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Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.


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34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Goofus is still not thrilled.

It’s kind of a putrid system on a lot of these runs. Mostly the IVT out ahead of it…a few runs like some of those NAM solutions are a little more real…those are what it will take I think for more than 3-4” of paste…maybe a few spots could try and pull 6” in the IVT scenario but they would prob be isolated. 
 

 

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s kind of a putrid system on a lot of these runs. Mostly the IVT out ahead of it…a few runs like some of those NAM solutions are a little more real…those are what it will take I think for more than 3-4” of paste…maybe a few spots could try and pull 6” in the IVT scenario but they would prob be isolated. 
 

 

Yeah ... looks like the interest might be shifting more E-CNE and Maine ... But, the 00z could bring it back ...etc... 

Folks should keep in mind that weak systems of this nature could actually snow pretty dense because we mustn't neglect where they are originating.  It's congealing out of that deep subtropical easterly fetch ENE of Florida, and then gets captured by a weak N/stream...  It's really a phasing of weak mechanics ... but then captured, it's likely to be pwat wealthy.  

It sucks that this is prime time seasonal snow storm and this is what we got to show for it - it's all we got.

Not the thread for it but the Valentine's Day system is again presented on the 18z GFS.   I bothered to check the ens means and 2/3rd carry the membership on that, and considering the numerical telecon [ appear to be ] bringing a new +PNA surge over the horizon of D10, well...  we both know it's a hemispheric look.   It's sucks when the Euro does this prematurely though, because one cannot start a thread for that without those images getting in the way lol.

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had a great day skate skiing in Carlisle today - this whole area has 4" of frozen cement with a dusting on top - great surface for skate skiing. Hoping this weather system doesn't mess it up. I'm playing catch up with my xc skiing.

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really didn't need the dig but thanks. You average about the same as I have since 2000. Kevin's probably 68 to 70 since 2000. My totals for 18/19 19/20 20/21

40.2

25.2 

51

 

It's all in your head dude.

Not sure what you are smoking....I average in the low 60's, and Kev is around 60". I def average more than you do.

You are wrong.

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4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

He got smoked last Dec while south of the Pike got porked. Its all about the Jack. Little events are what make averages and that is what we are comparing. 

You are just making things up....I got 11" in the Dec 2020 event....that death band was well north of me, Brian to Albany to BGM got it. Anyway, you are shifting the argument....my whole point was that I have not sniffed AVERAGE SEASONAL snowfall in the past 4 years.

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

If you go by just since 2000, Ray prob averages over 70”…so his deficit would look even worse the last 4 years. He was using long term climo numbers. 

 

4 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The numbers presented without context may not seem so bad, but it does seem like his area has gotten porked on the larger scale events. All you have to do is go back and look at the threads. In an overall large scale setup, he does seem to find himself in a relative min more often than not.

He might make some of it up on the margins, as far as smaller events or holding on to snow longer before rain etc etc, but the large scale point is real.

Minus last weekend, this also hasn’t been a banner half decade for most of eastern New England 

 

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nitpicking, but can’t really use percentages since he has a different average than you. Gotta use standard dev. But anyways, you had an epic ratter but also a season near your average in 2018-2019. 
 

Don’t really want to derail this thread any further though. I agree with the larger point that Ray’s area isn’t egregiously unique in the past 4 years…maybe just somewhat. I’ll be western MA gives him a run too. 

Yea, that is fair.....all I was saying is that I have had the worst luck regionally the past 4 seasons....nothing utterly obscene. He asks for the data, I present it, and he ignore it and talks past it.

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You are just making things up....I got 11" in the Dec 2020 event....that death band was well north of me, Brian to Albany to BGM got it. Anyway, you are shifting the argument....my whole point was that I have not sniffed AVERAGE SEASONAL snowfall in the past 4 years.

Well you shifted because you said you had it worse regionally than any one else. 3 years as this year isn't over Feb 5th. I put up empirical numbers and yes my average since 2000 is 62. 

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6 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Find an area worse off than I am over the past 4 years...good luck.

 

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Really didn't need the dig but thanks. You average about the same as I have since 2000. Kevin's probably 68 to 70 since 2000. My totals for 18/19 19/20 20/21

40.2

25.2 

51

 

It's all in your head dude.

 

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Last 3 years using since 2000 average.  Perception is different than empirical data.

142/210 Ray 67%

126/ 195 me 64%

 

 

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

Yea, that is fair.....all I was saying is that I have had the worst luck regionally the past 4 seasons....nothing utterly obscene. He asks for the data, I present it, and he ignore it and talks past it.

I didn't ignore anything I put up numbers worse than you. You want us all to pity you when in fact we all had low numbers 18 to 21 relative to average.

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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well you shifted because you said you had it worse regionally than any one else. 3 years as this year isn't over Feb 5th. I put up empirical numbers and yes my average since 2000 is 62. 

Right....where is the shift again? I said the past 4 seasons, which obviously season to date. If it will make you feel any better, I'll revisit this in April.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right....where is the shift again? I said the past 4 seasons, which obviously season to date. If it will make you feel any better, I'll revisit this in April.

I don't give a hoot toot. You are obviously distraught and emotionally traumatized. Take solace you are not alone the last (4) years ask Hippy. 

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2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

I don't give a hoot toot. You are obviously distraught and emotionally traumatized. Take solace you are not alone the last (4) years ask Hippy. 

I simply presenting the requested empirical data....you seemed a bit disoriented.  You presented totals lowers than mine from areas that average LESS.....I was ready to call in a mental status test.  

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