Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[Typhoon Tip]

I’m trying to figure out 

where is this warm up coming from. 

we are in danger of cold capping in here. It’s between 15 and 20° the dp of 10 in the area and cirrus overspreading. It’s gonna be dead calm tomorrow that looks like guidance is gonna bust too warm… 

1997 started that way

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Torch aloft. But the higher elevations of the Berks may get some.

cold air wrapping in at hr36  change to snow at the end?

[PhineasC]

NAM doing NAM things.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

cold air wrapping in at hr36  change to snow at the end?

It night. Maybe 33F snow? The airmass makes me want to vomit. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Torch aloft. But the higher elevations of the Berks may get some.

Don’t the Berks get fringed though?

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I’m trying to figure out 

where is this warm up coming from. 

we are in danger of cold capping in here. It’s between 15 and 20° the dp of 10 in the area and cirrus overspreading. It’s gonna be dead calm tomorrow that looks like guidance is gonna bust too warm… 

1997 started that way

Just off the deck rapidly furnaces. 

[dryslot]

 H92 is torched.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Don’t the Berks get fringed though?

3-6” so more then a fringe.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I can’t believe it’s 14° right now and we are going to be dealing with P-type issues for a coastal tomorrow.  Unreal. 

[wx2fish]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

 H92 is torched.

Yeah even the hrrr down here it's just above the sfc. It was a 32F rain for most of it from MHT to ORH. Fitting for this season. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

3-6” so more then a fringe.

Oh yeah, I had not looked at NAM yet. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Just off the deck rapidly furnaces. 

Hence the ice I guess. 

problem is the 850 mbar to goddamn weak. It’s trying to close off east of the Delmarva but still a south wind at that level up our way

[dryslot]

Just now, wx2fish said:

Yeah even the hrrr down here it's just above the sfc. It was a 32F rain for most of it from MHT to ORH. Fitting for this season. 

Having these mixed events in the heart of winter tells the tale for many.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, dryslot said:

Having these mixed events in the heart of winter tells the tale for many.

It’s brutal because it’s been pretty damn cold winter but not where and when we need it. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I can’t believe it’s 14° right now and we are going to be dealing with P-type issues for a coastal tomorrow.  Unreal. 

That in and of itself is not that crazy to me. I’ve seen short duration do this before in the past

and it already did earlier this year. One might recall… It was 0 to 9 above and 24 hours later we had a rain storm. 
 
But I think that warm layer at 850 is not exceptionally intrusive - they’re calling it a torch. I don’t see it as a torch. I see it +3 …all we need is for this thing to have a little bit more vertical velocity and heavier precipitation and that would become isothermal around 0C. I also think that the 925 is gonna bust too warm. Could be wrong we’ll see

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s brutal because it’s been pretty damn cold winter but not where and when we need it. 

Don't take long to erode the colder air when these systems have winds from the south accompany them.

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You have to come to NH to see real snow this winter.

BTW, not sure if you meant@jculligan

Ha!  I may be remembering his name from a decade ago in BGM.  I think they are both him.  

[Connecticut Appleman]

I'm beginning feel like the WOR crowd is on the island of misfit weenies.  A coastal takes a favorable track and we might be able to squeak out an inch or so.  Can't even hit advisory levels in CT.

[tavwtby]

14 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I can’t believe it’s 14° right now and we are going to be dealing with P-type issues for a coastal tomorrow.  Unreal. 

yeah, the most annoying part of winter imho is cold dry/warm wet, or at least days like today where it's gonna be near 0, and in a couple days ptype concerns?? is what it is I guess, I say if its not going to snow when cold, it can be gone, save money on heating, and wood

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, Connecticut Appleman said:

I'm beginning feel like the WOR crowd is on the island of misfit weenies.  A coastal takes a favorable track and we might be able to squeak out an inch or so.  Can't even hit advisory levels in CT.

You mean good advisory levels. We are under a winter weather advisory...FWIW

[Connecticut Appleman]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

You mean good advisory levels. We are under a winter weather advisory...FWIW

Not that it matters one bit to the outcome, but it will be interesting if Albany adds Litchfield County tomorrow AM (not currently in the Advisory in Litchfield County).

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

You mean good advisory levels. We are under a winter weather advisory...FWIW

Lol…the last two times we’ve had pretty much no winter weather when they’ve issued it.  Let’s see if this time(tomorrow) is the same, and we go for 3 times with no winter weather. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I dunno. That looks like wet snow W-NW of KBOS looking over these FOUS intervals. 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…the last two times we’ve had pretty much no winter weather when they’ve issued it.  Let’s see if this time(tomorrow) is the same, and we go for 3 times with no winter weather. 

I saw some twitter post about if school will be canceled tomorrow in ct

[PhineasC]

6-10" deal here. Hope NAM is right.

[PhineasC]

3k looks pretty crappy. Best precip is too far SE to be snow.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

3k looks pretty crappy. Best precip is too far SE to be snow.

3k is NAM like until hour 20 then jumps to convection to the east and follows it the whole time... This year its probably right

[tavwtby]

nice little stripe on the NAM around here nwrd, maybe squeeze out an inch or two, that an invt look?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

26 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…the last two times we’ve had pretty much no winter weather when they’ve issued it.  Let’s see if this time(tomorrow) is the same, and we go for 3 times with no winter weather. 

There would be bodies in the Hoos if it happens again. Parents have had enough. 

[ineedsnow]

pretty big shift on the RGEM but not like the NAM