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Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dryslot
dryslot

Trees were loaded yesterday up around Coburn Mtn when i was there.

Typhoon Tip
Typhoon Tip

Low but growing confidence? I'll keep this comparatively brief ( yeah right LOL ) as there's been some awareness already.  So overnight, the various techniques have begun what think will be an e

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

06z EPS was a lot more interested than 00z    

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Nam is really disjointed, never consolidates like the hrrr. Pretty meh until Maine 

Yeah most guidance is a disjointed mess which probably means this is mostly a non-event until you get to Maine. Could be some marginal advisory snows from N ORH into interior NH but the disjointed look sucks…gonna want to trend it into more of a closed circulation aloft to make this more interesting. 
 

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

NAM still paints a 6” or so snowfall for here. Kicks off some upslope it seems. 

I'm still not sure I buy it but Waterville on Tuesday might line up nicely if it comes through with that QPF just south of the Presidentials.  Though might be a bit too far west?

nam-218-all-vt-total_precip_inch-4354000.thumb.png.5fc1475d53e6a9410e545312f1482831.png

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NW_of_GYX

NW_of_GYX

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm still not sure I buy it but Waterville on Tuesday might line up nicely if it comes through with that QPF just south of the Presidentials.  Though might be a bit too far west?

nam-218-all-vt-total_precip_inch-4354000.thumb.png.5fc1475d53e6a9410e545312f1482831.png

Gonna be there for an industry event Tuesday. Will be hard to leave 4-6” here if that’s the way it works out though. That’ll send this stretch into memorable status for here. Shoot if we end up with what some models are advertising here I may just not bother with Waterville at all. 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm still not sure I buy it but Waterville on Tuesday might line up nicely if it comes through with that QPF just south of the Presidentials.  Though might be a bit too far west?

nam-218-all-vt-total_precip_inch-4354000.thumb.png.5fc1475d53e6a9410e545312f1482831.png

I’m just planning for a refresher here. NAM is overdone most likely, but HRRR looked tasty too. Very fragile setup, it’ll keep shifting around. I have a hot hand last few weeks so why not expect more snow? :)  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

Gonna be there for an industry event Tuesday. Will be hard to leave 4-6” here if that’s the way it works out though. That’ll send this stretch into memorable status for here. Shoot if we end up with what some models are advertising here I may just not bother with Waterville at all. 

Interior SouthWestern Maine is in a good spot for this one. I could see Shawnee being close to the jackpot. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

T CT Interior SouthWestern Maine is in a good spot for this one. I could see Shawnee being close to the jackpot. 

That's real close around GYX. It's a marginal sounding, but hanging around that magic 1000 ft depth of warm air that can be overcome if rates are heavy enough.

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NW_of_GYX

NW_of_GYX

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

T CT Interior SouthWestern Maine is in a good spot for this one. I could see Shawnee being close to the jackpot. 

That would great. This has been a mini weenie spot this winter since we hit on some of the coastals that fringed Conway, bethel and the eastern whites and Mahoosucs.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s puke worthy to see a track like that and rain into the interior. 

It’s kind of a faux sfc track though because the upper air is way west…we get this weird IVT out ahead and the flow at 925/850 is due south. The storm might as well be over ABE. By the time the thing consolidates it’s way northeast of us. Just another turd setup really that masquerades as something that “should” look good for us. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s kind of a faux sfc track though because the upper air is way west…we get this weird IVT out ahead and the flow at 925/850 is due south. The storm might as well be over ABE. By the time the thing consolidates it’s way northeast of us. Just another turd setup really that masquerades as something that “should” look good for us. 

Oh I know, that WAA kills us. But even as it wraps, there’s like no cold to feed in LOL. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Might be an icing event with elevation in spots 

This could actually be one of those events where some ice happens in lower spots because the in-situ CAD would be extremely shallow. Like ORH could be 34F and raining while ORE or FIT is 29F and ZR. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:

I haven't measured this year, but I'd guess that I've got 15" or less season to date. I'd also guess I average 60-65.



Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk
 

That is horrendous for there. How much did you get in 2015-16? That was another historically bad year in NW MA. 

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Professional Lurker

Professional Lurker

Posted
Posted
That is horrendous for there. How much did you get in 2015-16? That was another historically bad year in NW MA. 
Honestly don't remember, sorry.

The silver lining has been constant snow cover in my yard. I'm definitely a pack guy, and realize that typically only a grinch storm will prevent my yard from being snow-covered from late Dec to March.

Sent from my SM-A505U using Tapatalk



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