Coastal cyclogenesis and minor to moderate impact Feb 8/ 8.5, primarily SE areas ...for now.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

ya same beefing up the last couple runs.. just enough cold around and soundings support it

I was just commenting on this over the Feb thread...   spring on the D10 Euro big time.  It looks hemispherically scaled, too.   It may be bogus, but we've lost the quasi -EPO loading pulses that we've benefited from the last couple of weeks.   The Euro still tries for the 14th but not very hard ... and then everything flips around

Bringing it up because this in the foreground being all thickness challenged, then seeing that Euro ... I'm like "Uh oh - is spring beginning under our noses..."

CPC's MJO tech discussion mentioned recently that the western and central Pacific circulation mode appears to be decoupled from the La Nina.  If that is the case and persists... anyone banking on La Nina climate for spring may want to consider that.

Anyway, I did not perceive marginal+ being so much of an issue as it [apparently] will for this "event", when this thread was started.  I was thinking more marginal-   

I have mentioned this a few times in recent years - so wonder if I neglected..  We seem to have flipped our verification tendencies warm, instead of cold, when verifying marginal outlooks.   We could almost depend on that being the other direction decade(s) ago.  It's like a silent metric about CC ... If a charted event looked globular in the QPF, with lax hydrostatic hgt gradient around 540 dm in 1995, that was automatic blue bonnet surprise.  

This "might" just be an example of a how that is going the other way. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z HRRR for the Springfield to Hartford area  

Long range hrrr lol. 

[WinterWolf]

So after whatever happens Tuesday(most likely nothing), we’re on to spring?  Nice. When should we expect sunny and 65? Better yet, let’s do March of 2012 this year, but we start by mid next week in early February.  Now that’s how you do an early spring.  

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Models look like 3-6 here at the moment. Nice refresher. Looks like the upslope machine gets rolling too. 

Does snowing again after a 15" storm (with below freezing days inbetween) really count as a "refresher" ?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So after whatever happens Tuesday(most likely nothing), we’re on to spring?  Nice. When should we expect sunny and 65? Better yet, let’s do March of 2012 this year, but we start by mid next week in early February.  Now that’s how you do an early spring.  

Bro, March 2012 had that one immaculate week where it was in the 80s and 90s.

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Don't worry, someone will likely post a snowfall map within the next hour showing a big hit 7-10 days from now

 

or

 

Someone will say the pattern looks great after(fill in the date)...

Pattern has been great 36 inches in a month. -6 BN. We winter 

[ineedsnow]

3k NAM has .70 but a temp of 33 for that area HRRR is just a little colder so they ice  close call though

[Go Kart Mozart]

Congrats South Jersey

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pattern has been great for me & E SNE 36 inches in a month. -6 BN. We winter 

FYP

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Bro, March 2012 had that one immaculate week where it was in the 80s and 90s.

Yes, but it was a nice spring overall that year.  Obviously that March of ‘12 was the polar opposite of Feb 15.  The winter that never was(2011-2012) ended, and we were warm and mild for most of that spring.  I was just saying that in response to the winter being over talk.  Cuz if it’s gonna be over, then let’s do it right then. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

FYP

It's All about perspective.  Not bad for NNE either. 

[Damage In Tolland]

WWA issued. Should be interesting next 24 hours in spots 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

FYP

Ya it’s been great in Ginxy’s area, glad for those guys. But it’s been lousy for most of us in central and western areas for sure. Oh well, we can’t control the weather. And yes it’s always about perspective.  And from ours out this way, it’s been lousy.  
 

Would so love to grab a decent event before we send the winter packing however.   Hopefully we can. 

[WinterWolf]

Ahh the year of the winter weather advisories….and absolutely no winter weather/or incredibly lil winter weather happens when they issue these this season. Thursday 1/21, Friday 2/4 there was really no winter weather at all,  and now probably tomorrow into Tuesday 2/7 into 2/8.   It would be nice to actually get some legit winter weather with these Winter Weather Advisories lol.  

[Sugarloaf1989]

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So after whatever happens Tuesday(most likely nothing), we’re on to spring?  Nice. When should we expect sunny and 65? Better yet, let’s do March of 2012 this year, but we start by mid next week in early February.  Now that’s how you do an early spring.  

Torch Tiger says we are onto Summer after a few more Winter events.  Why deal with that pesky Spring season. 

[dryslot]

WWA's are up.

[PhineasC]

56 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Does snowing again after a 15" storm (with below freezing days inbetween) really count as a "refresher" ?

Up here it does. LOL

We like that sparkling look on the snow and more loaded on the trees. 

