Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Hopefully like 2012

I would sign now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I still feel like early March will have something, though. 

[ORH_wxman]

GFS still not really interested in this. 

[PhineasC]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I actually have a good feeling on this one. Think it has legs. And not just for elevations. 

Needs to start showing up on the op runs of the varsity models. Not far away at all. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

GFS still not really interested in this. 

After it’s performance on this storm .. good 

[ineedsnow]

18z GEFS look better a couple sweet looking members 

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS still not really interested in this. 

GEFS kind of are

[Damage In Tolland]

16 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS kind of are

Yeah nice hits interspersed . I’m all into this one. We lost the one next weekend . At least on 12z stuff 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah nice hits interspersed . I’m all into this one. We lost the one next weekend . At least on 12z stuff 

18z has a mod storm Friday

[MJO812]

Gefs

[Damage In Tolland]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs

Someone may come in and say those are Rainers except for ORH county north.. but that’s a solid look in general 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Someone may come in and say those are Rainers except for ORH county north.. but that’s a solid look in general 

Temps are cold enough on GEFS

[CoastalWx]

Euro trying. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Temps are cold enough on GEFS

Yup . But.. gfs and GEFS for today . Yikes 

[Connecticut Appleman]

Hopefully something breaks right otherwise this is pretty sums up this winter.  It would be nice to be a short fuse event - the long fuse ones usually disappoint.

[ma blizzard]

1 minute ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

Hopefully something breaks right otherwise this is pretty sums up this winter.  It would be nice to be a short fuse event - the long fuse ones usually disappoint.

when was the last time this happened? seems like its been awhile .. maybe we are due? 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro trying. 

I wonder what would happen if we saw a few more frames. It had that initial lead pulse of precip but the main show is still well south and that looked promising because it could form a proper midlevel circulation and draw the colder air back in via CCB. 

[ineedsnow]

Euro getting closer I think after 90 it would have went east     but it was west of 12z for sure

[ineedsnow]

curious to see if the EPS goes west    

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wonder what would happen if we saw a few more frames. It had that initial lead pulse of precip but the main show is still well south and that looked promising because it could form a proper midlevel circulation and draw the colder air back in via CCB. 

Was thinking the same. Such a borderline airmass but winds were North and you could see even at 925 over NJ it was cooling.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Was thinking the same. Such a borderline airmass but winds were North and you could see even at 925 over NJ it was cooling.

You and your wind direction lol. Only from a coastal guy 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Kiss of death is when you hear guidance is "trying".

[ORH_wxman]

EPS didn’t look bad

 

[PhineasC]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Kiss of death is when you hear guidance is "trying".

I don't get this one. Seems kinda lame and a long shot.

EPS looks to have drifted back east to me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS didn’t look bad

 

Maybe I can watch the snow fly 12 miles to my east again before it rains again mid month .

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I don't get this one. Seems kinda lame and a long shot.

EPS looks to have drifted back east to me.

Right, but especially for you.

[Damage In Tolland]

35 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I don't get this one. Seems kinda lame and a long shot.

EPS looks to have drifted back east to me.

Came well west at 18z

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Came well west at 18z

Cluster tightened up towards the west, you are right now that I look again. 

[ineedsnow]

I was planning on going to bed early now I have to stay up for the 0z models looks like ill be sleeping in tomorrow 

[JC-CT]

6 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has a lot of good-looking members....but most of these are rain outside of ORH county into CNE/NNE. The low levels are trash.

 

 

This is why it's hard to care about this one. Would need to create its own cold air, and it needs so much work to become that level of storm.