Feb 13-14 snowstorm/nor’easter potential

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie would go nuclear if we could see another couple panels.

 

God help me, I'm going to end up blogging.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow. You ain't kidding lol.

Yep, that's a high-end look...not just a mundane 6-10 warning event.....though I'd obviously take 6-10 if you offered me now, lol.

But we'll have to see if other guidance keeps catching onto this phase scenario because the early 12z models are definitely trending toward that.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie would go nuclear if we could see another couple panels.

 

Ha ha .. the irony there? 

if that southern weirdness there in the Gulf proves to be faux convective fakery, that actually might result in a Miller B hahahaha.  

Hopefully that happens - with no actually logic conveyed that shows that was interpolated from clad meteorological reasoning and experience combined, that happens anyway.   Let's do it!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

God help me, I'm going to end up blogging.

You will blog but you won't be happy with another SEMA jack. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha .. the irony there? 

if that southern weirdness there in the Gulf proves to be faux convective fakery, that actually might result in a Miller B hahahaha.  

Hopefully that happens - with no actually logic conveyed that shows that was interpolated from clad meteorological reasoning and experience combined, that happens anyway.   Let's do it!

Yeah I think that northern stream is the major key piece in turning this into a higher end threat versus "merely" a warning event. You opined at the end of your previous post on that....but yeah, that's kind of funny after we said Miller B was unlikely....and it probably still is because I think most guidance has that energy down south which will spawn the main low....though we could end up with a bit of a hybrid too.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha .. the irony there? 

if that southern weirdness there in the Gulf proves to be faux convective fakery, that actually might result in a Miller B hahahaha.  

Hopefully that happens - with no actually logic conveyed that shows that was interpolated from clad meteorological reasoning and experience combined, that happens anyway.   Let's do it!

Convection blobs and double saggy boobs ruining the potential in 3, 2, ....1. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You will blog but you won't be happy with another SEMA jack. 

LOL, you guys are hell bent on that. Don't forget our friend in ern CT got 2'.  It is way way too early to even entertain that. 

FWIW, I hope you guys get in on something good before the season ends. Would be nice for a Feb 2017 deal when we all had 12-18". 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You will blog but you won't be happy with another SEMA jack. 

That's the fear...this season must have set a record low bandwidth to return ratio for me.

[dryslot]

WOR crowd are shook.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha .. the irony there? 

if that southern weirdness there in the Gulf proves to be faux convective fakery, that actually might result in a Miller B hahahaha.  

Hopefully that happens - with no actually logic conveyed that shows that was interpolated from clad meteorological reasoning and experience combined, that happens anyway.   Let's do it!

Yea, that's what I mentioned last page....that N stream will make or break depending on whether or not it phases.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Reggie would go nuclear if we could see another couple panels.

 

WOW, that looks like a powder keg for sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

WOR crowd are shook.

WOI 95 pretty shaken, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

LOL, you guys are hell bent on that. Don't forget our friend in ern CT got 2'.  It is way way too early to even entertain that. 

FWIW, I hope you guys get in on something good before the season ends. Would be nice for a Feb 2017 deal when we all had 12-18". 

I mentioned from Steve to Will to you.  That's been the line the past two seasons. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WOI 495 pretty shaken, too.

fixed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

LOL, you guys are hell bent on that. Don't forget our friend in ern CT got 2'.  It is way way too early to even entertain that. 

FWIW, I hope you guys get in on something good before the season ends. Would be nice for a Feb 2017 deal when we all had 12-18". 

Sticking out into the Atlantic has it's advantages. I actually envy it. An ocean low farts and you folks shovel 18". 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned from Steve to Will to you.  That's been the line the past two seasons. 

Probably not me last year. 2/1/21 FTL there.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned from Steve to Will to you.  That's been the line the past two seasons. 

I did better than Ginx last winter 

[Allsnow]

Go George go 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

fixed.

No, outside of 128 had about what I did...Wilmington had like 2" more.

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably not me last year. 2/1/21 FTL there.

True....Steve to Will.

[NeonPeon]

12 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sticking out into the Atlantic has it's advantages. I actually envy it. An ocean low farts and you folks shovel 18". 

Sometimes the farts are liquid.

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

WOR crowd are shook.

Not really. Been a great 21 years WOR.

Only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century (this year will prolly make 7).

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyway, TBH, Reggie looked a lot like the UK from last night. I wouldn't be surprised if that is the midday trend....IMBY anxiety disorders not withstanding.

[A Moonlit Sky]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not really. Been a great 21 years WOR.

Only 6 below average snowfall seasons this century (this year will prolly make 7).

Go just a little north of you and that changes in a big way.

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sticking out into the Atlantic has it's advantages. I actually envy it. An ocean low farts and you folks shovel 18". 

Yeah definitely in a non blocking pattern BUT if you look at average annual snowfall distribution west averages more (likely due to elevation). Due west of Boston are the Birks and I believe average a lot higher.

Seems like west won 2000 to 2011 and east won since.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyway, TBH, Reggie looked a lot like the UK from last night. I wouldn't be surprised if that is the midday trend....IMBY anxiety disorders not withstanding.

Hadn't looked at much of any models but just went and looked at the UK, That would work if we get the GFS/Euro to follow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, dryslot said:

Hadn't looked at much of any models but just went and looked at the UK, That would work if we get the GFS/Euro to follow.

Yea. I am temporarily a bit intrigued....but gotta get at least one of those on board at 12z.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea. I am temporarily a bit intrigued....but gotta get at least one of those on board at 12z.

I think GFS will be better just by the look at H5.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think GFS will be better just by the look at H5.

Looks better for sure, but it won't go Reggie/Ukie just yet.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think that northern stream is the major key piece in turning this into a higher end threat versus "merely" a warning event. You opined at the end of your previous post on that....but yeah, that's kind of funny after we said Miller B was unlikely....and it probably still is because I think most guidance has that energy down south which will spawn the main low....though we could end up with a bit of a hybrid too.

Oh absolutely ... heh, previous was tongue-in-cheek of course..

Yeah, the southern aspect is real an ain't goin' away.  It's a matter of whether this n-stream can be significantly strong enough to 'torque' the total circulation manifold, such that whatever comes of down south, gets foisted ...captured...blah blah.

agreed- that's not an M-b deal.