Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/9/2022 at 11:43 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Seems like 18z isn’t continuing the good trend of 12z

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Well to be fair the NAM looked very explosive, and so did the Reggie still. Taken with the grain of salt of course. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/9/2022 at 11:53 PM, WinterWolf said:

Well to be fair the NAM looked very explosive, and so did the Reggie still. Taken with the grain of salt of course. 

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Icon as well. But we shall see tomorrow what the deets are.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/9/2022 at 11:43 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Seems like 18z isn’t continuing the good trend of 12z

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You’re in a great spot though. If the trends at 18z, you’d be risking rain in no time.

[CoastalWx]

I think 18z euro was better. Some of this maybe timing related, but overall I think a better look with nrn stream.

[brooklynwx99]

agree. digging farther W and the trough is more held back

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah slight improvement on 18z euro. 

[ORH_wxman]

Would like to see the trend continue on 00z obviously. It would be nice to see either the GFS or Euro have a hit. 

[Henry's Weather]

The fact that this trending bigger would been an ICON midrange coup makes me doubt it'll happen

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:38 AM, Henry's Weather said:

The fact that this trending bigger would been an ICON midrange coup makes me doubt it'll happen

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Blind squirrel? 

[George001]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:26 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

agree. digging farther W and the trough is more held back

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What really interests me is that piece in Canada. A slower evolution would hopefully give that more time to catch up and phase in. Without that this is just a moderate event, I’m looking for something big.

[Whineminster]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:14 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You’re in a great spot though. If the trends at 18z, you’d be risking rain in no time.

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Let's hope he is

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:54 AM, George001 said:

What really interests me is that piece in Canada. A slower evolution would hopefully give that more time to catch up and phase in. Without that this is just a moderate event, I’m looking for something big.

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Moderate event would be fine I guess but yea, at this stage of the season we’re hunting for a big one. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:58 AM, Whineminster said:

Let's hope he is

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Lol well I don’t want to rain on his parade. I joke with the sema peeps, I’m not trying to steal their snow, wish we can all cash in big, but if that’s what is needed for WOR and interior to get a big event, I won’t feel bad about it just like they don’t feel bad when their digging out of another two footer while we brush our walkways of a few inches of sand. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:31 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah slight improvement on 18z euro. 

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Fine but we need some decent/big eps hits to get George painting 60” maps. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/10/2022 at 12:38 AM, Henry's Weather said:

The fact that this trending bigger would been an ICON midrange coup makes me doubt it'll happen

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I’m giving it until tomorrow night. If 0z and tomorrow’s runs are one step forward one step backwards…we can pretty much see it for what it is. 

[dryslot]

I think you really want to see some bigger shifts here coming up, You're getting inside day 4 now and these incremental moves are not going to cut it, Usually by now you've had some models showing some big hits, Outside of the 0z UKIE, Or the 12z GGEM to some extent,  I have not seen anything else that i would consider reliable.

[brooklynwx99]

EPS follows suit. more consolidated trough, similar to the OP

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:08 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS follows suit. more consolidated trough, similar to the OP

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I’m no pro by any means, but that looks like a significant move to me. Trough sharpened up pretty nicely. But maybe I don’t know what I’m looking at? 

[dryslot]

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:08 AM, dryslot said:

I think you really want to see some bigger shifts here coming up, You're getting inside day 4 now and these incremental moves are not going to cut it, Usually by now you've had some models showing some big hits, Outside of the 0z UKIE, Or the 12z GGEM to some extent,  I have not seen anything else that i would consider reliable.

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Agree.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:22 AM, dryslot said:

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Lol meh. On life support until tomorrow I suppose. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:22 AM, dryslot said:

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That’s solid . It keeps backing 

[dryslot]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:29 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s solid . It keeps backing 

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That looks like garbage, Everyone of those is weak sauce, It went east from 12z.

[msg112469]

  On 2/9/2022 at 10:28 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Just saw the 18z GFS. It was marginally further east with the northern stream that run. We need that sucker dropping down through the eastern Dakotas or western MN like the 18z NAM…not through the arrowhead and Green Bay. All else being equal of course. There’s some other nuances that can help out either way but the northern stream is my main focus when watching this runs. 

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Manitoba Mauler.

[Diggiebot]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:31 AM, msg112469 said:

Manitoba Mauler.

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Makes me think of James. This was his go to ingredient for a miller b nuke 

[DavisStraight]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:02 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lol well I don’t want to rain on his parade. I joke with the sema peeps, I’m not trying to steal their snow, wish we can all cash in big, but if that’s what is needed for WOR and interior to get a big event, I won’t feel bad about it just like they don’t feel bad when their digging out of another two footer while we brush our walkways of a few inches of sand. 

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That's not fair, I cry for you WOR people

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:29 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s solid . It keeps backing 

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Drunk with sleepy eyes.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:30 AM, dryslot said:

That looks like garbage, Everyone of those is weak sauce, It went east from 12z.

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This could be one that hits SNE and exits ENE

[DavisStraight]

  On 2/10/2022 at 1:43 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Drunk with sleepy eyes.

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It's all in the glasses you wear when you read weather maps.

[CoastalWx]

I thought that was a lot better than 12z. The mean.