Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:29 PM, ORH_wxman said:

This could actually be one of those events where some ice happens in lower spots because the in-situ CAD would be extremely shallow. Like ORH could be 34F and raining while ORE or FIT is 29F and ZR. 

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12z GFS shows that

[CoastalWx]

Gfs is basically some precip with the inv trough and that’s it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:51 PM, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is basically some precip with the inv trough and that’s it. 

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Yea, held off on blogging about this one...I'm just tired of doing it over crap

[wx2fish]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:51 PM, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is basically some precip with the inv trough and that’s it. 

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3/4" less qpf than the nam and 6z euro there. Pretty remarkable differences, not that it matters for snow. Might as well root for stein.

[wxeyeNH]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:00 PM, PhineasC said:

I’m just planning for a refresher here.    

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Ha,  a refresher?  Your snow is what,  12 hours old!  Enjoy!

 

[CoastalWx]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:56 PM, wx2fish said:

3/4" less qpf than the nam and 6z euro there. Pretty remarkable differences, not that it matters for snow. Might as well root for stein.

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I am 

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:17 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Winter 2021-22 in a nutshell for many.

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Don't worry, someone will likely post a snowfall map within the next hour showing a big hit 7-10 days from now

 

or

 

Someone will say the pattern looks great after(fill in the date)...

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:48 PM, Professional Lurker said:

Honestly don't remember, sorry.

The silver lining has been constant snow cover in my yard. I'm definitely a pack guy, and realize that typically only a grinch storm will prevent my yard from being snow-covered from late Dec to March.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk


 

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I know Hippy is only around 15”, and probably averages similar. It has been really bad in that area this season for sure. Worse than here. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, held off on blogging about this one...I'm just tired of doing it over crap

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Def not worth a blog. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/6/2022 at 4:45 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

Don't worry, someone will likely post a snowfall map within the next hour showing a big hit 7-10 days from now

 

or

 

Someone will say the pattern looks great after(fill in the date)...

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If there isn't a storm on the map, the weenie default is "MJO goes into phase blank by blank date"

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 2/6/2022 at 5:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If there isn't a storm on the map, the weenie default is "MJO goes into phase blank by blank date"

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...or they spend hours scouring the net for a tweet to post that reads along the lines of

"Winter returns to the east with a vengeance. Mild for a week then the hounds will be released"...

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/6/2022 at 2:50 PM, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like phase 4 is actually cold in the east in March.

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  On 2/6/2022 at 5:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If there isn't a storm on the map, the weenie default is "MJO goes into phase blank by blank date"

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LOL

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/6/2022 at 5:50 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

...or they spend hours scouring the net for a tweet to post that reads along the lines of

"Winter returns to the east with a vengeance. Mild for a week then the hounds will be released"...

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Yea, they have JBs feed on autorefresh

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 2/6/2022 at 5:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

LOL

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Any chance that you are related to Nostradamus???

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/6/2022 at 5:52 PM, Great Snow 1717 said:

Any chance that you are related to Nostradamus???

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No, but I have on weather forums since fall 2006...

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 2/6/2022 at 5:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, but I have on weather forums since fall 2006...

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Shouldn't that read" No, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night"...???

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 2/6/2022 at 3:51 PM, CoastalWx said:

Gfs is basically some precip with the inv trough and that’s it. 

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It did improve at the surface for some, but still nothing exciting (or even interesting really)

[dryslot]

Need to see a sounding, Awful close just from a surface perspective that's a thump on the 12z Euro here of mash.

[wx2fish]

Alot of qpf on the euro, but a torch at 925. Pretty ugly 

[mahk_webstah]

  On 2/6/2022 at 6:12 PM, wx2fish said:

Alot of qpf on the euro, but a torch at 925. Pretty ugly 

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how far n and w does the torching go, if you don't mind.?

[wx2fish]

  On 2/6/2022 at 6:15 PM, mahk_webstah said:

how far n and w does the torching go, if you don't mind.?

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It would be some snow there, but it also keeps most of the qpf pinned closer to the coast. It does hit ME hard though. 

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 2/6/2022 at 6:15 PM, mahk_webstah said:

how far n and w does the torching go, if you don't mind.?

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Vegas....

[mahk_webstah]

  On 2/6/2022 at 6:20 PM, wx2fish said:

It would be some snow there, but it also keeps most of the qpf pinned closer to the coast 

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Isn't it ironic, don't ya think

The mid levels are finally

cool enough north and west

But the qpf beefs east

where the warm air holds tough

isn't it ironic, don't ya think?

It's the blizzard of '78

while Jer's in Californiay,

It's a 20 hour death band

in Wilmington after Ray's moved away.

Isn't it ironic, don't ya think?

A little too ironic....

[forkyfork]

enjoy your rain showers guys <3

[PhineasC]

Models look like 3-6 here at the moment. Nice refresher. Looks like the upslope machine gets rolling too. 

[FXWX]

  On 2/6/2022 at 6:06 PM, dryslot said:

Need to see a sounding, Awful close just from a surface perspective that's a thump on the 12z Euro here of mash.

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[ineedsnow]

18z HRRR for the Springfield to Hartford area  

[CT Rain]

  On 2/6/2022 at 7:36 PM, ineedsnow said:

18z HRRR for the Springfield to Hartford area  

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Wow - yeah. Didn't expect to see that.

[ineedsnow]

  On 2/6/2022 at 7:44 PM, CT Rain said:

Wow - yeah. Didn't expect to see that.

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ya same beefing up the last couple runs.. just enough cold around and soundings support it

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah looks interesting out that way in the valley.  Hopefully cold tucks a bit more and you guys ice...decent setup for it