WinterWolf said:

All about the rates…if it’s light snow then that thinking will prevail.  If it snows hard..it’ll stick/accumulate everywhere no matter what.  So they better hope it’s light snow rates. 

Expand  

I don't see it above freezing over most of the area on current runs of the meso's, what do I know I'm just a weenie with a computer.