Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[HIPPYVALLEY]

At this point I would be ecstatic for 2 inches of snow.

[SouthCoastMA]

only saw precip maps, but RGEM marginally better? looked like it hung around longer into Monday

[DJln491]

  On 2/12/2022 at 8:58 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

At this point I would be ecstatic for 2 inches of snow.

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I’m with ya

[Sugarloaf1989]

  On 2/12/2022 at 8:58 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

At this point I would be ecstatic for 2 inches of snow.

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I'm expecting 2 flurries.

[512high]

  On 2/12/2022 at 8:22 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

12k clownage gives Wawa 6   Actually a bit SW of there

 

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Well if I were to even see 3" in my hometown most would say "where did this come from"? Local mets here said sunny! A lot would be very surprised 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/12/2022 at 9:02 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

only saw precip maps, but RGEM marginally better? looked like it hung around longer into Monday

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RGEM not biting on the NAM solutions is a bit of a red flag to me. It should be catching onto this inside of 24h. I’m not buying NAM yet. 

I’ll give it until the 00z run but for now I’m sticking with 1-2” here maybe a 3” lolli. Down there it could be advisory snows. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Reggie with basically cloudy here.  ACKWaves maybe gets 2"

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/12/2022 at 9:24 PM, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM not biting on the NAM solutions is a bit of a red flag to me. It should be catching onto this inside of 24h. I’m not buying NAM yet. 

I’ll give it until the 00z run but for now I’m sticking with 1-2” here maybe a 3” lolli. Down there it could be advisory snows. 

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Yea. I have T-2” outside of semaatt. 

[weathafella]

  On 2/12/2022 at 9:41 PM, MJO812 said:

LOL

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Go to panels ending after 12z Monday 

[MJO812]

  On 2/12/2022 at 9:46 PM, weathafella said:

Go to panels ending after 12z Monday 

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Gotcha

[MJO812]

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/12/2022 at 9:24 PM, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM not biting on the NAM solutions is a bit of a red flag to me. It should be catching onto this inside of 24h. I’m not buying NAM yet. 

I’ll give it until the 00z run but for now I’m sticking with 1-2” here maybe a 3” lolli. Down there it could be advisory snows. 

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HRRR is pretty snowy as well, interesting little battle..

[weathafella]

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/12/2022 at 9:09 PM, Sugarloaf1989 said:

I'm expecting 2 flurries.

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You’ll be 1-3” easy 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/12/2022 at 9:48 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

HRRR is pretty snowy as well, interesting little battle..

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HRRR with the win 

[MJO812]

  On 2/12/2022 at 9:49 PM, weathafella said:

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Gfs is trying to follow the other models 

[dendrite]

Ugh...too close for comfort. Need a messenger shuffle south.

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/12/2022 at 8:22 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

12k clownage gives Wawa 6   Actually a bit SW of there

 

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that will clearly be wrong we never jack

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:04 PM, ineedsnow said:

that will clearly be wrong we never jack

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Didn't you jack earlier this year

[WinterWolf]

Do any of the models ever agree anymore when we’re a day out from a potential? Always some sort of battle/disagreement happening… even at 24 hrs out.  

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:09 PM, WinterWolf said:

Do any of the models ever agree anymore when we’re a day out from a potential? Always some sort of battle/disagreement happening… even at 24 hrs out.  

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I like the HRRR with this. Reggie tossed for major inconsistencies. Mesos like the NAM RAP HRRR should handle this well inside 48. 

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:09 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Didn't you jack earlier this year

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not that I can remember this year has been terrible here  maybe on a small storm 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:12 PM, ineedsnow said:

not that I can remember this year has been terrible here  maybe on a small storm 

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Thought you guys had like a 7 to 8 while the rest had 2 or so

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:14 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Thought you guys had like a 7 to 8 while the rest had 2 or so

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could have honestly dont remember though.. 

[IowaStorm05]

Can't we jack a bit in this setup? I am seeing kisses and promises for at least 2"

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:04 PM, ineedsnow said:

that will clearly be wrong we never jack

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We warn 

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:11 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I like the HRRR with this. Reggie tossed for major inconsistencies. Mesos like the NAM RAP HRRR should handle this well inside 48. 

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GFS Has zero here, NAM has 4 plus inches lol.  I mean that’s a huge discrepancy at 24 hrs out. 

[IowaStorm05]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:19 PM, WinterWolf said:

GFS Has zero here, NAM has 4 plus inches lol.  I mean that’s a huge discrepancy at 24 hrs out. 

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Less time out than that. Starts in less than 12 hours?

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/12/2022 at 10:19 PM, WinterWolf said:

GFS Has zero here, NAM has 4 plus inches lol.  I mean that’s a huge discrepancy at 24 hrs out. 

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starts in 12 to 18 hours amazing how bad these models are

[SouthCoastMA]

confident in 3-4"+ here. gonna have to just nowcast any bands that develop further inland