Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[CoastalWx]

NAM was decent for Ray. 

[ORH_wxman]

This one needs a big trend at 12z or it’s done. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Glad I was hesitant at 12z yesterday… had the feel of a Paul pierce head fake.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 2/10/2022 at 11:40 AM, CoastalWx said:

NAM was decent for Ray. 

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He can have it, I want nothing to do with that look. A few inches Sunday does nothing for me.

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

This one needs a big trend at 12z or it’s done. 

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Yea it’s done.  This winter just can’t put it together.  Oh well. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/10/2022 at 11:37 AM, MJO812 said:

This Monday storm is not looking good at all.  We need big changes by today. 

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It never was Monday 

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:06 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

He can have it, I want nothing to do with that look. A few inches Sunday does nothing for me.

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I’ll take a few inches then. It’s going to be cold regardless. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:07 PM, CoastalWx said:

I’ll take a few inches then. It’s going to be cold regardless. 

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I’m happy with 2-4” here 

[MJO812]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:03 PM, ORH_wxman said:

This one needs a big trend at 12z or it’s done. 

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The blizzard last week had multiple runs of one model shows a hit. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:07 PM, WinterWolf said:

Yea it’s done.  This winter just can’t put it together.  Oh well. 

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Thanks man. SWC has been on fire this year. Wish they were wrong more but hats off to them.

[dryslot]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:17 PM, MJO812 said:

The blizzard last week had multiple runs of one model shows a hit. 

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This is not last weeks blizzard, She gone before she came.

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:17 PM, MJO812 said:

The blizzard last week had multiple runs of one model shows a hit. 

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That storm sucked too…except for one area. 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/10/2022 at 11:40 AM, CoastalWx said:

NAM was decent for Ray. 

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It really isn't a melt....I didn't expect much. Just calling it as I see it. I'm over it.

[MJO812]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:22 PM, WinterWolf said:

That storm sucked too…except for one area. 

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A few areas

South NJ

Eastern Li

Cape

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:22 PM, dryslot said:

This is not last weeks blizzard, She gone before she came.

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Yup.

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:17 PM, MJO812 said:

The blizzard last week had multiple runs of one model shows a hit. 

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For the millionth time this winter you are setting yourself up for disappointment....it is sort of like Jets fans buying tickets to the super bowl that is being played on Sunday and then learning the Jets were eliminated from the playoffs last August...

[MJO812]

Can we get this run back ?

[MJO812]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:24 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

For the millionth time this winter you are setting yourself up for disappointment....it is sort of like Jets fans buying tickets to the super bowl that is being played on Sunday and then learning the Jets were eliminated from the playoffs last August...

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You mean it was a disappointment but at least it wasn't a blowtorch. 

[JC-CT]

So what's the latest with this little bitch? We getting some mood snow or what?

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:43 PM, JC-CT said:

So what's the latest with this little bitch? We getting some mood snow or what?

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I suppose that’s still possible…

[Cold Miser]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:22 PM, WinterWolf said:

That storm sucked too…except for one area. 

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Yeah. My 20" sucked. lol

[SouthCoastMA]

Appears to be an unfortunate timing error..that lead shortwave moving off the coast is too fast despite that digging northern stream. And I guess the northern stream isn't digging like it did at 12z yesterday. so meh

[JC-CT]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:58 PM, Cold Miser said:

Yeah. My 2" got sucked. lol

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Congrats - doesn't really count if you do it yourself though

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:59 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

Appears to be an unfortunate timing error..that lead shortwave moving off the coast is too fast despite that digging northern stream. And I guess the northern stream isn't digging like it did at 12z yesterday. so meh

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Yeah that first s/w kind of induces the low and then that low scoots northeast. That nrn stream digs plenty enough, but lead s/w messes that up. 
These things happen all the time, it’s just that with this winter.......it’s getting more scrutiny. 

[JC-CT]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:06 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that first s/w kind of induces the low and then that low scoots northeast. That nrn stream digs plenty enough, but lead s/w messes that up. 
These things happen all the time, it’s just that with this winter.......it’s getting more scrutiny. 

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It's also the kind of dynamic in which a place like DC or RIC often needs

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:58 PM, Cold Miser said:

Yeah. My 20" sucked. lol

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For most everywhere else it was a dud. Yes You guys did great. But it could have been even better for a much larger area…that’s more my point. Very forgettable here, and for a lot of places. 

[Cold Miser]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:10 PM, WinterWolf said:

For most everywhere else it was a dud. Yes You guys did great. But it could have been even better for a much larger area…that’s more my point. Very forgettable here, and for a lot of places. 

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But you have man made snow at Mt. Southington near you.

[dendrite]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:25 PM, MJO812 said:

Can we get this run back ?

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We get that at d10 every day.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:50 PM, WinterWolf said:

I suppose that’s still possible…

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Yeah there will likely be a fronto band with this thing…SE areas favored for now. But unless we get back to sharpening up that southern stream again, the upside is something like 4-7” in a stripe. 
 

For the higher end scenarios to be back in play, we’ll want to see a big trend at 12z of sharpening up the southern vort and having it phase with northern stream. I’m not expecting that trend, but it’s what we would need.