Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[40/70 Benchmark]

The best analog in terms of sensible weather IMBY to that for me was Boxing day...it was exactly like it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would argue that 2013 beat out 1978 in terms of aerial coverage across the region.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Like I said ... I don't typically engage in the subjective tenor with this stuff, because of the semantic bullshitness of it.

I said, it got it done with the least plausible amount necessary to do so - focus on that.  Which it did, sorry!

plus, the storm left a lot on the table.

I don't understand least plausible. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The best analog in terms of sensible weather IMBY to that for me was Boxing day...it was exactly like it.

Tip downplayed that too. LOL. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Tip downplayed that too. LOL. 

They both sucked across the interior.

[CoastalWx]

So we should downplay Jan 2005 too I guess.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

They both sucked across the interior.

Hit the Berks hard though. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tip downplayed that too. LOL. 

No ... I did not "downplay" that event. 

I factually pointed out that it had none pervasive snow results - there were a lot of gaps.   I'm sure that in J.Q.'s backyard where 30" resulted, it seems like downplaying as a attitude or some other petty interpretation that took it personally .. but there was nothing personal - it did gap regions.  

 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don't understand least plausible. 

Straight up English

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

JMA is like having Willie Mo Pena coming up next

Or Mendoza coming in from the bullpen...for the Red Sox

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

No ... I did not "downplay" that event. 

I factually pointed out that it had none pervasive snow results - there were a lot of gaps.   I'm sure that in J.Q.'s backyard where 30" resulted, it seems like downplaying as a attitude or some other petty interpretation that took it personally .. but there was nothing personal - it did gap regions.  

 

I feel like if it did not hit someone's backyard...it seems to get downplayed. If aerial coverage is weighed in, sure. But saying something "in the least plausible way" insinuates  something limped into that category. I don't see how you can say that?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I thought the Canadian looked better 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I thought the Canadian looked better 

It's close to becoming a longer duration (albeit maybe not heavy) event for the coast. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like if it did not hit someone's backyard...it seems to get downplayed. If aerial coverage is weighed in, sure. But saying something "in the least plausible way" insinuates  something limped into that category. I don't see how you can say that?

Firstly, I do not fit into that ilk of intents and purposes for what I bring this engagement, and never did.  But people will have their biases not matter what those are, and to those ... you could just as well say lollypop - they'll hear dog shit.   It is what it dealing in an open public thoroughfare like the razor sharp objective fairness of the internet ...

Secondly, when I looked over and considered those events, and compared them to other extraordinary events ... Boxing Day and this recent blizzard, they are impressive storms, but their down side regions were larger - the just had more of them.   This specific point may be proven otherwise, ...but no one's doing that with empirical data, and I'm too lazy ha.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's close to becoming a longer duration (albeit maybe not heavy) event for the coast. 

It appeared to consolidate everything sooner this run; just missed us by a bit 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's close to becoming a longer duration (albeit maybe not heavy) event for the coast. 

How about interior ?

[SouthCoastMA]

would be nice if the NAM or ICON are sniffing out something. Still some time left for adjustments

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

How about interior ?

Needs work. Although the fronto band stuff could happen over the interior. I do feel like it wouldn't take much to get something like the ICON. Not writing it off yet around here, but I'm also not all in.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So we should downplay Jan 2005 too I guess.

Yes. That was a letdown and not that impactful for many outside of semaatt.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Firstly, I do not fit into that ilk of intents and purposes for what I bring this engagement, and never did.  But people will have their biases not matter what those are, and to those ... you could just as well say lollypop - they'll hear dog shit.   It is what it dealing in an open public thoroughfare like the razor sharp objective fairness of the internet ...

Secondly, when I looked over and considered those events, and compared them to other extraordinary events ... Boxing Day and this recent blizzard, they are impressive storms, but their down side regions were larger - the just had more of them.   This specific point may be proven otherwise, ...but no one's doing that with empirical data, and I'm too lazy ha.

Well I definitely agree it did not encompass a lot of geographical area for sure.  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes. That was a letdown and not that impactful for many outside of semaatt.

ORH still got 2' and NE Mass over 24-30". . But eastern CT did not do that well. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

would be nice if the NAM or ICON are sniffing out something. Still some time left for adjustments

They’re sniffing something but it ain’t legal and a highly dangerous substance.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

ORH still got 2' and NE Mass over 24-30". . But eastern CT did not do that well. 

RI did well too iirc. Probably not the accordion though, I’m sure he somehow got screwed with 19.49” and smashed equipment because he fell short of 20” while everyone else around him did.

[FXWX]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like if it did not hit someone's backyard...it seems to get downplayed. If aerial coverage is weighed in, sure. But saying something "in the least plausible way" insinuates  something limped into that category. I don't see how you can say that?

Agree... If you thumb through the KU book and use the MBY mentality as your guide, any one person could cross out about 70% of the events.  We could rename the book from 'NORTHEAST SNOWSTORMS" to something like "NORTHEAST SNOWSTORMS FOR SOME; NOT SO MUCH FOR OTHERS?" 

[PhineasC]

You know a threat is dead when the thread devolves to discussing the same old snowstorms of the past again. 

[WinterWolf]

Euro should be in soon to drive the final nail into the coffin, and lower it down into the ground for us.   Just another wasted opportunity that is winter 2021-2022.  

[Typhoon Tip]

This recent string of it ... it's why I don't engage typically in semantic and or IMBY tinted discussion music when it comes to 'orchestrating' an unbiased accounting of which winter and or storm event(s) within, should rank x-y-z.

The one time I try -   lighting bolts!   hahaha.  Also, folks could lighten up a bit, too.  Subtleties of nuance in droll humor is gets missed too often for taking this shit too seriously.

Yeah yeah. We all got our hot takes man.  It's all good while being all bad.  Lol.

Anyway, the GGEM solution ...ICON for that matter, both are "better" at 500 mb ( NAM perhaps too - ).  But one aspect I hate about all of these solutions is the structural orientation of the escape flow at 500 mb along and off the EC, nearing 84 hours ..

It is too flat.  Not only that, it is fast fast fast...  This aspect is a negative interference.   I almost feel these 500 mb focuses risk being irrelevant altogether, if that does not start to arc more ridge-lined, with slowing velocities.  This was also present - btw - in the modeling, prior to the blizzard in those 3 or 4 days head, too.   The GFS was consummately "chasing convection" as it were... But the model was just exposing the negative interference.

[Cold Miser]

22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You know a threat is dead when the thread devolves to discussing the same old snowstorms of the past again. 

This has happened quite often this season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

So we should downplay Jan 2005 too I guess.

Jan 2005 and Jan 2015 both had big bands west...this one didn't.

[dryslot]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Euro should be in soon to drive the final nail into the coffin, and lower it down into the ground for us.   Just another wasted opportunity that is winter 2021-2022.  

You don't want to look.