Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[78Blizzard]

It's time for the king to put up or shut up.

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:08 PM, WinterWolf said:

Assuming we get a storm, are we talking sun night into Monday? Or more a Monday deal? 

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right now its looking like a sun afternoon into overnight. That would mainly be a night storm. But at this range ~100-120hrs you can expect that to shift up to 6-12 hours in either direction. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Oh. Just hopped on to see that the CMC threw some blood in the tank for the malnourished inland peeps to lap up. 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:08 PM, WinterWolf said:

Assuming we get a storm, are we talking sun night into Monday? Or more a Monday deal? 

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Sunday afternoon and night .. ending Monday am

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:09 PM, dryslot said:

Its been a rough go on these, I followed them all year and has not performed that well really, GFS thermals are still skewed.

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I take them with shakers of salt.  This was really the first time I looked at them in a while.  Can be fun if they hold

[dryslot]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:19 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

I take them with shakers of salt.  This was really the first time I looked at them in a while.  Can be fun if they hold

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That's true, But were going to need either the GFS or the Euro or both to really start hitting this fairly soon.

[dryslot]

12z GEFS didn't look all that appealing but it usually follows the OP so i'm not surprised.

[mreaves]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:19 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

I take them with shakers of salt.  This was really the first time I looked at them in a while.  Can be fun if they hold

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Probably could use these.  Please note she is carrying an umbrella and walking in a downpour.

[40/70 Benchmark]

GEPS look pretty good.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:26 PM, dryslot said:

12z GEFS didn't look all that appealing but it usually follows the OP so i'm not surprised.

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It’s been a nice morning so far throwing us a bone but this needs a lot of work still considering we’re in the d4 zone already.

[Spanks45]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:34 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been a nice morning so far throwing us a bone but this needs a lot of work still considering we’re in the d4 zone already.

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I am far from optimistic, especially with the way this season has gone....However, day 4 is an eternity this year, if we were bulls eyed 4 days out I still wouldn't expect much. Knowing that there is going to be some push westward from ridging off shore gives me pause, even a CMC solution is plausible. If there isn't much shift going into Friday, then I would assume this one is DOA

[HoarfrostHubb]

12z ICON gives most of SNE 3-6"       I'm sure we can lock that in 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:34 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been a nice morning so far throwing us a bone but this needs a lot of work still considering we’re in the d4 zone already.

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To be fair, it’s closer to day 5… looks like bulk would be overnight Sunday into Monday 

[weathafella]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:34 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s been a nice morning so far throwing us a bone but this needs a lot of work still considering we’re in the d4 zone already.

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Think of the progress in the past 24 hours.  Tomorrow night at 0z should give much more clarity.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:46 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

To be fair, it’s closer to day 5… looks like bulk would be overnight Sunday into Monday 

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No

[MJO812]

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 2/9/2022 at 3:01 PM, Hazey said:

Maybe this bucks the trend. You know the previous storms that look great 3 weeks out and have 500 page threads only to fall apart at short range. Perhaps this will work in reverse. 

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Was that your truck horn keeping me awake last night?

[Hazey]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:54 PM, Go Kart Mozart said:

Was that your truck horn keeping me awake last night?

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Honk Honk!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:48 PM, weathafella said:

Think of the progress in the past 24 hours.  Tomorrow night at 0z should give much more clarity.

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I was giving it until the weenie nam range before shutting the door so 0z Friday is about right. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:46 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

To be fair, it’s closer to day 5… looks like bulk would be overnight Sunday into Monday 

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I don't really look at snow start time or bulk of precip though but moreso how much time we have to make changes at h5 before the surface is off the coastline...which is around 96hr give or take. 

[dryslot]

Where's JC?

[George001]

  On 2/9/2022 at 5:52 PM, MJO812 said:

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That’s like a 200 miles shift west in one run, I buy it too with the ridge axis as far west as it is. This seems familiar…

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 2/9/2022 at 6:08 PM, dryslot said:

Where's JC?

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Waiting for King JMA to come on board before he chimes in.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro  already significantly west with the northern stream than the 06z run at 72 hours

[Typhoon Tip]

boom

[MJO812]

  On 2/9/2022 at 6:15 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

boom

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Flat

[MJO812]

Euro looks much better at h5 but surface still sucks

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 2/9/2022 at 6:15 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

boom

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  On 2/9/2022 at 6:16 PM, MJO812 said:

Flat

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[dryslot]

12z Euro not going to cut it comparing to 0z, Its about the same result or even a tic east.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Dr no in the house