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Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.


Typhoon Tip
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I think the break point here is gong to be the amplitude of the 850 mb low ...

We're obviously cold enough ( for snow interests ..) here, initially. But what's happened in the guidance up to this point has been a paltry structure at best, at that level.  A stronger one would cut off the SSW flow aloft ...stopping the 850 mb from warming so much.  I'm not sure if this system's warm extends much higher in the atmosphere ( but I haven't admittedly checked - just going by the feel of it... lol). 

Anyway, I like the short term tendency to torque the thermal field there, ENE of Cape Hat ( 'jbenedet' ) ... Maybe there is more structure trying to take shape.  Who knows... 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Good fatties falling again here. Best echoes are stubbornly staying south though.

 

 

Feb7_920amRadar.gif

almost wonder if there's a weak convergence down there...

the sfc pressure has that SE suggestion with the winds, but would slow in the interior where there is deeper situated cold. getting a little bit of a 'pile up' there.

also, wouldn't the growth region of this snow be relatively low right now. I don't believe this current activity is part of that low passage later on..

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