[ORH_wxman]

Rgem has been cooling (and some other guidance too). The 18z run has a sustained period of snow tomorrow morning/midday for most of interior SNE. It’s not much but 1-2” wouldn’t be shocking. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was just commenting on this over the Feb thread...   spring on the D10 Euro big time.  It looks hemispherically scaled, too.   It may be bogus, but we've lost the quasi -EPO loading pulses that we've benefited from the last couple of weeks.   The Euro still tries for the 14th but not very hard ... and then everything flips around

Bringing it up because this in the foreground being all thickness challenged, then seeing that Euro ... I'm like "Uh oh - is spring beginning under our noses..."

CPC's MJO tech discussion mentioned recently that the western and central Pacific circulation mode appears to be decoupled from the La Nina.  If that is the case and persists... anyone banking on La Nina climate for spring may want to consider that.

Anyway, I did not perceive marginal+ being so much of an issue as it [apparently] will for this "event", when this thread was started.  I was thinking more marginal-   

I have mentioned this a few times in recent years - so wonder if I neglected..  We seem to have flipped our verification tendencies warm, instead of cold, when verifying marginal outlooks.   We could almost depend on that being the other direction decade(s) ago.  It's like a silent metric about CC ... If a charted event looked globular in the QPF, with lax hydrostatic hgt gradient around 540 dm in 1995, that was automatic blue bonnet surprise.  

This "might" just be an example of a how that is going the other way. 

I'm not sure who banked on la nina climo for a big end of winter....la nina climo argues the opposite. I was banking on a SSW that is not materializing.

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pattern has been great 36 inches in a month. -6 BN. We winter 

January was a good month for my area, but not enough to save winter in and of itself. Different for many, which I understand. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Rgem has been cooling (and some other guidance too). The 18z run has a sustained period of snow tomorrow morning/midday for most of interior SNE. It’s not much but 1-2” wouldn’t be shocking. 

That’s interesting since most stuff has it mid- late afternoon into night. If something starts tomorrow morning that’s totally different than other guidance 

[wx2fish]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s interesting since most stuff has it mid- late afternoon into night. If something starts tomorrow morning that’s totally different than other guidance 

18z nam was speeding up too. Precip into CT by mid-morning

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

18z nam was speeding up too. Precip into CT by mid-morning

Maybe the sooner it gets in, better chance of slamming down 1-3” of snow before column warms 

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure who banked on la nina climo for a big end of winter....la nina climo argues the opposite. I was banking on a SSW that is not materializing.

??

me neither - I said banking La Nina climo, period.   as in, "at all"   ...  or 'as much as it could,' might be more apropos.  It's just that if it's decoupled that effectively should cut that factor from forcing circuitry. 

Yeah, the SSW is bit unusual to me.  It seems these QBO -E have been pretty highly correlated in the past. Furthermore, we are in a solar minimum, which is also correlated.   It's like converging statistical inference ...yet still nada.   Interesting.  I have been on it for over a month, and about a month ago, the extend GFS was really shining bright with thermal explosion in it's hour 240 thru 360... Then can kicking started.... that eventually faded into nothing to kick.  I haven't exactly checked in 5 days at this point ...I've given up.

Btw, we don't want one now, because it could blaze away and won't save winter.  It'll ruins spring.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

Up here it does. LOL

We like that sparkling look on the snow and more loaded on the trees. 

Trees were loaded yesterday up around Coburn Mtn when i was there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

??

me neither - I said banking La Nina climo, period.   as in, "at all"   ...  or 'as much as it could,' might be more apropos.  It's just that if it's decoupled that effectively should cut that factor from forcing circuitry. 

Yeah, the SSW is bit unusual to me.  It seems these QBO -E have been pretty highly correlated in the past. Furthermore, we are in a solar minimum, which is also correlated.   It's like converging statistical inference ...yet still nada.   Interesting.  I have been on it for over a month, and about a month ago, the extend GFS was really shining bright with thermal explosion in it's hour 240 thru 360... Then can kicking started.... that eventually faded into nothing to kick.  I haven't exactly checked in 5 days at this point ...I've given up.

Btw, we don't want one now, because it could blaze away and won't save winter.  It'll ruins spring.

I would still take it for a couple of more weeks....given month lag, I would be willing to play with climo fire for about another couple of weeks...but once we hit April, hard pass.

As far as the SSW goes....I wonder if the big uptick in solar activity had something to do with the failure to launch. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Snowy day shaping up 

[UnitedWx]

38 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Trees were loaded yesterday up around Coburn Mtn when i was there.

Coburn Mnt is an awesome area. Been up there some years where there's way too much snow to make it to the top

[ORH_wxman]

Euro still not really interested for SNE outside of NW MA. It starts as a little snow from interior CT around Kevin up to 495/ORH but not much. Maybe a coating. 
 

Very good run for the IZG corridor over to Phin and over to Tamarack’s hood…like 5-10” there. 

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro is stronger and further west hits central NH and Maine pretty good