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Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.


Typhoon Tip
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17 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I was planning on going to bed early now I have to stay up for the 0z models looks like ill be sleeping in tomorrow :weenie:

Go to bed pal, check in the morning, all you need to see will be there in the morning. It isn’t an imminent threat, and will probably disappoint anyway. So get some sleep and check when you get up. 

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That low over the Great Lakes just sits there losing what little energy it ever had, until it almost disappears. For once, you might actually benefit if the Great Lakes low had some energy because that could trigger a coastal reflection instead of what the GFS currently shows as an OTS non-phasing low. 

I think there's a chance, given the faint signals available from other sources. Should see a trend towards this phasing over the weekend if it's going to happen. 

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“…I'd stress minor to middling affects from this for now”

The alternative is a lot of days of nothin - 

I think folks are attempting to reconcile expectation against present middling  signal, which there is gap there.  I mean it may improve … let that marinate from a position of more modest expectation and the purpose of this might work better for you. 

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS

 

C9BD3123-4132-4C2F-B0BE-118C9A31766B.png

B1F4EF30-17C3-4B91-965A-0579A58C18A9.png

It's so close down in SNE. I was thinking about what you and Scott were talking about with lower level 925 being colder than depicted. Let's hope modeling is off on thermals a bit. Positioning argues for a nice little event. Even a bit of east flow. Have to watch closely 

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